Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing

530 Pages·2015·100.798 MB·English

by  Joaquin Andreu Alvarez

Droughts occur in arid and semi-arid areas of the world, but also in humid areas, and Editors
can develop over short periods (fl ash drought) or longer periods (seasons/decades). Even Andreu
though progress has been made, it remains diffi cult to adequately charac terize, monitor,
Solera
forecast and manage droughts, due to their multi-faceted nature.
Paredes-Arquiola
Usually, drought does not directly cause fatalities, but a wide range of socio-eco nomic and
environmental effects may occur, and, depending on the region, water-and food-related Haro-Monteagudo
diseases and casualties can be triggered. Europe has regularly been hit hard by drought van Lanen
(e.g. recently Russia), and large portions of USA, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, Central
Asia, South Africa, the Great Horn of Africa, or Australia, have been affected by drought.
So globally, drought affects more regions, and more people, than other natural hazards.
Additionally, climate change projections for many areas indicate that droughts are likely
to become more frequent and more severe due to the increased variability of precipita-
tion and temperature, tied in some cases to decreased aver age precipitation and increased
average temperature. Hence, there is an urgent need to improve drought preparedness
through measures that reduce vulnerability to drought and the risks they pose, in particu-
lar considering the uncertain future.
Drought. Research and Science Policy Interfacing includes contributions to the Inter-
national Conference on DROUGHT: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing (Valencia, RD
e
Spain, 10-13 March 2015), the fi nal event of the EU FP7 research project DROUGHT- s
e
R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing). The book a
rr
aims to foster development of drought policies and plans to reduce risk and vulnerability, c
h
and to enhance preparedness and resilience. The book addresses the following topics : (1) a
past, present and future of droughts (natural hazards, identifi cation and characterization, ndo
impacts); (2) indicators, monitoring and forecasting (including early warning systems), S
c
risk and vulnerability assessment and reduction at different scales, and (3) preparedness ieu
n
and mitigation options (risk and vulnerability perception, water management and govern- c
e
ance under drought condi tions, design and implementation of drought policies and plans -P Drought
og
from the local to the regional, national and international levels, research Interfaces with l
drought policies). icy
Drought. Research and Science Policy Interfacing will be of interest to researchers and Inh
t
professionals in those fi elds related to drought, such as climatology, meteorology, hydrol- e
r
ogy, agronomy, ecology, water econ omy, and water management, as well as to policy mak- f
at
ers involved in drought prepared ness and mitigation strategies at local, regional, national c
in
and international levels. g
Research and Science-Policy Interfacing
Editors
Joaquín Andreu
Abel Solera
Javier Paredes-Arquiola
David Haro-Monteagudo
Henny van Lanen
an informa business
DROUGHT: RESEARCH AND SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACING
DDRROOUUGGHHTT--FFMM..iinndddd ii 11//1166//22001155 1111::5555::1166 AAMM
DDRROOUUGGHHTT--FFMM..iinndddd iiii 11//1166//22001155 1111::5555::1166 AAMM
PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DROUGHT: RESEARCH
AND SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACING, VALENCIA, SPAIN, 10–13 MARCH 2015
Drought: Research and
Science-Policy Interfacing
Editors
Joaquín Andreu, Abel Solera, Javier Paredes-Arquiola &
David Haro-Monteagudo
Instituto de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente,
Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain
Henny A.J. Van Lanen
W ageningen University, The Netherlands
DDRROOUUGGHHTT--FFMM..iinndddd iiiiii 11//1166//22001155 1111::5555::1166 AAMM
CRC Press/Balkema is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK
Typeset by V Publishing Solutions Pvt Ltd., Chennai, India
Printed and bound in Great Britain by CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY
All rights reserved. No part of this publication or the information contained herein may be
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, elec-
tronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written prior permis-
sion from the publisher.
Although all care is taken to ensure integrity and the quality of this publication and the
information herein, no responsibility is assumed by the publishers nor the author for any
damage to the property or persons as a result of operation or use of this publication and/or
the information contained herein.
