Dispersion Modeling and Pollen Forecast @ MeteoSwiss

87 Pages·2009·10.8 MB·English

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDI
Bundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
Dispersion Modeling
and Pollen Forecast
@ MeteoSwiss
Mathias Rotach, Head BU
ARPA- SIMC, 25. 5. 2009
Bio- and Environmental Meteorology
• One Section out of nine @ MeteoSwiss
• In the Climate Division
• 9 FTEs and 14 people
(cid:1)
Phenology
(cid:1)
Pollen
(cid:1)
Agrometeorology
(cid:1)
Human- Biometeorology
Dispersion modelingand pollen forecastat MeteoSwiss 2
[email protected]
National Pollen Observation Network
• 14 sites
• Mainly lowland
• Daily counts /weekly
analysis
• Burkhard traps
• Hand analysis
• Automatisation?
Dispersion modelingand pollen forecastat MeteoSwiss 3
[email protected]
National Pollen Observation Network
• Pollen forecast
(cid:1)
internet
(cid:1)
newspapers
(cid:1)
special customers
(cid:1)
SMS
Dispersion modelingand pollen forecastat MeteoSwiss 4
[email protected]
Internet dissemination
http://www.pollenundallergie.ch
Dispersion modelingand pollen forecastat MeteoSwiss 5
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Pollen modeling
Dispersion modelingand pollen forecastat MeteoSwiss 6
[email protected]
Concept of the model system
Subsystem Subsystem Subsystem
„pollen season“ „emission“ „transport“
modeling the
start of the
meteorological
pollen season
parameters
transport
cumulative pollen emission actual actual
model
daily season model emission pollen load
(COSMO-ART)
temperature
distribution of meteorological
modeling the
the species parameters
end of the
for transport
pollen season
(COSMO)
Legend
Dispersion modelingand pollen forecastgatr MeeetenoS: wimissplemented 7
[email protected]
Input / Output a model yellow: partially implemented
red: planned
Parameters for GDD model
Dispersion modelingand pollen forecastat MeteoSwiss 8
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Regionalised temperature sums: start
of season
N
T = 18‘313
T = 18‘850
T = 17‘895
T = 24‘212 E
W
T = 18‘222
T = 23‘594
T = 22‘450
T = 16‘951
T = 24‘011
T = 24‘292
T = 20‘189
T = 21‘595
S © MeteoSchweiz
Dispersion modelingand pollen forecastat MeteoSwiss 9
[email protected] Quelle der Karte:
www.polleninfo.org
Regionalised temperature sums: end
of season
N
T = 47877
T = 41284
T = 42187
T = 53302
T = 42239
T = 45782
T = 47850
T = 46163
T = 59338
T = 62910
S
T = 41641
T = 58273
© MeteoSchweiz
Dispersion modelingand pollen forecastat MeteoSwiss 10
[email protected] Quelle der Karte:
www.polleninfo.org