Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies

148 Pages·2010·2.83 MB·English

by  National Research Council, Space Studies Board, Committee to Review Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies

Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies
Committee to Review Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies
Space Studies Board
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible
for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH06CE15B between the National Academy of Sciences
and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda-
tions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-14968-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-14968-1
Cover: Cover design by Tim Warchocki. Images courtesy of NASA (Earth) and Tim Warchocki (asteroid
and stars).
Copies of this report are available free of charge from:
Space Studies Board
National Research Council
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W.,
Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; [phone] or [phone] (in the Washington metropolitan
area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars
engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to
their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the
Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters.
Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy
of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in
the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising
the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed
at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of
engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services
of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health
of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its
congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues
of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate
the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and
advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by -the Acad
emy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and
the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific
and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National
Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies
OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD AND
THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
An Enabling Foundation for NASA’s Space and Earth Science Missions (Space Studies Board [SSB], 2010)
Revitalizing NASA’s Suborbital Program: Advancing Science, Driving Innovation, and Developing a Workforce
(SSB, 2010)
America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (SSB with the Aeronautics
and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2009)
Approaches to Future Space Cooperation and Competition in a Globalizing World: Summary of a Workshop
(SSB with ASEB, 2009)
Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Mars Sample Return Missions (SSB, 2009)
Fostering Visions for the Future: A Review of the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (ASEB, 2009)
Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2009)
A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Heliophysics Program (SSB, 2009)
Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration (SSB with
ASEB, 2009)
Assessing the Research and Development Plan for the Next Generation Air Transportation System: Summary of
a Workshop (ASEB, 2008)
A Constrained Space Exploration Technology Program: A Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology
Development Program (ASEB, 2008)
Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: Elements of a Strategy to Recover
Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring (SSB, 2008)
Final Report of the Committee for the Review of Proposals to the 2008 Engineering Research and
Commercialization Program of the Ohio Third Frontier Program (ASEB, 2008)
Final Report of the Committee to Review Proposals to the 2008 Ohio Research Scholars Program of the State of
Ohio (ASEB, 2008)
Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA’s Constellation System (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Managing Space Radiation Risk in the New Era of Space Exploration (ASEB, 2008)
NASA Aeronautics Research: An Assessment (ASEB, 2008)
Opening New Frontiers in Space: Choices for the Next New Frontiers Announcement of Opportunity (SSB,
2008)
Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program: An Interim Report (ASEB, 2008)
Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (SSB,
2008)
Space Science and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2008)
United States Civil Space Policy: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Wake Turbulence: An Obstacle to Increased Air Traffic Capacity (ASEB, 2008)
Limited copies of SSB reports are available free of charge from
Space Studies Board
National Research Council
The Keck Center of the National Academies
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001
[phone]/
Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies
COMMITTEE TO REVIEW NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT SURVEYS
AND HAZARD MITIGATION STRATEGIES
Steering Committee
IRWIN I. SHAPIRO, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Chair
MICHAEL A’HEARN, University of Maryland, College Park, Vice Chair
FAITH VILAS, MMT Observatory at Mount Hopkins, Arizona, Vice Chair
ANDREW F. CHENG, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
FRANK CULBERTSON, JR., Orbital Sciences Corporation