Published by: CRC Press/Balkema
P.O. Box 11320, 2301 EH Leiden, The Netherlands
e-mail: [email protected]
www.crcpress.com – www.taylorandfrancis.com
ISBN: 978-1-138-02779-4 (Hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-68722-3 (eBook PDF)
DDRROOUUGGHHTT--FFMM..iinndddd iivv 11//1166//22001155 1111::5555::1166 AAMM
Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing – Andreu et al. (Eds)
© 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-1-138-02779-4
Table of contents
Foreword xi
Preface xiii
Organization xv
Introduction
Fostering drought research and science-policy interfacing: Achievements
of the DROUGHT-R&SPI project 3
H.A.J. Van Lanen, L.M. Tallaksen, D. Assimacopoulos, K. Stahl, W. Wolters,
J. Andreu, S.I. Seneviratne, L. De Stefano, I. Seidl, F.C. Rego,
A. Massarutto & E. Garnier
Past, present and future of droughts
Drought as a natural hazard
Characteristics and drivers of drought in Europe—a summary
of the DROUGHT-R&SPI project 15
L.M. Tallaksen, J.H. Stagge, K. Stahl, L. Gudmundsson, R. Orth, S.I. Seneviratne,
A.F. Van Loon & H.A.J. Van Lanen
European historic droughts beyond the modern instrumental records
16th–20th centuries 23
E. Garnier
A comprehensive drought climatology for Europe (1950–2013) 31
L. Gudmundsson & S.I. Seneviratne
Assessment of past and future drought impacts
Impact of drought on the inhabitants of the Cuvelai watershed: A qualitative
exploration 41
R. Lütkemeier & S. Liehr
Rainy season pattern and impacts on agriculture and water resources
in Northeastern Brazil 49
M.S. Sakamoto, A.G. Ferreira, A.C. Costa & E.S. Olivas
Modelling of last hypothesis of climate change impacts on water resources
in Sierra de las Cabras aquifer (Southern Spain) 57
P. Jiménez-Fernández & P. Jiménez-Gavilán
Drought effects on rainfed agriculture using standardized indices: A case study
in SE Spain 65
S. Contreras & J.E. Hunink
v
DDRROOUUGGHHTT--FFMM..iinndddd vv 11//1199//22001155 22::1133::3322 PPMM
Ex-post evaluation of the socio-economic impacts of drought in some areas in Europe 71
D. Musolino, A. Massarutto & A. de Carli
Analysis of Guadalquivir droughts 2004–2012 based on SEEA-W tables 79
M.M. Borrego-Marín, J.M. Perales, A. Posadillo, C. Gutiérrez-Martín & J. Berbel
Multi-scalar drought and its impact on crop yield in the Republic of Moldova 85
V. Potopová, C. Boroneant & B. Boincean
Climate change and the increase of wildfire risk in the Upper Jucar River Basin, Spain 91
M.A. Pérez-Martín, F. Vinces, P. del-Amo & A. Batán
Integration of climate time series and MODIS data as an analysis tool for forest
drought detection 97
C. Domingo, X. Pons, J. Cristóbal, M. Ninyerola & B. Wardlow
Comparing low moisture availability and relative crop yields on the pan-European
scale using the FAO water production function 105
K.J.B. Oude Lenferink, A.F. Van Loon, M.H.J. Van Huijgevoort & H.A.J. Van Lanen
Impact of meteorological drought on crop yield on pan-European scale, 1979–2009 113
L. Gunst, F.C. Rego, S. Dias, C. Bifulco, J.H. Stagge, M. Rocha & H.A.J. Van Lanen
Temperature extremes, moisture deficiency and their impacts on dryland
agriculture in Gujarat, India 119
N. Bandyopadhyay, C. Bhuiyan & A.K. Saha
Analysis of drought episode in Borno State of North-Eastern Nigeria 125
F.C. Okorie, C.E. Ezedike & A.O. Nnaji
Drought identification and characterization
Using standardized precipitation and runoff indices for the identification
of extraordinary drought events in Chile 133
B. Fernández & J. Gironás
Application of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand 139
L. Sadeghi & A.Y. Shamseldin
On the use of modelled soil moisture for drought assessment over Europe 145
C. Cammalleri, F. Micale & J. Vogt
Improving operational drought definitions—taking them to basin scale 151
M. Oertel, F.J. Meza & J. Gironás
Evaluation of drought occurrence in springs yields of the Nízke Tatry Mts. 159
D. Vrablíková & M. Fendeková
