Development and Crisis of the Welfare State: Parties and Policies in Global Markets

432 Pages·2001·1.748 MB·English

by  Evelyne Huber, John D. Stephens

Development and Crisis of the Welfare State
(cid:2)
(cid:2)
Development
and Crisis of the
Welfare State
(cid:2)
Parties and Policies in Global Markets
Evelyne Huber and
John D. Stephens
the universit y of chicago press
chicago and london
Evelyne Huberis the Morehead Alumni Distinguished Professor of Political Science
and John D. Stephensis the Gerhard E. Lenski, Jr. Distinguished Professor of Political
Science and Sociology at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. They are authors
of Capitalist Development and Democracy(1992, with Dietrich Rueschemeyer), also
published by the University of Chicago Press.
The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637
The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London
© 2001 by The University of Chicago
All rights reserved. Published 2001
Printed in the United States of America
10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 1 2 3 4 5
ISBN: 0-226-35646-9 (cloth)
ISBN: 0-226-35647-7 (paper)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Huber, Evelyne.
Development and crisis of the welfare state : parties and policies in
global markets / Evelyne Huber and John D. Stephens.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-226-35646-9 (cloth : alk. paper)—ISBN 0-226-35647-7 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Welfare state—Cross-cultural studies. 2. Political parties—Cross-cultural studies.
3. International economic relations. I. Stephens, John D., Ph.D. II. Title.
JC479 .H83 2001
361.6(cid:2)5—dc21
00-012178
(cid:2)(cid:3) The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American
National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library
Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1992.
In memory of Merlin G. Pope, Jr.

CONTENTS
(cid:2)
List of Tables ix
Preface xi
1 Introduction 1
Outline of the Argument
3
Methodological Contributions
8
Theoretical Contributions
9
2 Theoretical Framework and Methodological Approach 14
Theoretical Framework
14
Methodological Approach
32
3 The Development of Welfare States: Quantitative Evidence 39
Hypotheses
40
Operationalizations
50
Analytic Techniques
62
Results
66
Conclusion
79
4 Welfare State and Production Regimes 85
Welfare State and Production Regimes
86
The Performance of Regimes
105
Conclusion
110
5 The Development of Welfare States and Production Regimes
in the Golden Age: A Comparative Historical Analysis 113
Paths to the Nordic Welfare State
115
The Christian Democratic Welfare States of
Northern Europe
144
The Antipodean Wage Earner Welfare States
169
Comparative Analysis
181
vii
viii Contents
6 Welfare State Retrenchment: Quantitative Evidence 202
Data and Methods
203
Results
206
Conclusion
219
7 The Politics of Welfare States after the Golden Age:
A Comparative Historical Analysis 222
Changes in the International Economy and
Domestic Social Structures and Their Effects
223
The Nordic Social Democratic Welfare States
241
The Northern Continental Christian Democratic
Welfare States
265
The Antipodes
286
The Impact of Retrenchment
299
Conclusion
300
8 Conclusion 312
Summary of Arguments
312
Speculation and Prescription
323
Contributions to Theories of the Welfare State
331
Contributions to Theories of the State
337
Appendix 347
Notes 369
References 385
Index 409
TABLES
(cid:2)
3.1 Variables 52
3.2 Regressions on social security benefits 68
3.3 Regressions on government revenue, expenditure,
and transfers 72
3.4 Regressions on civilian nontransfer spending and
public employment 75
3.5 Regressions on public share of health expenditure and
pension generosity 76
3.6 Cross-sectional data circa 1980 80
4.1 Welfare state regimes circa 1980 88
4.2 Production regimes: Labor market indicators circa 1980 96
4.3 Production regimes: Institutional configurations and
macro policy indicators 102
4.4 Welfare state outcomes 109
5.1 Investment, profits, and reinvestment ratios 129
5.2 Labor force participation by gender 136
6.1 Determinant of changes in welfare effort by period
(current cabinet share) 214
6.2 Determinant of changes in welfare effort by period
(cumulative cabinet share) 216
6.3 Determinant of changes in unemployment replacement
rates by period 218
7.1 Selected indicators of economic openness 228
7.2 Real long-term interest rates 231
7.3 Ratios of active to dependent populations 238
A.1 Total government revenue (percentage GDP) 348
A.2 Total government expenditure (percentage GDP) 350
A.3 Social security transfer expenditure (percentage GDP) 352
A.4 Social security benefit expenditure (ILO)
(percentage GDP) 354
ix