Drone warfare : the development of unmanned aerial conflict

290 Pages·2015·1.55 MB·English

by  Sloggett

Copyright © 2014 by Dave Sloggett First published in Great Britain by Pen & Sword Aviation in 2014
First Skyhorse Publishing edition 2015
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available on file.
Cover design by Jon Wilkinson
Print ISBN: 978-1-63220-505-6
Ebook ISBN: 978-1-63220874-3
Contents
Preface
Acknowledgements
Terminology
Abbreviations
Chapter 1 Prologue
Chapter 2 Early Days
Chapter 3 Into War
Chapter 4 Target Practice
Chapter 5 Intelligence Collection and Defence Suppression
Chapter 6 Predatory Instincts
Chapter 7 Into the Future
Chapter 8 Conclusions
Appendix A: Analysis of UMA Strikes in Pakistan
Appendix B: Analysis of UMA Strikes in the Yemen
Appendix C: Analysis of Relationship Between Armed UMA Attacks
and Strikes Against NATO Tankers in Pakistan
Bibliography
Index
Preface
Almost since the dawn of aviation, engineers and scientists have mused upon
and sometimes developed aircraft that could be controlled remotely and
therefore fly unmanned. This book charts their evolution and the enabling
technologies that made their development possible. It does this over a period of
nearly 100 years, from its early beginnings through to the period after the Second
World War when applications of such platforms quickly grew to the plethora of
modern-day military and civilian uses to which they are now routinely applied.
That history is punctuated by a series of technological developments that have
allowed unmanned aircraft to gradually emerge from the shadow of the manned
platform. The first driver for the development of unmanned aircraft came from
the military. They could see the potential, even in the early stages of the
evolution of manned air platforms. Since then, a number of operational drivers
have also emerged that have had a catalyzing effect upon the development of
unmanned aircraft. Not least among these is the development of asymmetric
warfare and counter-insurgency operations.
The initial challenges lay in finding ways to control the platform, both on the
ground and in the air. With the development of the gyroscope and greater
understanding of the dynamics of flight, solutions were found to controlling
unmanned aircraft. However, these came too late to have a meaningful impact
on the First World War.
In the interwar years the level of investment in unmanned aircraft did not
match that going into manned platforms. That is apart from in the days leading
up to the Second World War in Germany where tentative steps were being taken
that would see the emergence of the V-1 flying bomb as the first genuine military
application of unmanned aircraft. Its next genesis would have to wait until it was
possible to remotely control an unmanned aircraft, albeit with restrictions
regarding line of sight.
The mainstream media likes to characterize the contemporary guises of these
platforms by the generic term ‘drones’. The origin of this use of language is
multi-faceted. It is possible to suggest that one derivation of the term dates back
to the application of unmanned aircraft as targets for various gunnery and air-to-
air missile tests. Drones at that time were seen to be simple unarmed devices
whose flight times were short in duration. One example was the Jindivik that was
developed by the Australian Government Aircraft Factory (GAF) as a result of a
joint programme between Australia and the United Kingdom. Its name derives
from the Aboriginal word meaning ‘the hunted one’.
The next stage in the evolution of unmanned aircraft occurred when advances
in technology allowed them to start to carry sensor systems in addition to the
basic payload required to control the platform. Pioneering work in Israel was
quickly picked up by the United States. This initial work has seen a plethora of
platforms built to provide eyes and ears on an adversary’s actions, both in the
land and maritime environments. As technological developments occurred, so
the larger of the platforms could also begin to carry weapon systems. The kind of
asymmetric conflicts occurring in Iraq and Afghanistan helped create drivers for
yet more technological advances in the capabilities of unmanned aircraft.
Mission endurance in particular was a huge issue.
The longer an unmanned aircraft could stay on station, the more it could help
to build up intelligence on the pattern of life in an area. As the need for the
military to apply precise effects on the ground increased, so grew the need to
maintain a platform on station. With many people’s behaviour linked to diurnal
cycles it was natural that platforms should be developed that are capable of
remaining on station over a 24-hour period. Developments in satellite
communications technology have also provided a crucial enabler allowing
missions conducted by unmanned aircraft to be extended.
At the time of writing, unmanned aircraft are still controlled remotely by
human beings but they are reliant on satellite communications to maintain the
control. If the satellite links become degraded for a period of time, the unmanned
aircraft has to have a limited decision-making capability. If, for example, satellite
communications are lost, the unmanned aircraft will initiate a return to its home
base. With an increasing geographic spread of operations comes an increased
need to operate under a range of climatic conditions. Just because a Reaper on a
mission over Pakistan decides that it has lost satellite communications and
should therefore return to its main operating base does not necessarily mean the
conditions there are suitable for a landing. This provides evidence that we are
some way from being able to think of drones as fully autonomous devices.
Some contemporary media writers like to use the term ‘drone’ because it
carries with it a sense of the rampant application of technology. They seek to
portray these platforms as a form of Frankensteinian monster created by mad
people who will one day rue its invention. This image is one that anticipates the
next stage in the development of unmanned aircraft, when the link with human
control is either partially or completely severed. Citing the degree of autonomy
already available to platforms such as the Predator and Reaper, in the case of
them suffering some form of mission failure the naysayers argue that this is the
thin edge of the wedge and that fully autonomous robotic unmanned aircraft are
just around the corner.
The use of the term ‘drone’ is subtle and implicitly derogatory. It evokes
images of the classical genre of science-fiction movies that have tried to show the
inevitable conclusions when man hands over control to robots. Of all these
caricatures, the sentient computer – HAL 9000 – in Stanley Kubrick’s famous
film 2001: A Space Odyssey is perhaps the most alarming. In the film HAL has
been programmed to achieve a mission. When the crew of the spaceship appears
to threaten that objective, the computer takes what it believes to be the logical
step of removing them from the picture.
For those seeking to add a negative hue to the portrayal of unmanned aircraft
this provides the perfect illustration of what is essentially a moralizing message.
If man leaves decision-making to robots (whatever that actually means), the
outcome will be bad. However, not all Hollywood depictions of robots have been
alarmist. For example, in Star Wars two of the main characters have comedic
qualities.
In the end, according to this narrative, what you get is a fully-functioning
form of exterminator that operates entirely autonomously, irrespective of the
implications for mankind. A world fully or partially dominated by robots is a
theme to which Hollywood has returned on a number of occasions and the
language accompanying this portrayal of drones is almost entirely negative.
Others in the media use it to portray a quite different viewpoint, citing the role
of the drone bees in a hive going about their business without a great deal of
thought. The implication is that the drones are servile and verging on automata.
In fact, this is a weak metaphor. Any experienced beekeeper will tell you that the
complexities of the operations of the hive are far more dynamic than some might
believe. If the queen bee is a feisty character, the drones will pick up her mood.
This can create quite distinct behaviours in hives located within a few metres of
each other. To date, no unmanned aircraft has developed the capability of