Demographic Methods

320 Pages·1998·14.156 MB·English

by  Andrew Hinde

DDeemmooggrraapphhiicc MMeetthhooddss
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Demographic Methods
Andrew Hinde
Senior Lecturer in PopulationS tudies,U niversity of Southampton
RO Routledge
U
TLED Taylor & Francis Group
G
E
LONDON AND NEW YORK
First publishedi n 1998
Impressionp ublished 2009
by HodderE ducation
This edition published2 014 by Routledge
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Routledgeis an imprint oft he Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 1998A ndrew Hinde
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A cataloguer ecord for this book is availablef rom the British Library
Library of CongressC ataloging-in-PublicationD ata
A cataloge ntry for this book is availablef rom the Library of Congress
ISBN: 978 0 340 71892 6
TYpeset in 10112ptT Imes by Academic & Technical,B ristol
Contents
Preface xi
Acknowledgements xiv
1 Some Demographic Fundamentals 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 The basic demographice quation 1
l.3 Demographicp rocessesa s transitionsb etweens tates 2
1.4 Demographicr ates 3
l.5 Populations tructure 4
l.6 Data sources 4
Furtherr eading 7
Exercises 7
2 The Measurement of Mortality 8
2.1 Introduction 8
2.2 The cruded eathr ate 8
2.3 Age-specificd eathr ates 9
2.4 The two types of mortality rate 10
2.5 The Lexis chart 12
2.6 The relationshipb etweent he two types of mortality rate 13
2.7 Advantagesa nd disadvantageso f the two types of mortality rate 15
Exercises 16
3 Comparing Mortality Experiences 19
3.1 Introduction 19
3.2 Single-figurei ndices 19
3.3 The standardizedd eathr ate 21
3.4 The standardizedm ortality ratio 22
3.5 The limits of standardization 23
3.6 Other problemsc ommonlye ncounteredw hen comparingm ortality
experiences 25
Furtherr eading 26
Exercises 26
vi Contents
4 The Life Table 30
4.1 Introduction 30
4.2 The theory of the life table 30
4.3 Abridged life tables 33
4.4* The force of mortality 35
4.5 The calculationo f life tablesf or specific populations 37
4.6 English Life Table 14 39
4.7 Using the life table in practical work 39
4.8 The generals hapeo f life table quantities 43
Furtherr eading 45
Exercises 45
5 Multiple-Decrement Life Tables 49
5.1 Introduction 49
5.2 The idea of the multiple-decremenlti fe table 49
5.3 The algebrao f the multiple-decremenlti fe table 50
5.4 Somee xamples 52
5.5 Dependenta nd independendt eathr ates 54
5.6 The relationshipb etweend ependenat nd independenrt ates of decrement 54
5.7 Censoring 58
5.8 Estimatingm ultiple-decremenltif e tablesf rom data in the form of m-typer ates 59
Exercises 60
6 Survival Analysis 62
6.1 Introduction 62
6.2 A model of mortality 62
6.3* The survivor function 63
6.4* The probability density function 64
6.5* The hazardf unction 65
6.6* The relationshipsb etweent he three functions 66
6.7 Censoring 67
6.8* The estimationo f mortality using survival analysis 68
6.9 Using survival analysist o estimatea life table 73
6.10 Advantageso f survival analysis 74
Furtherr eading 74
Exercises 75
7 The Analysis of Marriage 77
7.1 Introduction 77
7.2 The marriagep rocess 78
7.3 Marriage rates 79
7.4 Period and cohort analysiso f marriage 83
7.5 Death and marriagec ombined 85
7.6 The averagea ge at marriage 86
7.7 The analysiso f marriageu sing current statusd ata 87
7.8 The analysiso f other transitionsi n the marriagep rocess 91
7.9 Cohabitationa nd separation 92
Furtherr eading 93
Exercises 93
Contents vii
8 The Measurement of Fertility 95
8.1 Introduction 95
8.2 Somes imple single-figurei ndices of fertility 95
8.3 Age-specificf ertility rates 97
8.4 Standardizationa pplied to fertility rates 99
