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A D-A 267 9 58V1 ENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704.0,88 C r dae' rdi4It( Ie n.-gtru6rý p oefr irne Soprmonaszei.o nir Ciý.eonidnCc Iormen mtimenets 1r-er r.pA%rd.Pinwor nt~h is,] butardtoe n estsiaPlacrc hoCrfrlC. !d .5y -;;M Wn~ h~ip - 1 C1fh.. .. pa' ". gn" d. ... tO t fre ,3' -fc(cid:127),(cid:127),cm en.! and 8uce-., PaOer'(cid:127)C,, -lCuCtion Prol ect (07()J4-0188). Wasn tic, 0C 2U0 13 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REP-_RT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED 1 9 3-015 THE SI SjX&§fff 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Flood Reconstruction in Southern Illinois Using Tree Rings 6. AUTHOR(S) Susan Marie Loomans 17. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER I I AFIT Student Attending: Univ of Illinois AFIT/CI/CIA-93-015 9. SPONSORING, MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORIN/ /MONITORING DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AGENCY REPORT NUMBER AFIT/CI 2950 P STREET WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH 45433-7765 11. SUFLEMEN7ARY N7CES 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for Public Release IAW 190-1 Distribution Unlimited MICHAEL M. BRICKER, SMSgt, USAF Chief Administration 13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words) SDTIC - -... ELECTE AUG 17,1993 S9 19061 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 177 16. PRICE CODE P17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT OF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT NSN 7540-0.51,B6-5505 St,.r,,d Corm 29i (peo '-89) FLOOD RECONSTRUCTION IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS USING TREE RINGS BY SUSAN MAkIE LOOMANS B.S., United States Air Force Academy, 1987 B.S., Texas A & M University, 1988 THESIS Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geography in the Graduate College of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1993 Urbana, Illinois ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Wayne M. Wendland, for direction in conducting this research, and for many hours of field assistance and patient manuscript review. Thanks also to Henri Grissino-Mayer, who aided in the computational aspects of dendrochronology, and to others from the Tree-Ring Laboratory in Arizona who gave me advice and training in dendrochronology. Also, this work would not have been possible without support form the Midwest Climate Center. I appreciate the help of committee members Scott Isard and Richard Phipps. I am grateful to Donald Johnson for geomorphic consulting and work at the study site. Thanks, too, to field workers Dean Olson, Paul Jahn, and Dave Grimley. The following people and/or agencies were very helpful in providing information and other types of assistance: Beth Shimp, U.S. Forest Service (Harrisburg Office); Dr. Lawrence R. Stritch, Zone Botanist Shawnee/Wayne-Hoosier National Forests; Gary Balding, U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division (Urbana office); Illinois State Water Survey, Surface Water Section; Illinois State Water Survey, Climate Section. Finally, thanks to the U.S. Air Force for allowing me the time and opportunity to complete this program. DTIC TAB Unannfounced ----a-segbit n For DTICQ&LITEN8PCTDSJUStificeat±o usu Avallblt? Codes iii -Cpse TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ............................................ vi LIST OF TABLES ............................................. viii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .................................. 1 I.A. Purpose and scope ..................................... 2 1.A.1 Justification for research ....................... 2 I.A.2 Objective ........................................ 3 I.A.3 Hypotheses ....................................... 3 I.A.4 Organization of the thesis ....................... 4 L.B Concepts in dendrochronology .......................... 5 l.B.1 Tree response to climatic inputs ................. 5 l.B.2 The importance of site selection ................. 7 l.B.3 The importance of species selection .............. 7 1.C Magnitude and frequency of floods ..................... 9 1.D Paleoflood analysis using tree rings .................. 10 I.D.1 Flood rings ...................................... 10 1.D.2 Flood scars ...................................... 13 1.D.3 Floodplain-upland comparisons .................... 15 l.D.4 Time series analysis ............................. 16 1.D.5 Limitations of flood reconstruction .............. 16 CHAPTER 2: STUDY AREA .................................... 18 2.A Basin description ..................................... 18 2.B Geology and Geomorphology ............................. 20 2.C Climate and vegetation ................................ 20 2.D Field site description ................................ 22 2.E Known flood history ................................... 24 2.E.1 Flooding from high flow of the Big Muddy River .... 24 2.E.2 Backwater flooding from the Mississippi River ..... 25 CHAPTER 3: METHODS ........................................ 28 3.A Data acquisition and analysis ......................... 29 3.A.1 Tree cores ....................................... 29 iv 3.A.2 Hydrologic data .................................. 31 3.A.3 Climate data ..................................... 32 3.B Model development .................................... 32 3.B.1 Crossdating ...................................... 32 3.B.2 Standardization .................................. 33 3.B.3 Correlation analysis ............................. 34 3.B.4. Comparisons ...................................... 39 3.B.5 Bivariate linear regression ...................... 40 CHAPTER 4: RESULTS ....................................... 41 4.A Chronology development ................................ 41 4.A.1 Crossdating and verification ..................... 41 4.A.2 Standardization .................................. 50 4.B Correlation with environmental variables .............. 53 4.B.1 Correlation with temperature ..................... 53 4.B.2 Correlation with precipitation ................... 55 4.B.3 Correlation with PDSI and PHDI ................... 55 4.B.4 Correlation with discharge ....................... 56 4.C Regression analysis results ........................... 