DAVID C. JEWITT, University of California, Los Angeles
STEPHEN MACKWELL, Lunar and Planetary Institute
H. JAY MELOSH, Purdue University
JOSEPH H. ROTHENBERG, JHR Consulting
Survey/Detection Panel
FAITH VILAS, MMT Observatory at Mount Hopkins, Arizona, Chair
PAUL ABELL, Planetary Science Institute
ROBERT F. ARENTZ, Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corporation
LANCE A.M. BENNER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
WILLIAM F. BOTTKE, Southwest Research Institute
WILLIAM E. BURROWS, Independent Aerospace Writer and Historian
ANDREW F. CHENG, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
ROBERT D. CULP, University of Colorado, Boulder
YANGA FERNANDEZ, University of Central Florida
LYNNE JONES, University of Washington
STEPHEN MACKWELL, Lunar and Planetary Institute
AMY MAINZER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
GORDON H. PETTENGILL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (retired)
JOHN RICE, University of California, Berkeley
Mitigation Panel
MICHAEL A’HEARN, University of Maryland, College Park, Chair
MICHAEL J.S. BELTON, Belton Space Exploration Initiatives, LLC
MARK BOSLOUGH, Sandia National Laboratories
CLARK R. CHAPMAN, Southwest Research Institute
SIGRID CLOSE, Stanford University
JAMES A. DATOR, University of Hawaii, Manoa
DAVID S.P. DEARBORN, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
KEITH A. HOLSAPPLE, University of Washington
DAVID Y. KUSNIERKIEWICZ, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
PAULO LOZANO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EDWARD D. McCULLOUGH, The Boeing Company (retired)
H. JAY MELOSH, Purdue University
DAVID J. NASH, Dave Nash & Associates, LLC
DANIEL J. SCHEERES, University of Colorado, Boulder
SARAH T. STEWART-MUKHOPADHYAY, Harvard University
KATHRYN C. THORNTON, University of Virginia
v
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies
Staff
DWAYNE A. DAY, Study Director, Space Studies Board
PAUL JACKSON, Study Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
DAVID H. SMITH, Senior Program Officer, Space Studies Board
ABIGAIL A. SHEFFER, Associate Program Officer
LEWIS GROSWALD, Research Associate, Space Studies Board
VICTORIA SWISHER, Research Associate, Space Studies Board (through July 2009)
CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor, Space Studies Board
ANDREA M. REBHOLZ, Program Associate, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
RODNEY N. HOWARD, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board
vi
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies
SPACE STUDIES BOARD
CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair
A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired), Vice Chair
DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado
STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering
CHARLES L. BENNETT, Johns Hopkins University
YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant
ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN, Dixie State College and Aerospace Corporation
ALAN DRESSLER, The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution
JACK D. FELLOWS, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology
JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, Naval War College
KLAUS KEIL, University of Hawaii
MOLLY K. MACAULEY, Resources for the Future
BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire
ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
JAMES PAWELCZYK, Pennsylvania State University
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of California, Irvine
JOAN VERNIKOS, Thirdage LLC
JOSEPH F. VEVERKA, Cornell University
WARREN M. WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research
CHARLES E. WOODWARD, University of Minnesota
ELLEN G. ZWEIBEL, University of Wisconsin
MICHAEL MOLONEY, Director (from April 1, 2010)
RICHARD E. ROWBERG, Interim Director (from March 2, 2009, to March 31, 2010)
MARCIA S. SMITH, Director (until March 1, 2009)
vii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
RAYMOND S. COLLADAY, Lockheed Martin Astronautics (retired), Chair
KYLE T. ALFRIEND, Texas A&M University
AMY L. BUHRIG, Boeing Commercial Airplanes Group
PIERRE CHAO, Center for Strategic and International Studies
INDERJIT CHOPRA, University of Maryland, College Park
JOHN-PAUL B. CLARKE, Georgia Institute of Technology
RAVI B. DEO, Northrop Grumman Corporation (retired)
MICA R. ENDSLEY, SA Technologies
DAVID GOLDSTON, Harvard University
R. JOHN HANSMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN B. HAYHURST, Boeing Company (retired)
PRESTON HENNE, Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation
RICHARD KOHRS, Independent Consultant
IVETT LEYVA, Air Force Research Laboratory, Edwards Air Force Base
ELAINE S. ORAN, Naval Research Laboratory
ELI RESHOTKO, Case Western Reserve University
EDMOND SOLIDAY, United Airlines (retired)
MICHAEL MOLONEY, Director (from April 1, 2010)
RICHARD E. ROWBERG, Interim Director (from March 2, 2009, to March 31, 2010)
MARCIA S. SMITH, Director (until March 1, 2009)
viii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies
Dedication
We dedicate this report to our beloved friend and colleague Steven J. Ostro (1946-2008),
who devoted his professional life to the radar study of asteroids and other small bodies
in the solar system. His deep understanding, unflagging concentration, and devotion to
developing the potential of his junior colleagues led to many significant discoveries on the
characteristics, dynamics, and unusual shapes of near-Earth objects.
ix
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.