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Distortions to Agricultural Incentives Project - University of Adelaide PDF

33 Pages·2013·1.98 MB·English
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Preview Distortions to Agricultural Incentives Project - University of Adelaide

Distortions to Agricultural Incentives Project lead by Kym Anderson Signe Nelgen University of Adelaide Workshop on Meeting Food Security Goals with Good Policy, Medan, Indonesia, 26-27 June 2013 Outline Purpose of the DAI project Output and Indicators Key findings of the studies Lessons for future effort to monitor and evaluate policies that affect agricultural and food markets Premises behind DAI project Agricultural and food markets in DCs majority of world’s poor Welfare affected by: own-country policies rest of world’s policies Hence need global coverage of price distortions Global poverty and food insecurity could be reduced through policy reforms Some of the key questions To what extent do govts. insulate domestic food markets from int’l price fluctuations? What are the effects of interventions at different stages of the value chain on food security Are there differences between: HICs and DCs? Rising or falling int’l price? Food-surplus and food-deficit countries? Food staples and non-staple farm products? WB price indexes, 1990-2013 300 Agricultural Price Index Food Price Index 250 Grain Price Index 200 150 100 50 0 Farmer’s share in fob prices in Ethiopia 0.90 Coffee 0.80 Oilseeds s ) Pulses ee 0.70 cc irpirP b B 0.60 oO f F n/ ie ec 0.50 rir ap h se ’ta 0.40 sg r em- m rra 0.30 aF F( 0.20 0.10 0.00 Source: Authors’ estimates based on NRA estimates from Anderson and Nelgen (2012). Outputs of World Bank’s DAI project Global database (by country plus regional and global aggregates) Analytical histories of price distortions 4 regional & 1 global volume plus >100 more-detailed Working Papers Analyses of causes and effects: Anderson, K. (ed.), The Political Economy of Agricultural Price Distortions, Cambridge University Press. Anderson, K., J. Cockburn and W. Martin (eds.), Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty, World Bank. Country coverage for Asia 12 Asian countries included in the study Bangladesh China India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Taiwan of a total of 82 countries Thailand Vietnam More than half a century of data: 1955-2011 75 agricultural commodities updated to 2010/2011, based again on OECD’s PSEs average 11 per country and plus, for other DCs, 70% of value of production domestic & border price indexes Estimates of nominal rates of assistance (NRAs), and consumer tax equivalents (CTEs) Country information: Crop area Production and Consumption in tonnes or nb of livestock Price variables • Farm-gate selling price • Wholesale price • Primary • At different stage of processed product • Mark-ups • Cif import price • Fob export price • International reference price • Exchange rates Trade variables (Trade status, Imports, Exports) Stock changes, inputs use of product Other variables: Fertilizer, Pesticides, Credits, Fuel, Electricity, Water, Employment

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Purpose of the DAI project Premises behind DAI project -ga te pric e. /FO. B P ric e. ) Coffee. Oilseeds. Pulses. Source: Authors' estimates based on . 7500. 8000. 8500. 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976
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