DOT/FAA/AR-xx/xx Obsolescence and Life Cycle Management

206 Pages·2013·1.86 MB·English

by  Chris Wilkinson, Honeywell

NOT FAA POLICY OR GUIDANCE
LIMITED RELEASE DOCUMENT
24 SEPTEMBER 2013

DOT/FAA/AR-xx/xx Obsolescence and Life

Federal Aviation Administration Cycle Management
William J. Hughes Technical Center
Aviation Research Division
for Avionics
Atlantic City International Airport
New Jersey 08405

DISCLAIMER
This draft document is being made available as a “Limited
Release” document by the FAA Software and Digital
Systems (SDS) Program and does not constitute FAA
policy or guidance. This document is being distributed by
permission by the Contracting Officer’s Representative
(COR). The research information in this document
represents only the viewpoint of its subject matter expert
authors.

The FAA is concerned that its research is not released to
the public before full editorial review is completed.
However, a Limited Release distribution does allow
exchange of research knowledge in a way that will benefit
the parties receiving the documentation and, at the same
time, not damage perceptions about the quality of FAA
research.

NOT FA A POLICY OR GUIDANCE

LIMITED RELEASE DOCUMENT

24 SEPTEMBER 2013
NOTICE

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S.
Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange.
The United States Government assumes no liability for the contents or
use thereof. The United States Government does not endorse products or
manufacturers. Trade or manufacturer's names appear herein solely
because they are considered essential to the objective of this report. This
document does not constitute FAA certification policy. Consult your local
FAA aircraft certification office as to its use.
Technical Report Documentation Page
1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No.

DOT/FAA/AR-xx/xx

4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date

Obsolescence and Life Cycle Management for Avionics September 2013
6. Performing Organization Code

7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No.

Chris Wilkinson

9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)

Honeywell Aerospace
7000 Columbia Gateway Drive
Columbia, MD 21046
11. Contract or Grant No.

DTFACT-11-C-00006
12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered

Federal Aviation Authority
Final
FAA William J Hughes Technical Center
August 2011 to November 2013
Atlantic City International Airport, NJ 08405

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

15. Supplementary Notes

The Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center Aviation Research Division COR was Charles Kilgore.
16. Abstract

This research identifies ways to identify and mitigate obsolescence risks in avionics and to provide related aviation safety input to
the FAA for the development of regulations, policy, guidance and training. Obsolescence and obsolescence management of
avionics products is a technically challenging and costly financial problem with many adverse business impacts for both the
avionics suppliers and their customers. Obsolescence is not unique to the aerospace industry but has special problems because of
the typically long life cycle of aircraft and a requirement to comply with airworthiness regulations that makes continuous change
complex and costly. Obsolescence is the inevitable consequence of the dependence of aerospace on a supply base whose major
markets are outside of aerospace and whose technology lifecycles are much shorter than those other markets. Aerospace has a
continual demand for technological progress in aircraft system capabilities and safety improvements, but on a much longer
timescale than the technology turnover timescale of the supply base. Obsolescence is and always will be an inevitable occurrence
and therefore the goal of obsolescence and lifecycle management is to minimize the recurring cost impacts and the disruption of
supply to customers whilst maintaining continued airworthiness and regulatory compliance.

This report describes the current state of obsolescence management in the aerospace industry, the processes, standards and tools
now being used and the underlying causes. The report addresses the identification, mitigation and avoidance of issues related to
obsolescence in systems, software, and airborne electronic hardware development, the related design assurance and certification
considerations and optimal methods for life cycle maintenance and technical refreshment. The report identifies known and
emerging obstacles, problems, issues and gaps in existing standards and guidance, proposes standards and assurance techniques
that may minimize the impact of obsolescence, and suggests how manufacturers can pro-actively plan and manage the life cycle of
their products. The report describes the extant research on numerical methods for obsolescence risk assessment and related
economic modeling and provides recommendations on further public guidance and standards that would assist industry and users
in adapting to a dynamic environment. The report suggests some industry and regulatory practices that could promote best
practice, reduce costs and inconvenience, and improve the product lifecycle planning process. Finally the report suggests some
relevant research topics that are not well addressed presently and should be considered for future work.

The report suggests that the obsolescence problem cannot be solved only by engineering methods, but also requires pro-active
measures and risk-awareness planning by both customers and suppliers. Obsolescence is complex mix of engineering, economic
and business issues with many associated uncertainties. These uncertainties arise from the supply base and customer base, which
requires marketing, engineering and economic planning and analysis using numerical risk assessment methods that measure
uncertainty.