58 4 C.1 Model development ................................ 58 4.C.2 Verification of regression model ................. 60 4.D Flood ring analysis ................................... 65 4.E Results of elevational comparisons .................... 69 4.E.1 Assumptions of ANOVA ............................. 70 4.E.2 Variables ........................................ 71 4.E.3 Results of ANOVA ................................. 73 CHAPTER 5: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ....................... 74 REFERENCES ................................................. 77 APPENDIX A: PDSI and PHDI ................................. 83 APPENDIX B: Computer programs ............................. 85 APPENDIX C: Correlation results ........................... 88 APPENDIX D: Standardized indices for chronologies ......... 101 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 1 Annual ring growth ................................. 6 2 Site influence on tree sensitivity ................. 8 3 Flood ring composed of large vessels in the latewood, having the appearance of a false ring ... 12 4 Illustrations of (a) undamaged tree, (b) tree injured by physical impact from flooding, (c,d) formation of callus tissue, (e) healed flood scar . .............................................. 14 5 Big Muddy River drainage basin in southern Illinois . .......................................... 19 6 Dillon Bend section of the Big Muddy River ........ 23 7 Distribution of trees sampled along the Dillon Bend reach of the Big Muddy River ................. 30 8 Raw ring widths from low-level (floodplain) trees fitted with growth trend curves using the computer program ARSTAN ................. ................... 35 9 Raw ring widths from. mid-level trees fitted with growth trend curves using the computer program ARSTAN ............................................. 36 10 Raw ring widths from high-level trees fitted with growth trend curves using the computer program ARSTAN ............................................. 37 11 Standardized chronologies for the floodplain, mid-slope, and high-level sites at Dillon Bend .... 51 12 Standardized chronology from the Dillon Bend high site (several species of oak) plotted against TOP: Estes' Pine Hills site (shortleaf pine), and BOTTOM: Duvick's Giant City State Park site ....... 52 vi 13 Actual and reconstructed January through July discharge for Thebes, Illinois, from regression based on high-level trees ......................... 62 14 Flow frequency plots constructed of actual and reconstructed discharge for Thebes, Illinois ...... 64 15 Time scale plot of flood rings discovered after examining floodplain oak and hackberry trees ...... 67 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Climate data for Carbondale, Illinois ............. 21 2 Stage data for major floods (greater than 10.0 m) in the Big Muddy River basin, recorded at the Murphysboro gaging station .................... 26 3 Stage data for major floods on the Upper Mississippi River, recorded at the Thebes gaging station ........................................... 28 4 Descriptive statistics on floodplain tree cores after completion of crossdating procedures 42 5 Descriptive statistics on mid-slope tree cores after completion of crossdating procedures 43 6 Descriptive statistics on high-level tree cores after completion of crossdating procedures 44 7 Output statistics from the computer program MEASURE, which compares two independent measurements of core DB01 ...................................... 46 8 Output statistics from the computer program MEASURE, which compares two independent measurements of core DB08 ........................................ 47 9 Output statistics from the computer program MEASURE, which compares two independent measurements of core DB21 ...................................... 48 10 Output statistics from the computer program MEASURE, which compares two independent measurements of core DB38 ...................................... 49 11 Results of verification of the floodplain and high-level regression equations based on comparison of computed test statistics and verification criteria .......................................... 61 viii 12 Information on flood rings from floodplain trees at Dillon Bend .................................... 68 13 Values of categorical variables ratio and stage and prediction agreement statistics fnr each year of the combined floodplain/high-level chronology .. 72 14 Results of Analysis cý Variance between categorical measures of the floodplain/high-level ratio variable, and a categorical measure of peak annual stage .... 73 ix CHAPTZR 1 INTRODUCTION Water management is a crucial element in directing future land development across the United States. Measures are often taken to minimize flood hazards while at the same time maintaining an adequate water supply for consumption, irrigation, sewage treatment and aquifer regeneration (Stockton, 1975). Water resource management activities directed at regulating stream runoff must address a wide variety of considerations, including the frequency and magnitude of floods. The confidence of flood frequency analysis is dependent on the existence and length of gaged records (Kochel and Baker, 1982; Martens, 1992). A lack of long-duration hydrologic records for United States streams has limited the confidence of flood frequency estimates, and created an opportunity for data contributions by proxy methods. The science of tree-ring analysis, or dendrochronology, can provide a valuable source of paleoflood information (Martens, 1992; McCord, 1990; Sigafoos, 1964). The year and, often, magnitude of significant floods can be determined from the annual ring by considering the geomorphic situation and biological response of trees to flooding. The growth of tree rings primarily depends on soil nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorous, potassium, calcium, n'gnesium, and sulfur), and climatic factors (mainly temperature and soil moisture) (Kramer and Kozlowski, 1960). By calibrating ring growth to recorded weather and discharge data, tree-ring information can be used to reconstruct yearly variations in climate. These relationships can be applied through the life of the tree, thus extending recent climatic and hydrologic records back in time (Fritts, 1976). 1