Chronology of drought termination for long records in the Thames catchment 165
S. Parry, C. Prudhomme, R. Wilby & P. Wood
Variability and patterns of drought characteristics based on SPEI
in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain between 1981 and 2010 171
Q.F. Wang, J.J. Wu, G.P. Geng, H.K. Zhou & X.Y. Mo
Identification and frequency analysis of drought events in the Blanice river
catchment (Czech Republic) 177
V. David & T. Davidova
Climate change and drought in the South of Carpathian basin and transboundary
implications 183
B. Meyer, G. Mezősi, V. Blanka & Zs. Ladanyi
vi
DDRROOUUGGHHTT--FFMM..iinndddd vvii 11//1166//22001155 1111::5555::1166 AAMM
Climate change impact on water resources and droughts of AR5 scenarios
in the Jucar River, Spain 189
M.A. Pérez-Martín, A. Batán, P. del-Amo & S. Moll
Drought indicators, monitoring and forecasting
Indicators and monitoring
Drought in South-Eastern Europe: Monitoring and management 197
G. Gregorič & A. Sušnik
The U.S. Drought Monitor: Evolution and recent achievements 201
M.D. Svoboda
Drought monitoring in a transboundary river basin in North America 207
J.A. Breña-Naranjo, A. De Jesús & A. Pedrozo-Acuña
Assessment and comparison of drought monitoring using hydrological
and meteorological indices—Case study: The ZayandehRud water
reservoir, Iran 213
Sh. Paimozd, S. Khajeh & M. Moghaddasi
The drought indicator system in the Júcar River Basin Authority 219
T. Ortega Gómez, T. Estrela Monreal & M.A. Pérez-Martín
A simple method to estimate irrigation date for soil moisture modeling
and agricultural drought monitoring in irrigated regions 225
H.K. Zhou, J.J. Wu, Q.F. Wang, X.Y. Mo, T.J. Lei, G.P. Geng & X.H. Li
A preliminary assessment of meteorological and hydrological drought indicators
for application to catchments across the UK 231
L.J. Barker, J. Hannaford, C. Svensson & M. Tanguy
An approach to monitoring drought events and food security conditions 237
F. Perez, I. Angeluccetti, W. Cámaro & A. Demarchi
Evaluation of ensemble SPI forecasts for Ceará, Northeastern Brazil 245
E.A. Canamary, D.S. Reis Jr. & E.S. Martins
Water scarcity cost as a drought indicator through hydroeconomic
modelling—application to the Jucar River Basin 251
A. Lopez-Nicolas, M. Pulido-Velazquez & Á. Sales-Esteban
Early warning systems
Improved rainfall-runoff modelling tools for low-flow forecasting: Application
to French catchments 259
C. Perrin, M.-H. Ramos, V. Andréassian, P. Nicolle, L. Crochemore &
R. Pushpalatha
Possibilities on drought forecasting in Croatia 267
L. Kalin, K. Cindrić, D. Mihajlović & B. Matjačić
IMPETUS: Improving predictions of drought for user decision-making 273
C. Prudhomme, L. Shaffrey, T. Woollings, C. Jackson, H. Fowler &
B. Anderson
Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results
of the DEWFORA project 279
M. Werner, S. Vermooten, A. Iglesias, R. Maia, J. Vogt & G. Naumann
vii
DDRROOUUGGHHTT--FFMM..iinndddd vviiii 11//1166//22001155 1111::5555::1166 AAMM
Enhancing drought Monitoring and Early Warning by linking indicators to impacts 287
J. Hannaford, M. Acreman, K. Stahl, S. Bachmair, M.D. Svoboda, C. Knutson,
N.D. Crossman, I.C. Overton & M.J. Colloff
El Niño/La Niña events as a tool for regional drought monitoring
in Southern South America 293
J.A. Rivera & O.C. Penalba
Seasonal hydrologic forecasting under drought conditions in the Upper
Jucar River Basin, Spain 301
M.A. Pérez-Martín, M.A. Escudero, P. del-Amo & S. Moll
Seasonal forecasts of hydrological drought in the Limpopo basin:
Getting the most out of a bouquet of methods 307
M. Seibert & P. Trambauer
Climate seasonal forecast and derived indexes for droughts in Ceará, Brazil 315
J.M.R. Pereira, F.C. Vasconcelos Jr., E.S. Martins, D.S. Reis Jr. & A.W.T. Noronha
Use of seasonal climate predictions in the water sector—preliminary results
from the EUPORIAS project 321
L. Pouget, T. Roldán, M. Gómez, À. Cabello, E. Rodriguez Camino,
B. Navascués, J. Voces, P. Comas, F. Pastor, M.C. García Gómez,
