Table Of Content

Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications Anastasia Filippidou E ditor Deterrence Concepts and Approaches for Current and Emerging Threats Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications Series editor Anthony J. Masys, Associate Professor, Director of Global Disaster Management, Humanitarian Assistance and Homeland Security, University of South Florida, Tampa, USA Advisory Editor Gisela Bichler, California State University, San Bernardino, CA, USA Thirimachos Bourlai, West Virginia University, Statler College of Engineering and Mineral Resources, Morgantown, WV, USA Chris Johnson, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK Panagiotis Karampelas, Hellenic Air Force Academy, Attica, Greece Christian Leuprecht, Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, ON, Canada Edward C. Morse, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA David Skillicorn, Queen's University, Kingston, ON, Canada Yoshiki Yamagata, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan The series Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications comprises interdisciplinary research covering the theory, foundations and domain-specific topics pertaining to security. Publications within the series are peer-reviewed monographs and edited works in the areas of: – biological and chemical threat recognition and detection (e.g., biosensors, aerosols, forensics) – crisis and disaster management – terrorism – cyber security and secure information systems (e.g., encryption, optical and photonic systems) – traditional and non-traditional security – energy, food and resource security – economic security and securitization (including associated infrastructures) – transnational crime – human security and health security – social, political and psychological aspects of security – recognition and identification (e.g., optical imaging, biometrics, authentication and verification) – smart surveillance systems – applications of theoretical frameworks and methodologies (e.g., grounded theory, complexity, network sciences, modelling and simulation) Together, the high-quality contributions to this series provide a cross-disciplinary overview of forefront research endeavours aiming to make the world a safer place. The editors encourage prospective authors to correspond with them in advance of submitting a manuscript. Submission of manuscripts should be made to the Editor- in-Chief or one of the Editors More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/5540 Anastasia Filippidou Editor Deterrence Concepts and Approaches for Current and Emerging Threats Editor Anastasia Filippidou Oxfordshire, UK ISSN 1613-5113 ISSN 2363-9466 (electronic) Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications ISBN 978-3-030-29366-6 ISBN 978-3-030-29367-3 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29367-3 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Introduction Deterrence plays an important role in justifying, influencing, and shaping strategic thinking and practices, significantly affecting contemporary political rhetoric. Consequently, deterrence has become an important way of addressing current and emerging challenges. Through the examination of different themes and case studies, this book aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the concept of deterrence and its utility in dealing effectively with threats. Although the broader concept of deterrence can be placed in antiquity, in modern times and in its traditional form, deterrence is seen predominantly as the product of the Cold War, which transformed ‘narrow’ deterrence approaches into widespread orthodoxy. Increasingly, however, emerging threats and challenges called into question the traditional concept of deterrence. There are many elements that challenge the concept of deterrence and its effectiveness. For instance, it is not just that the concept can be ambiguous and broad, but also there have to be a number of conditions for deterrence to be implemented, and to stand a chance of success. Deterrence, for example, is contextual and situational, and it is not just located in human behaviour, because if this were the case, the expectation then would be to witness the same patterns of behaviour among different countries. The very fact that the English word for ‘deterrence’ cannot be easily translated into other languages suggests that deterrence is not the outcome of a neutral language, but the result of a social process (Lupovici 2010: 717–718). In reality, and as the case studies in this book demonstrate, the variation of effectiveness of deterrence in different countries implies that a number of factors play a role in shaping the deterring and deterred behaviour. Highlighting further the complex nature of deterrence, not only do culture and identity influence and shape deterring policies, but also vice versa deterring measures can influence the culture and identity of the actors who adopt them (Stein 2000: 21–22). For these reasons, deterrence is dependent upon ongoing processes, and thus has to be adjustable and adaptable. Another indication of the ambiguity of the concept of deterrence, for example, is that deterrence policies can act as a delaying mechanism in dealing effectively with an opponent, in which case the aim would be to contain a conflict and the focus is zero-sum, and more short term. On the other hand, deterrence can have the role of a proactive mechanism in dealing with a conflict, where the focus is longer term. v vi Introduction Further complexity is introduced by the fact that deterrence entails both overt and covert measures. Overt actions, such as new legislation and reclassification of cer- tain actions, can act as a deterrent, but may also leave a democratic state open to criticism. On the other hand, covert actions may be more effective deterrents; however, the exposure of such actions can strike a blow on the credibility of a state. Revelations, for instance, about extraordinary renditions and enhanced interroga- tion techniques, or revelations about state infiltration of social and environmental movements in Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, highlight the very high political cost associated when such acts are publicised. Although deterrence appears to entail a zero-sum game situation, this need not be the case, as the need for fine balances requires a more nuanced and holistic approach. For deterrence to be able to effectively deal with the current complexities and be an effective enabler in resolving a conflict, the balance has to shift from zero-s um, positive-negative endpoint to a more balanced positive-sum, win-win outcome. The book highlights that for a state to be able to transition from zero-sum to a positive- sum, the deterring party would have to be aware of context-specific variables such as the non-state actors’ values system, the