Table Of Content

THEDEMANDFORFOODSTAPLESINUGANDA By PETERB.MIJUMBI ADISSERTATIONPRESENTEDTOTHEGRADUATESCHOOLOFTHE UNIVERSITYOFFLORIDAINPARTIALFULFILLMENTOFTHE REQUIREMENTSFORTHEDEGREEOFDOCTOROFPHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITYOFFLORIDA 2000 Idedicatethisworktomysister,Grace. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Therearemanyp>eoplethathavebeenofgreathelptomeinthepreparationofthis dissertation. Iruntheriskofinadvertentlyomittingsomedeservingindividuals,andif so,I,sincerely,apologize. First,Iwouldhketothankmychairman.Dr.ThomasSpreen forhisunwaveringsupportthroughoutthecourseofmyprogramandinsightfulconmients inpreparationofthisdocument. IwouldhketoacknowledgeDr. Robert Emerson's indispensablehelpintheinterpretationandadaptationofDeaton's analyticaldem£ind modelthatiscentraltothisdissertation. ManythanksalsogotoDr.JamesSeale,Dr.Max LanghamandDr.WiUiamBombergerfortheirhelpfulcommentsandencouragementalong theway. TheAgriculturalEconomicsSupportServicesgroup,especiallyRogerClemmons,Alex HeymanandCarlosJaureguiwereoftremendoushelptomeatvariousstagesofmydisser- tationresearch. ThanksalsogoestonumerousindividualsoftheFREDsupportstaflFfor facihtatingthemanybehindthescenesprocessesIhavehadtogothroughinthecourseof myprogram. AllthiscouldnothavemateriahzedwithoutfimdingsupportfromtheRockefellerFoim- dation,theMargoesFoundationandtheDepartmentofFoodandResourceEconomicsat theUniversityofFlorida. Toeach,Iammostgrateful. Mydissertationresearch, fundedbytheRockefellerFoimdation, tookmetoUganda whereIinteractedwithanumberoforganizationsandindividualswhowereveryhelpful tome. ManythanksgotostaffmembersofNamulongeResearchInstitute,theUganda NationalCouncilofScienceandTechnology,theDepartmentofStatisticsintheMinistryof FinanceandEconomicDevelopment,theMakerereUniversityFacultyofAgricultureand thedistrictagriculturalofficesofKumiandPalhsa. Specialthanksgotomyhousehold surveyteamsinKumiandPaUisa. iii Myfather,hasbeenmymaininspirationthroughoutthecourseofmystudies. Iam verygratefultohimfortheencouragement,guidanceandwordsofwisdomhehasalways affordedmeandforlayingastrongandenviablefoundationforthefamily. Specialthanks alsogototherestofmyfamilyinUgandaandCanadafortheirimerringloveandfor believinginme. ThefactthatIhavehadtoapportionmytimebetweenGainesville,Floridaandmy familyinNorthCarolinaputconsiderablestrainonmyfamilyandme. Icouldneverhave donewithouttheimconditionalsupportandloveofmywife.Dr.OhviaMijumbiandmy twosonsRichardandRaymondduringtheseverytryingtimes. AwordofthankstothemanyfellowFREgraduatestudentsIhaveinteractedwithover theyearsandwhoinvariouswayshavemademystayhereinstructiveandenjoyable. I alsoextendmanythankstothefriendshipextendedtomebyotherfacultyandstudentsat theUniversityofFlorida.Ifeelmyacademic,cultural,andpersonalexperienceshavebeen enrichedbyalltheseinteractions. SpecialthanksgototheUgandaCommunityinGainesvillemanyofwhomhelpedmein variouswaysthatenabledmetocompletemystudyprogramsuccessfully. Icannotforget