J.J. Gil, D. Gil & R. Galván
Drought risk and vulnerability assessment
An impact perspective on pan-European drought sensitivity 329
K. Stahl, I. Kohn, L. De Stefano, L.M. Tallaksen, F.C. Rego,
S.I. Seneviratne, J. Andreu & H.A.J. van Lanen
Drought vulnerability assessment for different hydrological conditions
based on Standardized Runoff Index and Flow Duration Curve in Lithuania 335
E. Stonevičius & G. Stankūnavičius
Exploring situations of vulnerability to drought from a sectorial perspective:
A starting point for regional assessments 341
I. González Tánago, M. Ballesteros, J. Urquijo & L. De Stefano
The dynamics of vulnerability to drought from an impact perspective 349
V. Blauhut, K. Stahl & I. Kohn
Drought vulnerability assessment and potential adaptation options
in the Aegean islands 355
P.M. Stathatou & E. Kampragou
Vulnerability to drought: Mapping underlying factors across Europe 361
M. Ballesteros, I. González Tánago, J. Urquijo & L. De Stefano
Drought preparedness and mitigation options
Drought risk and vulnerability perception
Drought and agricultural insurance in Spain 371
J.C. Cuevas García
Hydrological reliability assessment of water management solution of reservoir
storage capacity in conditions of uncertainty 377
D. Marton, M. Starý, P. Menšík & S. Paseka
viii
DDRROOUUGGHHTT--FFMM..iinndddd vviiiiii 11//1199//22001155 22::1133::3322 PPMM
Water management and governance under drought conditions
From drought planning to drought management: Administrative and follow-up tasks 385
J. Ferrer Polo & N. Mondéjar Martín
Securing drinking water supply during extreme drought— learnings
from South Australia 391
J. Frizenschaf, L. Mosley, R. Daly & S. Kotz
Regional governance assessment for drought adaptation in North-West Europe:
Case study results from the analysis with a Governance Assessment Tool
in the DROP-project 399
J. Troeltzsch, U. Stein, R. Vidaurre, H. Bressers, G. Özerol, C. Furusho &
I. La Jeunesse
Conjunctive use of surface and ground waters during drought and climate change
assumptions—Duero River Basin, Spain 407
M.A. Hernandez & A. Solera
Improving resilience to drought of the Apulian water resources
system—a hydroeconomic model 413
C. Arena, M. Cannarozzo, A. Fortunato, I. Scolaro & M.R. Mazzola
Definition of optimal drought-oriented reservoir management policies combining
stochastic programming and fuzzy logic 421
H. Macian-Sorribes & M. Pulido-Velazquez
The debate on sustainable water management: Evidence from drought
in the Jucar Basin 427
J. Albiac, A. Dinar, M. Taher Kahil & E. Esteban
Applying the WARGI DSS to optimise water supply systems under drought
conditions: Analysis of the South-Sardinia water system 433
G.M. Sechi & R. Zucca
Decision support system for drought management in a transboundary context 439
B. Richaud, O.Z. Jessen & K. Cross
Managing of the agriculture water consumption to meet the environmental flows
of the Lake Urmia during the droughts 445
M. Moghaddasi, S. Morid, M. Delavar & F. Arabpour
Development and implementation of drought policies and plans
from the local to the regional, national and international levels
Towards policy recommendations for future drought risk reduction 453
E. Kampragou, D. Assimacopoulos, L. De Stefano, J. Andreu, D. Musolino,
W. Wolters, H.A.J. van Lanen, F.C. Rego & I. Seidl
The Australian experience in managing through protracted drought 461
J.D. Connor & J.M. Kirby
Implementing the national drought policy in Mexico: Challenges and strategies
for a sound water resources management 469
F.I. Arreguin Cortés, M. López Pérez & F. Rosales Ángeles
Integrated water resources management strategy to mitigate drought impacts in Mexico 475
C.E. Torrecillas Núñez, A.C. Ravelo, A.Y. Shamseldin & T. Miguel
Drought and water scarcity in Iran: How to cope with and prepare for it? 481
M.M. Saravi, R. Shahbazi & A. Malekian
ix
DDRROOUUGGHHTT--FFMM..iinndddd iixx 11//1166//22001155 1111::5555::1166 AAMM