Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change

648 Pages·2001·19.743 MB·English

by  Hans Alexandersson (auth.), Dr. Manola Brunet India, Dr. Diego López Bonillo (eds.)

Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
Manola Brunet India • Diego L6pez Bonillo
(Eds.)
Detecting
and Modelling
Regional Climate Change
With 257 Figures
Springer
EDITORS:
Dr. Manola Brunet India
Dr. Diego L6pez Bonillo
University Rovira i Virgili
Department of History & Geography
Climate Change Research Group
Physical Geography
Pza. Tarraco, n 1
43071 Tarragona
Spain
ISBN 978-3-642-07594-0 ISBN 978-3-662-04313-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Detecting and modelling regional dimate change! M. Brunet and D. L6pez, eds.
p. cm. Includes bibliographieal references and index.
1. C!imatic changes--Mathematieal models. I. Brunet, M. (Manola), '955-1I. L6pez, D. (Diego), 1936-
QC981.8.C5 D45 2001 551.6'Ol'5118--dC21 2001042061
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© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2001
Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York in 2001.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 2001
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not
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Cover Design: Erich Kirchner, Heidelberg
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Preface
Over the last 20 years great effort has been devoted to the understanding of the
function and changes in the climate system, and the effects that an
anthropogenically forced shift in the earth's climate could induce on the dynamics
of environmental and socio-economic systems. Although climate change is global
in nature, greater knowledge is required on smaller scales to identify its spatial
structure and impacts. This book brings together, for the first time, the most
prototypical and up-to-date analyses from the broad field of detection and
modelling of regional climate change and the assessment of its associated natural
and economic effects.
This volume is composed of a selection of papers from those presented to the
International Scientific Meeting on the "Detection and Modelling of recent
Climate Change and its Effects on a Regional Scale", which was held at Tarragona
in May 2000. The meeting was co-organised by the Climate Change Research
Group (Geography Unit) of the Rovira i Virgili University and the Catalonian
Meteorological Service (Servei de Meteorologia de Catalunya, SMC) of the
Environment Department of the Autonomous Government of Catalonian (Spain).
The papers selected emphasise key advances in the fields of reconstruction,
detection and modelling of regional climate variability and change and the current
and potential impacts on environmental and socio-economic systems for a wide
range of world regions.
To present, and provide and understanding of, the key issues in these fields,
which requires the use of an integrated approach, the book has been structured into
four sequentially related parts. The first part deals with the topic of quality control
procedures and homogenisation of climate time-series. It is comprised of five
chapters that provide a methodological approach to the assessment of the quality
and homogeneity of climate data, and furnishes guidelines for achieving improved
results. This part starts with the in vi ted contribution of H. Alexandersson, wh ich
assesses past requirements of climate data homogeneity. The science of climate
change requires, without doubt, reliable, quality controlled and homogenised
datasets, with wh ich to identify temporal and spatial climate variations and their
patterns. Such data is also required to validate the numerical simulations provided
by AOGCMs and for the different downscaling techniques.
The second part focuses on identifying observed regional climate variability
and change, together with the most useful and oft discussed climate reconstruction
techniques. There are eighteen contributions to this part, starting with the P. D.
Iones paper. This puts into context the last 150 years of instrumentally measured
temperature changes with reference to the multi-proxy reconstruction of the last
vi
millennium, representing an indispensable global reference to the following
regional scale contributions. Nine chapters analyse long-term temperature changes
over different regions in Europe and Antarctica. Five are dedicated to precipitation
analyses and the rest to evaluating secular variations in surface air pressure and
winds.
A profound knowledge of climate variability and change is vital for our
understanding of patterns and modes of change of the climate system on a regional
sc ale, and the causes of recent temperature changes. These topics are assessed in
the third part, which is composed of fourteen chapters dedicated to analyses of
patterns of regional climate variability over several regions of the Northern and
Southern Hemispheres. It begins with an analysis of natural and anthropogenic
causes of the recent temperature shift. This is followed by other papers, which
focus on the study of the influence of large-scale circulation anomalies on spatial
and temporal precipitation variability, with a special emphasis on European and
African regions. These contributions also illustrate the application of the most
meaningful, and recently employed, methodologies (CCA, SVD, SSA, EOFs,
PCAs, etc.) to analyse the variability patterns ofregional climate.
The fourth and final part is centred on regional climate modelling and the
assessment of environmental and socio-economic impacts related to projected