thespecialfriendshipofDr.EdwardBresnyanandhisfamilywhohavebeenlikefamilyto me. IalsowishtothankDr.DanielOttemoellerandDr.KimberleyLanegranforbeing suchwonderfulandsupportivefamilyfriends. iv TABLEOFCONTENTS 2age ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iii LISTOFTABLES viii LISTOFFIGURES x ABSTRACT xi CHAPTERS 1 INTRODUCTION 1 LI TheImportanceofFoodStaplesinUganda'sEkionomy 1 L2 BackgroundtoUganda'sAgriculture 3 L2.1 AgricultureLaborForce 4 1.2.2 LandTenure 5 L2.3 Qimate,ReliefandFarmingSystems 6 L2.4 Uganda'sStapleFoods 7 L2.5 TheIncidenceofRegionalPovertyinUganda 11 1.2.6 FoodConsmnptionPatternsinL^ganda 13 1.3 ProblemStatement 14 1.4 Hypothesis 14 1.5 ResearchObjectives 15 2 LITERATUREREVIEW 16 2.1 Introduction 16 2.2 ReviewofHouseholdConsumerTheory 16 2.2.1 PreferenceAxioms 17 2.3 PropertiesofDemandSystems 17 2.3.1 SystemofDemandEquations 18 2.3.2 GeneralRestrictionsofDemandFunctions 19 2.4 FactorsAffectingHouseholdDemandforFoodStaples 20 2.5 TheoreticalConsiderations 22 2.6 PastStudiesonFoodConsumptioninUganda 22 3 METHODOLOGY 24 3.1 Introduction 24 3.2 QuaHtyEffects 25 3.3 MeasurementError 29 3.4 FixedEffects 30 3.5 ModelConceptualFramework 30 V 3.6 StatisticalConsiderationsintheEstimationoftheModel 35 3.7 Data 42 3.7.1 DataSourceandSampleSize 42 3.7.2 Questionnaires 42 3.7.3 DataManipulation 43 3.7.4 ComputationofModelVariables 43 3.7.5 DemographicVariables 45 3.8 EmpiricalEstimationoftheModel 47 3.9 ModelLimitations 49 4 RESULTSANDDISCUSSION 51 4.1 Introduction 51 4.2 DescriptiveResults 53 4.2.1 HouseholdSizeandSexRatio 53 4.2.2 HouseholdExpenditures 53 4.2.3 FoodBudgetShares 54 4.2.4 FoodConsumptionPatterns 54 4.3 VariationsinRegionalFoodPrices 55 4.3.1 RegressionofLInitValuesonDimmiies 56 4.4 FirstStageWithin-ClusterRegressionResults 57 4.4.1 Age-SexRatioandEducationCoefficients 58 4.4.2 Coefficientsofhouseholdsizeandexpenditure,andexpendi- tureelasticities 73 4.5 First-StageVariances,CovariancesandClusterSizes 75 4.5.1 ResidualVariancesandCovariances 75 4.5.2 OusterSizes 80 4.6 Cross-ClusterVariancesandCovariancesandCorrections 82 4.7 PriceElasticityEstimates 83 4.7.1 CentralRegion 86 4.7.2 EasternRegion 87 4.7.3 NorthernRegion 88 4.7.4 WesternRegion 88 5 SUMMARYCONCLUSIONSANDPOLICYRECOMMENDATIONS . . 92 5.1 Introduction 92 5.2 Uganda'sFoodEconomy 92 5.3 CurrentandPastRegionalFoodConsumptionPatternsinUganda 93 5.3.1 RegionalFoodDemandElasticitiesandDemographicEffects 96 5.3.2 EffectsofDemographicVariables 96 5.3.3 ExpenditureElasticities 97 5.3.4 PriceElasticities 97 5.4 PolicyImplicationsandRecommendations 98 5.4.1 Recommendations 99 APPENDICES 100 A HOUSEHOLDSURVEYQUESTIONNAIRES 100 vi B SOMEFIGURES 102 C DISTRIBUTIONOFHOUSEHOLDPOPULATIONBYAGEANDSEX INUGANDA 105 REFERENCES 107 BIOGRAPHICALSKETCH 109 vii LISTOFTABLES Table page 1.1 AverageBudgetSharesofFoodsCommonlyConsumedinUganda 11 1.2 PercentageDistributionofRuralHouseholdsbyMonthlyHouseholdIncome 12 1.3 PercentageDistributionofUrbanHouseholdsbyMonthlyHouseholdIncome 12 1.4 BudgetSharesofSelectedFoodStaplesinRuralRegionsofLIganda 13 1.5 BudgetSharesofSelectedFoodStaplesinLTrbanRegionsofUganda .... 