DTIC ADA326246: The Wary Warriors: The Warriors Future Directions in Japanese Security Policies

142 Pages·6.8 MB·English

by  Defense Technical Information Center

THE WARY
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Fliture Directions inJ apanese Security Policies
Norman DL.e vin -. Mark Lorell +:A rthur Alexander
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The research reported here was sponsored by the United States
Air Force under Contract F49620-91-C-0003. Further informa-
tion may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division,
Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF or the Department of Defense.
ISBN: 0-8330-1406-4
RAND is a nonprofit institution that seeks to improve public
policy through research and analysis. Publications of RAND
do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of the
sponsors of RAND research.
Published 1993 by RAND
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Future Directions inJ apanese
Security Policies
Norman DL.e vin
Mark Lorell
Arthur Alexander
k -) 61i- 4/-F
Prepared for the
United States Air Force
Project AIR FORCE
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
PREFACE
This report presents the findings of a RAND study that assessed fu-
ture directions in Japanese security policies. It is based on research
conducted in 1989 and 1990, which included extensive interviews in
Japan with government officials, senior officers in the Self-Defense
Forces, and leading members of private industry. A draft report was
written in the spring/summer of 1991 and published in September of
that year. When the draft was revised in the spring of 1992 to pro-
duce the current document, modest changes were made to reflect
the dramatic events taking place in the world-particularly the
disintegration of the Soviet Union and the war in the Persian Gulf. It
was not possible, however, to conduct fresh interviews or system-
atically assess the implications of those events for Japanese percep-
tions and security policies.
The research for this report was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force un-
der the auspices of the National Security Strategies Program of
Project AIR FORCE, one of RAND's federally funded research and de-
velopment centers. The findings are intended to be of assistance to
Air Force officers and planners concerned with the future strategic
environment in the Asia/Pacific region and defense cooperation be-
tween Japan and the U.S. They should also be of interest to scholars,
analysts, and policymakers concerned with Japanese politics, secu-
rity policies, defense technologies, and industrial policies, and with
U.S.-Japan relations.
iii
CONTENTS
Preface ......................................... iii
Figures ......................................... vii
Tables ........................................... ix
Summary ........................................ xi
Acknowledgments ................................. xix
Initialisms and Abbreviations ........................ xxi
Chapter
1. INTRODUCTION .............................. 1
2. POLICY ENVIRONMENT ......................... 3
Defense Policy in Japan: The Historic Debate .......... 3
The Evolving Security Environment: Change and
Continuity ................................ 14
External Elements of Change .................... 14
Internal Elements of Change .................... 18
External Elements of Continuity .................... 26
Internal Elements of Continuity .................. 28
Current Situation and Expectations About the Future . 31
Basic Orientation: Hold the Line and Wait and See ... 31
Future Expectations: The World Is Not Necessarily
Getting Better ............................. 34
3. SELF-DEFENSE FORCES ......................... 37
Threat Perceptions ............................. 37
Key Characteristics ............................. 40
V
vi Contents
Ground Self-Defense Force ....................... 42
Maritime Self-Defense Force ...................... 49
Air Self-Defense Force ........................... 56
4. RESOURCE TRENDS AND DEFENSE INDUSTRY
CAPABILITIES ................................. 70
Defense Resources: Trends and Projections ........... 70
GNP Growth ................................. 73
Defense Budget Share of GNP .................... 74
Procurement Share of Defense ................... 74
Differences Between Japanese Civilian and Defense
Industries ................................ 78
Defense Industrial Policy ......................... 80
Technology and Design .......................... 87
Qualitative Assessment .......................... 94
Summary and Outlook .......................... 99
5. PROSPECTS, ALTERNATIVES, AND IMPLICATIONS ..... 106
Japan's Most Likely Direction: A Continuing but Troubled
Partnership ............................... 106
Major Alternative Directions ...................... 112
New Global Partnership: Expanded U.S.-Japan
Cooperation .............................. 113
Detente Defense: Defense Cutbacks and Policy
Equidistance .............................. 114
Autonomous Defense: Nationalism and Military
Buildup .................................. 115
Effects of Directions on SDF Capabilities ............. 116
Other Directions ............................... 120
Im plications .................................. 121
FIGURES
1. Japanese Defense Policy Trend, 1970-1990 ......... 7
2. Defense Spending Trends, 1976-1990 ............ 9
3. Japanese Attitudes on Where SDF Emphasis Should Be
Placed in Future .............. ............. 11