8.5 The total fertility rate 100
8.6 Period and cohort analysiso f fertility 101
8.7 Advantagesa nd disadvantageos f the period approach 102
8.8 Advantagesa nd disadvantageso f the cohort approach 103
Furtherr eading 104
Exercises 104
9 Parity Progression 107
9.1 Introduction 107
9.2 Order-specificb irth rates 107
9.3 Parity progressionr atios 109
9.4 Period parity progressionr atios 110
9.5 Age-baseda nd parity-basedd ecompositiono f total fertility 117
Furtherr eading 118
Exercises 118
10 The Determinants of Fertility 121
10.1 Introduction 121
10.2 The effects of marriageo n fertility 122
10.3 Measureso f fertility specific to marital status 123
10.4 The effects of breastfeedinga nd abstinencefr om sexuali ntercoursea fter birth 124
lO.5 Birth control 125
10.6 Quantifying the effects of the proximated eterminantso f fertility 125
lO.7 Reproductiveh istories 129
Furtherr eading l30
Exercises 130
11 Birth Interval Analysis 133
11.1 Introduction l33
11.2 Birth intervals l33
1l.3 Data for the analysiso f birth intervals l35
11.4 The componentso f birth intervals l38
1l.5 Life table analysis 140
1l.6 Survival analysis 141
11.7 Covariates 144
1l.8* Estimatingt he parameters 145
11.9 Extensionsu sing survival analysis 147
Furtherr eading 148
Exercises 148
12 Population Growth 150
12.1 Introduction 150
12.2 Fertility and populationg rowth 151
VlIl Contents
12.3 The net reproductionr ate 152
12.4 Geometrica nd exponentialg rowth 154
12.5 The annualr ate of growth and the net reproductionr ate 157
Exercises 157
13 Models of Population Structure 159
13.1 Introduction 159
13.2 The age and sex structureo f a population 159
13.3 The demographicd eterminantso f the shapeo f the populationp yramid 162
13.4 The age and sex structurea s a historical record 163
13.5 Stationarya nd stablep opulations 164
13.6 Fertility, mortality and the age structurei n stablep opulations 165
13.7* Outline of a proof that a stablep opulationh as a constanta ge structure 167
13.8* The rate of growth 170
13.9 The length of a generation 171
Furtherr eading 173
Exercises 173
14 Applications of Stable Population Theory 176
14.1 Introduction 176
14.2 Generalf eatureso f a stablep opulation 176
14.3 Example: a company'sw orkforce 177
14.4 Demographicr econstruction 180
14.5 Model life tables 181
14.6 Demographicr econstructionw ith two censuses 183
14.7 Someu seful approximations 186
Furtherr eading 187
Exercises 187
15 The Analysis of Migration 190
15.1 Introduction 190
15.2 Somep reliminary issues 191
15.3 Data for the analysiso f migration: moves and transitions 192
15.4 Migration rates 193
15.5 Indirect estimationo f net migration 194
15.6 Migration streams 196
Further reading 197
16 Introducing Population Projection 198
16.1 Introduction 198
16.2 The needf or populationf orecasts 199
16.3 Approachest o populationp rojection 199
16.4 The generalp rocedure 200
16.5* The mathematicaml ethod 201
16.6 The limitations of the mathematicaml ethod 203
Exercise 204
Contents IX
17 The Component Method of Population Projection 205
17.1 Introduction 205
17.2 Principles of the method 206
17.3 The details of the method 207
17.4 The use of broadera ge groups 210
17.5 Data requirements 211
17.6 More complex componentp rojections 215
17.7 Populationp rojectionsf or subnationalu nits 216
Further reading 217
Exercises 217
18 Population Projection and Population Dynamics 219
18.1 Introduction 219
18.2 The United Kingdom national populationp rojections 219
18.3 The impact of uncertaintya bout fertility 220
18.4 Replacemenlte vel and populationm omentum 223
18.5 A cautionaryt ale of populationp rojection 224
Furtherr eading 225
Appendix 226
Solutions to Exercises 228
References 292
Index 297