13 3.1 RangesofAcceptableUnitValues(UShs.perkg.) 45 3.2 Exiucation Level ofHeads ofHouseholds and Average Household Size in LTgandabyGender 48 4.1 DescriptiveRuralHouseholdStatisticsComputedfromSurveyData(March '92toMarch'93) 52 4.2 DescriptiveUrbanHouseholdStatisticsComputedfromSurveyData(March '92toMarch'93) 52 4.3 RegionalPerCapitaConsumption1992/93(Kgperhead) 54 4.4 RegionalRuralFoodPriceVariation 55 4.5 RegionalLTrbanFoodPriceVariation 56 4.6 ObservedPriceDifferencesBetweenSurveyandHarvestPeriodsintheFour RegionsofUganda 56 4.7 RegressionofUnitValuesonRegionalDummiesinBothUrbanandRural Sectors 57 4.8 RuralDemographicCoefficients: Matoke 59 4.9 RuralDemographicCoefficients: Sweetpotatoes 60 4.10 RuralDemographicCoefficients: Cassava 61 4.11 RuralDemographicCoefficients: Maize 62 4.12 Riu-alDemographicCoefficients: Millet 63 4.13 R\u-alDemographicCoefficients: Beef 64 4.14 RuralDemographicCoefficients: Beans 65 viii 4.15 UrbanDemographicCoefficients: Matoke 66 4.16 UrbanDemographicCoefficients: Sweetpotatoes 67 4.17 UrbanDemographicCoefficients: Cassava 68 4.18 UrbanDemographicCoefficients: Maize 69 4.19 UrbanDemographicCoefficients: Millet 70 4.20 UrbanDemographicCoefficients:Beef 71 4.21 UrbanDemographicCoefficients: Beans 72 4.22 FirstStageRegressionEstimates(CentralRegion) 76 4.23 FirstStageRegressionEstimates(EasternRegion) 77 4.24 FirstStageRegressionEstimates(NorthernRegion) 78 4.25 FirstStageRegressionEstimates(WesternRegion) 79 4.26 First-StageVariances,CovariancesandClusterSizes: CentralRegion 80 4.27 First-StageVariances,CovariancesandClusterSizes: EasternRegion 81 4.28 First-StageVariances,CovariancesandClusterSizes: NorthernRegion. ... 81 4.29 First-StageVariances,CovariancesandClusterSizes: WesternRegion. ... 82 4.30 Cross-ClusterVariancesandCovariancesandCorrections: CentralRegion. . 84 4.31 Cross-ClusterVariancesandCovariancesandCorrections: EasternRegion. . 84 4.32 Cross-ClusterVariancesandCovariancesandCorrections: NorthernRegion. 85 4.33 Cross-ClusterVariancesandCovariancesandCorrections: WesternRegion.. 85 4.34 EstimatesofFoodPriceElasticities: Uganda,CentralRegion,1993-94. ... 87 4.35 EstimatesofFoodPriceElasticities: Uganda,EasternRegion,1993-94. ... 89 4.36 EstimatesofFoodPriceElasticities: Uganda,NorthernRegion,1993-94. . . 90 4.37 EstimatesofFoodPriceElasticities: Uganda,WesternRegion,1993-94. . . 91 A.l HouseholdConsumptionExpenditureQuestionnaire 100 A.2 HouseholdDemographicsQuestionnaire 101 C.l HouseholdSexandAgeDistribution: CentralRegion 105 C.2 HouseholdSexandAgeDistribution: EasternRegion 105 C.3 HouseholdSexandAgeDistribution: NorthernRegion 105 C.4 HouseholdSexandAgeDistribution: WesternRegion 106 ix LISTOFFIGURES Figure page B.l AMapofUgandaShowingRegionalandDistrictBoundaries 103 B.2 Uganda'sCropCalendar 104 X