4. Japanese Attitudes on Scale of Defense Budget ...... 12
5. Japanese Attitudes on Best Way to Protect
Japan's Security ............................. 13
6. Japanese Attitudes on Utility of U.S.-Japan
Security Treaty ............................. 25
7. Russian Military Deployments near Japan ......... 39
8. Comparison of Defense Expenditures, 1989 ........ 41
9. Ground Self-Defense Force: How It Compares ...... 46
10. Maritime Self-Defense Force: How It Compares ..... 52
11. Air Self-Defense Force: Projections and Current
Com parisons .............................. 60
12. Projections of Future Defense Acquisition ......... 76
13. Sources of Japanese Fighter Aircraft Subsystems ..... 89
14. Sources of Japanese Destroyer Subsystems ......... 92
15. Illustrative ASDF Projections for Year 2000 ......... 117
16. Illustrative MSDF Projections for Year 2000 ........ 118
17. Illustrative GSDF Projections for Year 2000 ......... 119
Vii
TABLES
1. Trends in Japanese Defense Spending, 1981-1989 ... 8
2. U.S.-Japan Joint Military Exercises, 1978-1988 ...... 9
3. Defense Expenditure Trends ................... 71
4. Defense and GNP Expenditures and Growth Rates ... 72
5. Origins of Selected Japanese Military Systems ...... 95
ix
SUMMARY
This report describes our assessment of how changes in the domes-
tic, regional, and international environments are likely to affect fu-
ture Japanese security policies and defense cooperation between
Japan and the U.S. We focused on two key areas in making our as-
sessment: the broad policy trends in Japan and Japanese perspec-
tives on evolving regional and global developments, and the force
structure and operational capabilities of Japan's Self-Defense Forces
(SDF). We also examined Japanese defense resource and procure-
ment trends with a view to assessing how Japanese technological de-
velopments and industrial policy decisions are likely to affect the
Japanese force posture. As a final step, we arrived at what we see as
the most likely prospect for Japanese security policies over the com-
ing decade, the main alternatives to this most likely direction, and
the implications of all these directions for the U.S. Air Force and,
more broadly, the U.S. Our findings call into question the wide-
spread view that Japan will inevitably move toward major re-
armament and an independent military posture.
Indeed, current trends suggest that the most likely prospect for Japan
(our baseline projection) is a continuation of its generalp olicy direc-
tion. The fact is that Japan's general approach has been quite suc-
cessful. The Japanese have gradually built up a significant self-de-
fense capability-i.e., a capability whose purpose is not to threaten
Japan's neighbors, but to provide for the defense of Japanese terri-
tory and immediately surrounding areas against small-scale acts of
aggression-in the face of strong domestic and regional opposition
to Japanese "rearmament." They have provided a foundation and
infrastructure for further military expansion should international
xi
xii Summary
conditions make it necessary and domestic conditions allow it to
take place. And they have minimized the economic burdens that
these efforts entail while ensuring continued U.S. involvement in
Japan's defense. The success of this general policy reinforces bu-
reaucratic inertia and puts the burden of proof on those who argue
that major changes are required to meet Japanese national interests.
Japan's fundamental conservatism also bolsters the prospects for
continuity. Faced with significantly increased international uncer-
tainties and domestic political, economic, and social difficulties,
Japanese leaders will move cautiously. They will keep Japan's basic
security framework, including the Constitutional renunciation of war
"as a sovereign right of the nation" and ban on the maintenance of
"war potential." They will also keep the host of policies adopted over
the last three-and-a-half decades that are designed to ensure a con-
tinued, but gradual and fundamentally defensive, military buildup.
Japanese threat perceptions are likely to move away from the singu-
lar preoccupation with Russia toward a more variegated focus on
dangers within Asia, particularly those related to the Korean penin-
sula situation and China's future strategic direction. The multitude
of such regional dangers, coupled with growing uncertainties about
the long-term U.S. military presence and continuing strains in
Russia-Japan relations, will prevent a free fall in Japanese defense
spending.
The military capabilities of the SDF will thus continue to improve in-
crementally, although at a reduced rate compared to that of the past
decade because of slower economic growth, downward political
pressures on defense spending, and increased priority on manpower,
supplies, and logistics. There will not, however, be major changes in
the force structure's size or overall capabilities. The SDF will remain
uniquely defensive in orientation, relatively unbalanced in terms of
force structure, and deficient in several critical operational and sup-
port areas. Their ability to take over U.S. military roles will remain
highly problematic.
At the same time, indigenous R&D and domestic production will al-
most surely receive greater emphasis, but the rapid growth in pro-
curement expenditures will slow over the course of the decade. In
the absence of major changes, Japan will not develop a major indige-
nous arms production capacity, certainly not one that would rule out