DTIC ADA274464: Tropical Cyclone Report, 1992

280 Pages·13.2 MB·English

by  Defense Technical Information Center

AD-A274 46
9
1992 ;JANOi t
ANNUAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE REPORT
94-00042
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
GUAM, MARIANA ISLANDS
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FRONT COVER CAPTION: An unusual picture of the concentric eye walls of Super
Typhoon Gay (31W) as viewed by the passive microwave imager aboard the Defense
Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft on 191826Z November. The
dense cirrus overcast that masks the outer concentric eye wall is transparent in the
microwave spectrum, but would be opaque in the visual and infrared. The
Meteorological Imagery, Data Display, and Analysis System (MIDDAS) combined the
data from three channels (85 GHz horizontally polarized, 85 GHz vertically polarized,
and 37 GHz vertically polarized) to make this multispectral image.
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DTIC TAB
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U. S. NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND CENTER
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
COMNAVMARIANAS
PSC 489, BOX 12
FPO AP 96536-0051
DONALD A. MAUTNER
CAPTAIN, UNITED STATES NAVY
COMMANDING OFFICER
CHARLES P. GUARD
LIEUTENANT COLONEL, UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
DIRECTOR, JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
COMMANDER, DETACHMENT 1, 633d OPERATIONS SUPPORT SQUADRON
STAFF
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
LCDR ANTHONY A. MARTINEZ USN TDO, DEPUTY DIRECTOR
*LCDR ROBERT L. BEARD USN TDO, DEPUTY DIRECTOR
CAPT STEPHEN C. HALLUN USAF TDO, TECHNIQUE DEVELOPMENT
CAPT JOHN S. SHATTUCK USAF TDO
LT THOMAS H. CECERE USN TDO
LT GREGORY SALVATO USN TDO
**LT STACY R. STEWART USNR TDO
*LT DAVID J. STREMLER USN TDO
AG2 RONALD H. BRYAN USN TDA, LPO
AG3 BONNIE J. CAMPBELL USN TDA. STATISTICS
*AG3 HOLLY L. HOULIHAN USN TDA. STATISTICS
AG3 MARK A. WIREMAN USN IDA
*SRA JANET E KEMBLE USAF TDA
*AGAN PHARAOH J. BELL USN TDA
*AIC TIMOTHY J. GALLAGHER USAF TDA, STATISTICS
AIC SEAN R. VOLOM USAF TDA
AIC STACY L. SIMON USAF TDA
DET 1, 633 OSS
*CAPT DANIEL N. SHOEMAKER USAF TDO, TECHNIQUE DEVELOPMENT
*CAPT ROBERT G. HUDSON USAF OIC. USPACOM SAT NETWORK
CAPT CHRISTOPHER K. BROOKS USAF OIC, USPACOM SAT NETWORK
I LT SCOTT C. JACOBS USAF DATA DEVELOPMENT
MSGT JOY L. HARDING USAF SAT FORECASTER; NCOIC
TSGT PHILLIP A. ROSEBERRY USAF SAT FORECASTER
TSGT TERESA A. deBOER USAF SAT FORECASTER
TSGT WILLIAM GATES, JR. USAF SAT FORECASTER
TSGT JEFFREY E. OAKES USAF SAT FORECASTER
TSGT THEODORE V. MUSTAIKES, JR. USAF SAT FORECASTER
TSGT JAMES G. BROCK USAF SAT FORECASTER
*TSGT DANILO 0. MONTILLANO USAF CHIEF INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
SSGT VINCENT T. AGUON USAF CHIEF INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
*SSGT RAYMOND L. SOUZA, JR. USAF SAT FORECASTER
*SSGT DANIEL T. EBBERT USAF SAT FORECASTER
ATCR STAFF
CAPT ELIZABETH B. BORELLI USAF TDO, BEST TRACK OFFICER, EDITOR
CAPT DAN B. MUNDELL USAF TDO, STATISTICS OFFICER
MR FRANK H. WELLS USN TECHNICAL EDITOR
*SGT BRIAN L. McDONALD USAF SENIOR TDA, GRAPHICS
*SGT CARLOS A. DELANUEZ USAF TDA, GRAPHICS
*SRA CORNELIUS MASSEY USAF TDA, GRAPHICS
P "#3 DAVID L. HAZEL USN TDA, GRAPHICS, STATISTICS
ONR POST -DOCTORATE FELLOW
DR MARK A. LANDER UNIVERSITY OF GUAM
* TRANSFERRED DURING 1992
ACTIVE DUTY TRAINING
ii
FOREWARD
The Annual Tropical Cyclone Report is western North Pacific and North Indian Ocean
prepared by the staff of the Joint Typhoon tropical cyclone warnings.