mindset, and decision-making processes. Through the examination of different perspectives of deterrence, the book aims to examine the inherent complexities associated with the development and applica- tion of the concept of deterrence and therefore to provide a unique insight on the concept and test its validity today. Through an analysis of historical and contemporary case studies, the contributors to this book provide an appreciation of the mul- tiple variables and conditions that are incorporated in decision making in order to create effective deterrence policies and measures. Deterrence was originally envisaged as a foreign policy instrument reflecting a state’s influence. Over the years, the concept has had to adjust to new threats and realities while building on past foundational principles. The academic study of the concept of deterrence has gained momentum in recent years. Driven by US, UK, and NATO security and defence policies that have declared deterrence to be a criti- cal strategic aim, scholarly analysis has engaged with these policy commitments, critiquing various types of deterrence as well as the process of deterrence itself (Breitenbauch 2014; Joint Doctrine Note 2019; Fitzgerald 2016). This collection contributes to this growing field of study in a relatively understudied area of inter- rogating the concept of deterrence itself through a multi-disciplinary approach. The research assembled in this book focuses on deterring extremism, conflict resolution, investigating technological developments, effects of globalisation, the relationship of resilience to effective deterrence, and the associated complexity of contemporary interdependencies to create a contextualised concept of modern deterrence (Mueller 2018). Social science and historical methodologies are utilised to gain a comprehen- sive cross section of analysis that will reveal the strengths and weaknesses of the use of deterrence as a national security strategy, as well as highlighting the various types of power available for use by the state to create multi-faceted deterrence in order to deal effectively and efficiently with complex emerging challenges. The approach adopted in this book allows us to trace how the adherence to deterrence has evolved and become a significant mechanism and tool influencing policy formation. Introduction vii The book evaluates the concept of deterrence and its evolution over the years and discusses whether and how deterrence is still relevant and applicable today. The book considers questions such as: How can a state deter but not alienate? In what way can the traditional concept of deterrence be expanded and adapted to deal with current complex realities? How can engagement with non-state actors be best conceived and brought into policy? Is the use of advanced technology a false deterrence? What are the implications for states that use advanced technology, and for those wishing to enter the market? The complexity of the subject of deterrence is aptly reflected in the variety of topics and case studies covered in this book, which is based on relevant themes. The book opens with a chapter on the concepts and approaches to deterrence, which sets the background and forms the thread of the book. Although there are a variety of case studies, this underlying thread of deterrence binds the chapters together. Classic theories of deterrence and the concept of resilience are not usually linked, but the chapter on resilience in this book examines what differentiates and links the two concepts, and argues that the two concepts offer complementary perspectives in envisioning an option for dealing with security threats. Another theme of the book is conventional deterrence, examining the need for understanding the functioning of nuclear and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) deterrence in the contemporary international environment and how emerging threats and challenges are calling the traditional understanding of nuclear deterrence into question. The focus goes beyond the technological aspects of WMD, and it also focuses on the stigmatisation and the image of these weapons with mass destruction and long-term harm. The next theme of the book is asymmetric situations and deterrence, including non-state actors, violent extremism, social movements, and technological advances that enhance asymmetry. The book concludes with a social theme of immigration and economics. The chapters examine the efficiency and effectiveness of deterrence, and they aim to reveal and analyse the merits and demerits of the concept of deterrence. The breadth of the case studies provides methodological advantages, and is instrumental for the pluralistic approach this book advances. Cranfield University Anastasia Filippidou Cranfield, UK References Breitenbauch HØ (2014) NATO: conventional deterrence is the new black. War on the rocks, April 14, 2014. https://warontherocks.com/2014/04/nato-conventional-deterrence-is-the-new-black/. Accessed 25 June 2019 Fitzgerald D (2016) Re-evaluating military strategy: the effectiveness of conventional deterrence, clocks and clouds. J Natl Glob Aff 7(1):1–15 Joint Doctrine Note 1/19: Deterrence: the Defence Contribution, UK MOD, February 7, 2019, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/ file/783104/20190204-doctrine_uk_deterrence_jdn_1_19.pdf. Accessed 25 June 2019 viii Introduction Mueller KP (2018) Conventional deterrence redux: avoiding great power conflict in the 21st cen- tury. Strateg Stud Q 2018 (Winter):76–93 Lupovici A (2010) The emerging fourth wave of deterrence theory: toward a new research agenda. Int Stud Q 54(3):705–732 Stein JG (2000) The privatisation of security in the global political space. Int Stud Rev 2(1):21–24 Contents Deterrence: Concepts and Approaches for Current and Emerging Threats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Anastasia Filippidou Resilience and Deterrence: Exploring Correspondence Between the Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Edith Wilkinson Deterrence and Diplomacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Afzal Ashraf Nuclear Deterrence in a New Age of Disruptive Technologies and Great Power Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Reuben Steff What’s in a Name? Deterrence and the Stigmatisation of WMD . . . . . . . . 77 Patricia Shamai Deterring Violent Extremism and Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Anastasia Filippidou Deterrence and Drones: Are Militaries Becoming Addicted and What Is the Prognosis? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 Ben Tripp Deterrence and Third Party Amplification: The Case of Hezbollah and Al Manar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Kirby Wedekind ‘The Outrage Was Really Quite Visceral’1: Overt and Covert Deterrence Effects on Social Movement Activism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Thomas O’Brien ix