Democracy at Risk: How Terrorist Threats Affect the Public (Chicago Studies in American Politics)

282 Pages·2009·1.2 MB·English

by  Jennifer L. Merolla

Democracy at Risk
CHICAGO STUDIES IN AMERICAN POLITICS
A series edited by Benjamin I. Page, Susan Herbst, Lawrence R. Jacobs, and
James Druckman
Also in the series:
In Time of War: Understanding Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq
ADAM J. BERINSKY
Us Against Them: Ethnocentric Foundations of American Opinion
DONALD R. KINDER AND CINDY D. KAM
The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democrats and Conservatives Became
Republicans
MATTHEW LEVENDUSKY
Agendas and Instability in American Politics, second edition
FRANK R. BAUMGARTNER AND BRYAN D. JONES
The Private Abuse of the Public Interest
LAWRENCE D. BROWN AND LAWRENCE R. JACOBS
The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform
MARTY COHEN, DAVID KAROL, HANS NOEL, AND JOHN ZALLER
Same Sex, Different Politics: Success and Failure in the Struggles over Gay Rights
GARY MUCCIARONI
Democracy at Risk
How Terrorist Threats Affect the Public
Jennifer L. Merolla and
Elizabeth J. Zechmeister
The University of Chicago Press | Chicago and London
Jennifer L. Merolla is associate professor in the Department of Politics and Policy
at Claremont Graduate University. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister is assistant professor
of political science at Vanderbilt University.
The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637
The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London
© 2009 by The University of Chicago
All rights reserved. Published 2009
Printed in the United States of America
18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 1 2 3 4 5
ISBN- 13: 978- 0- 226- 52054- 4 (cloth)
ISBN- 13: 978- 0- 226- 52055- 1 (paper)
ISBN- 10: 0- 226- 52054- 4 (cloth)
ISBN- 10: 0- 226- 52055- 2 (paper)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Merolla, Jennifer Lee, 1975–
Democracy at risk : how terrorist threats affect the public / Jennifer L.
Merolla and Elizabeth J. Zechmeister.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-0-226-52054-4 (cloth : alk. paper)
ISBN-13: 978-0-226-52055-1 (pbk. : alk. paper)
ISBN-10: 0-226-52054-4 (cloth : alk. paper)
ISBN-10: 0-226-52055-2 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Terrorism—Prevention—Government policy—United States—Public
opinion. 2. Terrorism—United States—Prevention. 3. Voting—United States.
4. Political psychology. I. Zechmeister, Elizabeth J., 1972– II. Title.
HV6432.M47 2009
363.325'12—dc22
2009010523
o The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the
American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for
Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48- 1992.
Contents
List of Figures vii
List of Tables ix
Abbreviations xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Introduction 1
1 Coping with the Threat of Terrorism 25
2 Crisis Creation: A Methodological Tour 49
3 Love Thy Neighbor? Terror Threat and the Social Fabric 75
4 Holding Out for a Hero: Looking for Leadership in Times of Terror
Threat 99
5 Enabling Charismatic Leadership in Times of Terror Threat 121
6 Engage Abroad, Protect at Home 157
Conclusion 177
Appendix: Question Wordings and Codings 201
Notes 223
References 241
Index 255
For Web Supplements A, B, and C, see http: // www.press.uchicago.edu / books / merolla.

Figures
I.1 Fatalities and injuries associated with international terror incidents,
1968–2006 5
I.2 Worry over being a “victim” of a terrorist attack, 2001–2007 7
I.3 Approval ratings for George W. Bush, Rudolph Giuliani, and Tony Blair,
2001–2008 13
I.4 Support for policies restricting civil liberties, 2002–2005 15
1.1 The effects of terror threat on attitudes, evaluations, and behavior 33
2.1 Mean worry about terrorist attacks by condition, version, and
country 68
2.2 Mean worry about the economy by condition, version, and country 71
3.1 Maximum predicted effect of terror threat on neighbor trust 82
3.2 Maximum predicted change in probability of preferring increased
spending 85
3.3 Effects of authoritarian predispositions on authoritarian attitudes, condi-
tioned by experimental conditions, US05ns 92
3.4 Effects of authoritarian predispositions on authoritarian attitudes, condi-
tioned by experimental conditions, MEX06s 93
3.5 Effects of authoritarian predispositions on tolerance, conditioned by
experimental conditions, MEX06s 96
3.6 Effects of authoritarian predispositions on crime attitudes, conditioned
by experimental conditions, MEX06s 97
viii Figures
4.1 Predicted probability of voting for Bush at different values of Leadership
Gap by condition, US04s 116
4.2 Predicted probability of voting for Schwarzenegger at different values of
Leadership Gap by condition, US06s 117
4.3 Change in the probability of voting for Bush moving from the lowest
to highest leadership evaluation, by likelihood of future terrorist at-
tacks 119
5.1 Effect of conditions at different values on the political information scale,
US05ns 134
5.2 Effect of different types of threat on charisma, Mexico CIDE- CSES 135
5.3 Level of blame assigned to Bush for Iraq, by condition, partisanship, and
charisma, US04s 140
5.4 Level of sacrifi ce for Bush by charisma, condition, and partisanship,
US04s 145
6.1 Average support for a UN peacekeeping force by experimental condition
and country, MEX06s and US07s 167
6.2 Average support for antiterrorism policies by experimental condition
and country, MEX06s and US07s 169
6.3 Average support for protecting the homeland by experimental condition
and country, MEX06s and US07s 174
Tables
I.1 Percent of individuals who think terrorism is a “very big problem” 8
2.1 Details on the experimental studies 63
2.2 Distribution of subjects across conditions and form of treatment 63
2.3 Mean values on demographic and dispositional variables, by sample and
conditions 65
2.4 Factors from emotion battery by condition 69
3.1 Threat, authoritarian predispositions, and authoritarian attitudes 90–91
4.1 Evaluations of Leadership Gap, US04s and US06s 107
4.2 Evaluations of difference in Bush Leadership, ANES panel data 110–111
4.3 Analysis of Vote Bush (US04s) and Vote Schwarzenegger (US06s) 114–115
5.1 Perceptions of charisma, US04s, US05ns and MEX06s 132–133
5.2 Determinants of blame attribution, US04s and US05ns 138–139
5.3 Determinants of self- sacrifi ce, US04s and US05ns 148–149
5.4 Preferences over executive strength, MEX06s and US07s 152–153
6.1 Preferences over being active in world affairs for the United States and
Mexico, 2004 and 2006 164
6.2 Preferences over support for a UN peacekeeping force in the United
States and Mexico, 2004 and 2006 166
6.3 Support for measures to protect the homeland in the United States and
Mexico, 2004 and 2006 173