17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement

Airborne electronic hardware, obsolescence, life cycle management, This document is available to the U.S. public through the
life cycle plan, avionics sustainment, COTS, intellectual property, National Technical Information Service (NTIS), Springfield,
continued airworthiness Virginia 22161.

19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price
Unclassified Unclassified 206
Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author thanks the following individuals for their thoughtful suggestions and comments.

Barbara Lingberg (FAA)
Chuck Kilgore (FAA)
Robin Sova (FAA)
Gary Horan (FAA)
Bob Manners (Lumark Technologies, Inc., Contractor for the FAA)
Bill Haselrick (Honeywell)

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................. I
TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ II
LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... IV
LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................ IV
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................... V
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......................................................................................................... VIII
1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................... 1
2. LITERATURE SEARCH ................................................................................................... 3
3. CURRENT INDUSTRY PRACTICE ................................................................................ 4
3.1. Responses to Obsolescence 8
3.2. Obsolescence in the General Aviation Industry 9
3.3. Military Obsolescence 10
3.4. The Causes of Obsolescence 11
3.5. Obsolescence of Systems 12
3.5.1. Legislation Induced Obsolescence 13
3.5.2. Regulation and Mandate Induced Obsolescence 14
3.5.2.1. Avionics 15
3.5.2.2. Engine Equipment 16
3.6. Obsolescence of System Software 16
3.7. Obsolescence of Hardware Components 17
3.8. Obsolescence of Tools and Platforms 18
3.9. Obsolescence of Manufacturing and Repair Facilities 19
3.10. Obsolescence Management Tools and Resources 19
3.10.1. Component Obsolescence Information Services 20
3.10.2. Obsolete Component Sources 22
3.10.3. Standards, Guides and Other Documents 23
4. KNOWN AND EMERGING ISSUES ............................................................................. 24
4.1. Components Obsolescence Forecasting 24
4.1.1. Predictions Uncertainty 24
4.2. Last Time Buy Estimation and Inventory Management 25
4.3. Optimum Resolution Method Selection 26
4.4. Performance Based Logistics Risk Assessment 27
4.5. Design Patterns 27
4.6. Customer Notification Period of System EOL and Continued Support 28
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4.7. Maintaining Software and HDL Tools and Platforms 28
4.8. Maintaining Manufacturing and Repair Capability 28
4.9. Compliance Auditing 28
4.10. PCN Processing 29
4.11. Security 29
5. EXISTING R&D ............................................................................................................... 30
5.1. Economic and Life Cycle Modeling 30
5.1.1. Estimating Life Time Buy Quantity 31
5.1.2. Life Cycle Cost Estimation 31
5.1.3. Selection and Timing of Resolution Options 32
5.2. Component Obsolescence Forecasting 33
5.2.1. Demand Side Methods 33
5.2.2. Supply Side Methods 34
5.3. Design Methods for Obsolescence and Mitigation 34
5.3.1. Mitigating Software Obsolescence 35
6. STANDARDS AND ASSURANCE ................................................................................ 36
6.1. Product Sunset Notification 36
6.2. Modifications and Continued Airworthiness 37
6.3. Rulemaking Procedures 38
7. HIGH VALUE APPROACHES ....................................................................................... 39
8. SHARED ISSUES ............................................................................................................ 42
8.1. Electronic Component Market Segments 44
8.2. Electronic Device Organizations 46
9. USING COTS IP ............................................................................................................... 48
9.1. Definition of COTS IP 49
9.2. Similarities Between COTS IP Assurance and Assurance of COTS Electronic
Components 50
9.3. COTS IP Usage 51
9.3.1. A Suggested Approach to COTS IP Assurance 53
9.3.2. Representative Mapping of RTCA/DO-254 Data Items and Supplier Documents 56
9.4. Additional Considerations 58
9.4.1. Advanced Methods 58
9.4.1.1. Run-Time Methods 59
9.4.1.2. Model-Based Verification 59
9.4.1.3. Functional Failure Path Analysis 59
9.4.1.4. COTS IP Research Questions 60
10. FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................ 61
11. FUTURE WORK .............................................................................................................. 62
12. RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................. 64
iii
13. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 66
APPENDIX A - OBSOLESCENCE CAPABILITY SELF-ASSESSMENT ............................... 76
APPENDIX B - GENERIC PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE PLAN .................................................... 78
APPENDIX C - LITERATURE SEARCH RESULTS ................................................................ 84