Warning Center (JTWC), a combined Air Special thanks to: the men and women of
Force/Navy organization operating under the the Alternate Joint Typhoon Warning Center for
command of the Commanding Officer, U.S. standing in for JTWC which was incapacitated
Naval Oceanography Command Center/Joint for 11 days after Typhoon Omar's passage; Fleet
Typhoon Warning Center, Guam. The JTWC Numerical Oceanography Center for their
was founded 1 May 1959 when the unfaltering operational and software support;
Commander-in-Chief Pacific (USCINCPAC) the Naval Research Laboratory for their
forces directed that a single tropical cyclone dedicated research and forecast improvement
warning center be established for the western initiatives; the Air Force Global Weather
North Pacific region. The operations of JTWC Central for continued satellite support and
are guided by CINCPAC Instruction microwave development efforts; the 633d
(CINCPACINST) 3140.1V. Communications Squadron, Operating Location
The mission of JTWC is multifaceted and Charlie and the Operations and Equipment
includes: Support departments of the Naval
1. Continuous monitoring of all tropical Oceanography Command Center, Guam for
weather activity in the Northern and Southern their high quality support; all the men and
Hemispheres, from 1800 east longitude women of the ships and facilities ashore
westward to the east coast of Africa, and the throughout the JTWC AOR, and especially on
prompt issuance of appropriate advisories and Guam, who took the observations and
alerts when tropical cyclone development is communicated them with pride that became the
anticipated. basis for our analyses, forecasts and post
2. Issuance of warnings on all significant analyses; the staff at National Oceanic and
tropical cyclones in the above area of Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National
responsibility. Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information
3. Determination of requirements for Service (NESDIS) for their tropical cyclone
tropical cyclone reconnaissance and assignment position and intensity support; the personnel of
of appropriate priorities. Tropical Cyclone Motion-1992 (TCM-92) for
4. Post-storm analysis of significant tropical sharing their data and understanding of tropical
cyclones occurring within the western North cyclones; the personnel of the Pacific Fleet
Pacific and North Indian Oceans, which Audio-Visual Center, Guam for their assistance
includes an in-depth analysis of tropical in the reproduction of satellite imagery for this
cyclones of note and all typhoons. report; the Navy Publications and Printing
5. Cooperation with the Naval Research Service Branch Office, Guam; Dr. Bob Abbey
Laboratory, Monterey, California on operational and the Office of Naval Research for their
evaluation of tropical cyclone models and support to the University of Guam for the Post-
forecast aids, and the development of new Doctorate Fellow at JTWC; Dr. Mark Lander
techniques to support operational forecast for his training efforts, suggestions and valuable
scenarios. insights; and AG3 Dave Hazel for his excellent
Changes this year include: 1) wind area support with the desktop publishing system and
radius threshold of 30kt on warnings increased graphics.
to 35kt ; and, 2) 36-hour forecasts added to
iii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam JTWC forecasts were 24 percent better across
(JTWC) experienced the busiest year in its 33- the board, indicating that JTWC forecasts were
year history during 1992, eclipsing the record- very good despite a relatively difficult forecast
setting 1991 year by 250 warnings. In addition year. In the Southern Hemisphere, forecast
to the massive warning workload, the Center errors for the second straight year were below
also supported several contingencies and normal, and in the North Indian Ocean the
scientific field experiments, and endured the forecast errors were smaller than the long term
assault of five typhoons in less than a 3-month average for 24 hours, although for 48 and 72
period that included Typhoon Omar which hours they were slightly larger. Intensity
blasted Guam with 105-kt sustained winds and forecast errors for western North Pacific
caused $457 million in damages to the island. tropical cyclones were smaller than average at
JTWC warnings were crucial to the safe 24 hours and 48 hours, but showed no
deployment of ships, aircraft and personnel improvement over the long term mean at 72
involved with Operations RESTORE HOPE, hours.