global climate change. This part starts with a comprehensive overview, by T.
Carter, of the different approaches to the downscaling of AOGCMs and the
uncertainties related to assessing the impacts of both regional climate change, and
constructing relevant regional climate impacts scenarios. The following six
chapters are dedicated to the application of statistical and dynamical downscaling
techniques to validate the reliability of the RCMs simulations over different
European and South American regions. Assessments of the climate change impact
on the forestry dynarnic for Russia and Canada are addressed in the next two
chapters. The current and anticipated impacts of regional climate change on water
resources, forest fire risk and on socio-economic activities (transport, agriculture,
regional building stocks) are carefully analysed in the last seven chapters of the
book for different countries of the world.
A subject index is included at the end of the volume to encourage the reader to
penetrate deeper into each topic. Rather than offering a complete list quoting all
occurrences for each subject, we have only indicated the page number where each
one is discussed most extensively. A suitable list of the relevant acronyms used in
the book is also provided.
Finally, the editors would like to acknowledge the various people and
institutions that have made the publication of this book possible. Firstly, thanks to
the enthusiastic and dynamic participation of the two hundred experts that
attended the parent meeting and encouraged the organisers to edit a text
highlighting the work of many participants and invited speakers. Secondly, to the
institutions that made the organisation of this event possible, especially to their co
organisers, the Servei de Meteorologia de Catalunya, for its active scientific,
technical and financial support. We also recognise the following organisations:
vii
Tarragona's town hall, Rovira i Virgili Universty rectorship and research vice
chancellorship, CICYT, CIRIT, INM for their kind co-operation and financial
support. And thirdly, to the Meeting's Scientific Committee that rigorously
reviewed and selected the contributions incorporated here, to the authors that have
collaborated patiently and closely with the editors to see this book successfully
finished and to Springer-Verlag for publishing this multidisciplinary work.
Manola Brunet and Diego L6pez
Table of Contents
Preface
M. Brunet and D. L6pez v
Part I: Quality Control and Homogenisation of Climate Time- 1
series
1 Homogenisation of Climate Data, Difficult but Necessary
H. Alexandersson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2 A Correction Model for Homogenisation of Long Instrumental Data
Series
0. Mestre and H. Caussinus .. ................. . 13
3 Selection of Data Sets by Quality and its Role in Climate Research
P. Petrovic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4 Results of Homogeneity Testing of Long Time Series of Temperature
and Precipitation in Germany
G. Müller-Westermeier. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
5 The First Known Instrumental Meteorological Observations in
Extremadura (Spain): Badajoz (1830)
i. M. Vaquero, M. C. Gallego and i. A. Garcfa . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Part 11: Observed Regional Climate Variability and Change .. 53
6 Instrumental Temperature Change in the Context of the Last 1000
Years
P. D. iones 55
7 Temperature Series of the Czech Republic and its Relation to Northern
Hemisphere Temperatures in the Period 1961-1999
R. Brazdil, P. Stepanek and V. Kveton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
x
8 The Variations and Trends of the Surface Air Temperature in the
Northeastern of Spain from Middle Nineteenth Century Onwards
M Brunet, E. Aguilar, 0. Saladie, J. Sigro and D. Lopez. . . . . 81
9 A Differential Response of Northeastern Spain to Asymmetrie Trends
in Diurnal Warming Detected on aGlobai Scale
M Brunet, E. Aguilar, 0. Saladie, J. Sigro and D. Lopez ....... 95
10 Climate Variability Analysis of Temperature Series in the Medium
Ebro River Basin
J. Abaurrea, J. Asin, 0. Erdozain and E. Fernemdez ......... 109
11 Annual Temperature Evolution in the Southern Plateau of Spain from
the Construction ofRegional Climatic Time Series
E. Galan, R. Canada, F. Fernandez and B. Cervera . . . . . . . . . . 119
12 Temperature Variations and Trends in the Segura River Basin. An
Exploratory Analysis
R. Horcas, D. Rasilla and F. Fernandez-Garcia .......... 133
13 The Temperature Component of the Common-Sense Index in
Northwestern Iberian Peninsula
L. Gimeno, J. A. Anel, H. Gonzalez, P. Ribera, R. Garcia and E.
Hernandez . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
14 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the Norwegian Arctic
during the 20th Century
E. J. Forland and 1. Hanssen-Bauer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
15 Regionalization of Precipitation in Castilla and beon (Spain). Analysis
of its Temporal Behaviour
J. L. Labajo and A. Piorno ..................... 163
16 The Spatial and Temporal Structure ofRainfali Trends in the Valencia
Region (Eastern of Spain) over the Second Half of the 20th Century
J. C. Gonzalez, M L. Arrillaga and J. Raventos ........... 175
17 Trend and Variability Analysis of Rainfall Series and their Extreme
Events
J. Abaurrea and A. C. Cebrian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
18 Trends in Daily Precipitation Regimes and their Extremes at Three
Observatories in the Iberian Peninsula
J. A. Lopez . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203