LIST OF FIGURES
Page
Figure 1 – Capability Maturity Levels 7
Figure 2 – Honeywell Obsolescence Management Process 8
Figure 3 – Obsolescence Fishbone Diagram 12
Figure 4 – Life Cycle Curve 18
Figure 5 – FreeScale Life Cycle Coding Scheme [43] 21
Figure 6 – The Flow of Components between Electronic Device Organizations 43
Figure 7 – Global Semiconductor Market Share, 2011 (Military includes aerospace) [127] 45
Figure 8 - Process Map 55

LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table 1 – High Value Approaches 40
Table 2 – Global Market Forecast for Semiconductors ($Billions) [127] 45
Table 3 – Electronic Device Organizations Primary Concerns 46
Table 4 – DO-254 [41] Appendix A Objectives/Supplier Evidence 56
Table 5 – Configuration Management Hardware Control Categories (DO-254 Table 7-1 [41]) 58
Table 6 – Additional DO-254 Objectives [41] 58
Table 7 – Possibilities for Combined Research Topics 62
iv
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AEH Airborne Electronic Hardware
AIRE Atlantic Interoperability Initiative to Reduce Emissions
AMPL Approved Manufacturers and Parts List
ANSP Air Navigation Service Provider
AOG Aircraft on Ground
APU Auxiliary Power Unit
AQEC Aerospace Qualified Electronic Components
ARMS Advanced Reconfigurable Manufacturing for Semiconductors
ASIC Application Specific Integrated Circuit
ATM Air Traffic Management
B2B Business to Business (e.g., for electronic data interchange)
BB Bridge Buy
BFE Buyer Furnished Equipment
BGA Ball Grid Array (e.g., for an electronic component package)
BOM Bill of Materials
BSI British Standards Institute
CAST Certification Authorities Software Team
CCA Circuit Card Assembly
CFR Code of Federal Regulations in the United States
CIA Change Impact Analysis
CM Configuration Management
CMM Capability Maturity Model
COTS Commercial off the Shelf
COTS IP Commercial off the Shelf Intellectual Property (i.e., Software HDL defining the
function of a programmable logic device)
CPDLC Controller-Pilot Data Link Communication
DAH Design Approval Holder
DAL Design Assurance Level
DoD Department of Defense (U.S.)
DLA Defense Logistics Agency (U.S.)
DLS Data Link Services
DMEA Defense Micro-Electronics Activity (U.S.)
DMSMS Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages
EASA European Aviation Safety Authority
ECMP Electronic Components Management Plan
ECS Environmental Control System
EHCOE Electronic Hardware Center of Excellence
EIA Electronic Industries Association
EOL End of Life
EOS End of Support
E.U. European Union
EUIR European Upper Flight Information Region
FAA Federal Aviation Authority
v
FFPA Functional Failure Path Analysis
FPGA Field Programmable Gate Array
GA General Aviation
GIDEP Government-Industry Data Exchange Program
HAL Hardware Abstraction Layer
HCx Hardware Control (e.g., for a Configuration Management Category)
HDL Hardware Description Language, e.g. VHDL, Verilog
HLR High Level Requirements
HMI Hazardously Misleading Information
ICA Instructions for Continued Airworthiness
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
IEC International ElectroTechnical Commission
IECQ International ElectroTechnical Commission Quality (e.g., for an Assessment
System For Electronic Components)
IFR Instrument Flight Rules
IHS Information Handling Services (a commercial component information provider)
IP Intellectual Property implemented in HDL
ITRS International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors
LCC Life Cycle Cost
LOTE Life of Type Evaluation
LLR Low Level Requirements
LRU Line Replaceable Unit
LSD Last Ship Date
LTB Last Time Buy or Life Time Buy
MAB Multi-Arm Bandit
MOCA Mitigation of Obsolescence Cost Analysis
MRI Material Risk Index
MRO Maintenance and Repair Organization
MSL Moisture Sensitivity Level (of integrated circuits) or Mean Sea Level
NAS National Airspace System
NextGen Next Generation Air Transportation System (U.S.)
NPRM Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
NRE Non-Recurring Engineering (Cost)
OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer
PBL Performance Based Logistics
PCN Process or Product Change Notice
PD Programmable Device
PLD Programmable Logic Device (an electronic component whose function is
defined by software HDL)
QA Quality Assurance
QML Qualified Manufacturer List (for military grade components)
RNAV Area Navigation (originally random navigation)
RoHS Restriction of (the Use of Certain) Hazardous Substances (in Electrical and
Electronic Equipment)
RTCA, Inc. Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (former name)
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