FULL ACCOUNTING, and PROVIDE JTWC and its Air Force satellite
COMFORT. JTWC's participation in such reconnaissance component, Det 1, 633d
experiments as the TCM-92 (a Naval Operations Support Squadron, continued to
Postgraduate School/ONR-sponsored mini-field improve capabilities through the acquisition and
experiment), GTE/PEM-West (a NASA exploitation of new technology. The
atmospheric chemistry field expedition), and Meteorological Imagery, Data Display, and
TOGA COARE (an international air-sea Analysis System (MIDDAS) gained the
interaction field experiment) greatly contributed capability to process and display all polar
to the success of each. orbiting satellite data in addition to
In 1992, JTWC issued 1405 warnings, geostationary data. The Mission Sensor
significantly surpassing the 1990 and 1991 Tactical Imaging Computer (MISTIC) gained
records of 1139 and 1155 warnings, the capability to co-register microwave imager
respectively. Of the 159 days of the year JTWC data with conventional infrared data. JTWC
was in warning status, 75 of those days had at was also able to routinely obtain worldwide
least two storms, 27 days at least three storms at microwave imager data from FNOC and
the same time, and 3 days had four storms manipulate it on the MISTIC. And the Naval
occurring simultaneously. JTWC's track Research Lab began work on the
forecast performance in 1992 for the western SPAWRSYSCOM-funded follow-on system to
North Pacific was the third best in Center's the current Automated Tropical Cyclone
history, despite the workload. When compared Forecast System (ATCF).
to the climatology-persistence model, CLIPER,
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREW O RD ......................................................................................................................................
EXECUTIVE SUM M A RY ................................................................................................................... iv
1. O PERATIO NAL PROCED UR ES .................................................................................................... 1
1.1 General ................................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 D ata Sources ........................................................................................................................ 1
1.3 Com m unications ......................................................................................................... 2
1.4 D ata Displays ....................................................................................................................... 5
1.5 A nalyses .............................................................................................................................. 5
1.6 Forecast Procedures ........................................................................................................ 5
1.7 Wa rnings .............................................................................................................................. 8
1.8 Prognostic Reasoning M essages .................................................................................... 9
1.9 Tropical Cyclone Form ation A lerts ............................................................................... 9
1.10 Significant Tropical W eather Advisories ........................................................................ 9
2. RECO NNA ISSA NC E A ND FIXES .......................................................................................... 11
2.1 General ............................................................................................................................... 11
2.2 Reconnaissance Availability .......................................................................................... 11
2.3 Satellite Reconnaissance Sum m ary ............................................................................... 11
2.4 Radar Reconnaissance Sum m ary .................................................................................. 15
2.5 Tropical Cyclone Fix D ata ............................................................................................. 15
3. SUMMARY OF NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES ............................................................ 19
3.1 General ............................................................................................................................... 19
3.2 W estern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones .................................................................... 24
INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL CYCLONES
Inial.Cyxclon Author EMag T Igl.x one Autr Eagt
(01W) TY Axel Stremler .............. 36 (17W) TY Ryan Mundell ............ 92
(01C) TS Ekeka Mundell ............... 42 (18W) TY Sibyl Borelli .............. 96
(02W) TY Bobbie Borelli ................. 44 (19W ) TY Ted Cecere ................. 100
(03W) TY Chuck Borelli ................. 48 (20W ) TS Val Salvato ................ 105
(04W ) TS Deanna Borelli .................. 51 (21W) TS Ward M undell ............... 107
(05W ) TY Eli Martinez .............. 53 (22W) TS Zack Borelli ................. 110
(06W) TS Faye Cecere ................. 56 (23W) STY Yvette Cecere ................. 112
(07W) TY Gary Mundell ............... 58 (24W) TY Angela Salvato ................ 116
(08W) TS Helen Salvato ................ 61 (25W) TY Brian Mundell ............... 120
(09W) TS Irving Cecere ................. 63 (26W) TY Colleen Borelli ................. 126
(10W) TY Janis Martinez .............. 67 (27W) TS Dan Mundell ............... 130
(11W) TY Kent Salvato ................ 70 (28W) STY Elsie Cecere ................ 136
(12W ) TY Lois M undell ............... 73 (29W) TD 29W Borelli ................. 139
(13W ) TS Mark Borelli ................. 75 (30W ) TY Forrest Salvato ................ 141
(14W) TS Nina Cecere ................. 77 (31W) STY Gay Shattuck .............. 145
(15W ) TY Omar Martinez .............. 79 (32W ) TY Hunt Borelli ................. 152
(16W) TS Polly Salvato ........... 88
V
Ea gt
3.3 North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones .................................................. 155
INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL CYCLONES
N=w Ewg
TC 01B .................................... 158
TC 02A ................................... 160
TC 03B .................................... 162
TC 04B .................................... 164
TC 05B .................................... 166
TC 06A ................................... 168
TC 07B .................................... 170
TC 08B .................................... 172
TC 09B .................................... 174
TC 10B .................................... 176
TC IIA ................................... 178
TC 12A ................................... 180
Forrest (30W) .......................... 141
4. SUMMARY OF SOUTH PACIFIC AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
TROPICAL CYCLONES ..................................................................................... 183
4.1 General ................................................................................................... 183
4.2 South Pacific and South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones .................... 183
5. SUM MARY OF FORECAST VERIFICATION ................................................. 191
5.1 Annual Forecast Verification ................................................................. 169
5.2 Comparison of Objective Techniques .................................................... 205
5.3 Testing and Results ................................................................................ 208
6. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING VERIFICATION STATISTICS ................ 213
6.1 General .................................................................................................. 213
6.2 W arning Verification Statistics ............................................................... 213
7. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUPPORT SUM MARY ............................................... 249
BIBLIOGRAPHY ...................................................................................................... 257
APPEND IX A - Definitions ....................................................................................... 259
APPENDIX B - Names for Tropical Cyclones .......................................................... 262
APPENDIX C - Contractions .................................................................................... 263
APPENDIX D - Past Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports ........................................... 266
APPENDIX E - Distribution List .............................................................................. 267
vi
1. OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES
1.1 GENERAL 1.2 DATA SOURCES
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 1.2.1 COMPUTER PRODUCTS Numerical
-
provides a variety of routine products and ser- and statistical guidance are available from the
vices to the organizations within its area of USN Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center
responsibility (AOR), including: (FNOC) at Monterey, California. These prod-
ucts along with selected ones from the National
1.1.1 SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER Meteorological Center (NMC) are received
ADVISORY - Issued daily or more frequently through the Naval Environmental Data Network
as needed, to describe all tropical disturbances (NEDN), the Naval Environmental Satellite
and their potential for further development dur- Network (NESN), and by microcomputer dial-
ing the advisory period. A separate bulletin is up connections using military and commercial
issued for the western Pacific and the Indian telephone lines. Numerical guidance is also
Ocean. received from international sources as well.
1.1.2 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 1.2.2 CONVENTIONAL DATA - These data
ALERT - Issued when synoptic or satellite sets are comprised of land and shipboard sur-
data indicate that the development of a signifi- face observations, and enroute meteorological
cant tropical cyclone is likely within 12 to 24 observations from commercial and military air-
hours in a specified area. craft (AIREPS) recorded within six hours of
synoptic times, and cloud-motion winds derived
1.1.3 TROPICAL CYCLONE/ TROPICAL from satellite data. The conventional data is
DEPRESSION WARNING - Issued periodi- hand- and computer-plotted, and hand-analyzed
cally throughout each day to provide forecasts in the tropics for the surface/gradient and 200-
of position, intensity, and wind distribution for mb levels. These analyses are prepared twice
tropical cyclones in JTWC's AOR. daily from OOOOZ and 1200Z synoptic data.
Also, FNOC supplies JTWC with computer
1.1.4 PROGNOSTIC REASONING MES- generated analyses and prognoses, from OOOOZ
SAGES - Issued with warnings for tropical and 1200Z synoptic data, at the surface, 850-
depressions, tropical storms, typhoons and super mb, 700-mb, 500-mb, 400-mb, and 200-mb lev-
typhoons in the western North Pacific to discuss els, deep-layer-mean winds, wind shear, and
the rationale for the content of JTWC's warn- geopotential height change charts.
ings.
1.2.3 SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE -
1.1.5 PRODUCT CHANGES - The contents Meteorological satellite imagery recorded at
and availability of the above JTWC products are USAF/USN ground sites and USN ships supply
set forth in USCINCPACINST 3140.1V. day and night coverage in JTWC's AOR.
Changes to USCINCPACINST 3140.1V, and Interpretation of these satellite data provides
JTWC products and services are proposed and tropical cyclone positions and estimates of cur-
discussed at the Annual Tropical Cyclone rent and forecast intensities. The USAF tactical
Conference. satellite sites and Air Force Global Weather
Central currently receive and analyze special
1