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484 Pages·2000·13.403 MB·English
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Decision Making: Recent Developments and Worldwide Applications Applied Optimization Volume 45 Series Editors: Panos M. Pardalos University of Florida, U.S.A. Donald Hearn University of Florida, U.S.A. The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume. Decision Making: Recent Developments and Worldwide Applications Edited by Stelios H. Zanakis Florida International University, College of Business Administration, Decision Science & Information Systems Department, Miami, Florida, U.S.A. Georgios Doukidis Athens University of Economics & Business, Department of Management Science and Technology, Athens, Greece and Constantin Zopounidis Technical University of Crete, Department of Production Engineering and Management, Financial Engineering Laboratory, University Campus, Chania, Greece SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publieation Data Deeision making : recent developments and worldwide applieations / edited by Stelios H. Zanakis, Georgios Doukidis, Constantin Zopounidis. p. em. -- (Applied optimization ; v. 45) A seIection of 31 papers representative of the 700 presented at the 5th International Conference of the Deeision Seienees Institute held in Athens, Greece, July 4-7, 1999. IncIudes index. ISBN 978-1-4419-4839-7 ISBN 978-1-4757-4919-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4757-4919-9 1. Decision making--Data proeessing--Congresses. 2. Decision support systems--Congresses. 3. Management infonnation systems--Congresses. 4. Business--Data processing--Congresses. 5. Edueation--Data proeessing--Congresses. 6. Environmental protection--Data proeessing--Congresses. 7. Health serviees administration--Data processing--Congresses. 8. Mathematieal optimization--Congresses. 1. Zanakis, S. H. II. Doukidis, Georgios 1., 1958-III. Zopounidis, Constantin. IV. Decision Seienees Institute. International Meeting (5th: 1999: Athens, Greeee) V. Series. HD30.23 .D3826 2000 658.4'03--de21 00-064701 ISBN 978-1-4419-4839-7 Printed an acid-free paper AII Rights Reserved © 2000 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 2000 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1 st edition 2000 No part of the material proteeted by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any fonn or by any means, electronic or mechanical, inc\uding photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written pennission from the copyright owner This volume is dedicated to our wives: Eleni Lina Kleanthi CONTENTS EDITORIAL XI 1. MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS Empirical assessment of information technology chargeback systems decisions 3 D.H. Drury Lessons learnt from the successful adoption of an ERP: The central role of trust 17 D. Gefen Simultaneous analysis of heterogenous databases on the web: The ADDSIA project 31 JM Lamb, C.R. Smart 2. EDUCATION INNOVATIONS & DISTANCE LEARNING Decision support for the management of admissions to academic programs 49 K.s. Dhir, WH. Platt, G. Watts The use of tacit knowledge in selection decisions in universities 65 MA. Barrett, L.K. Hort 3. INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Role of political violence in foreign direct investment decisions 83 H. Singh On the stability of countries' national technological systems 97 W Nasierowski, F.J Arcelus 4. MARKETING Marketing of differentiated fresh produce 115 G. Baourakis, E. Lassithiotaki, P.M Pardalos A decision support system for the seller's return problem in the product line design 131 G. Alexouda, K. Paparrizos VI11 5. FINANCE AND BANKING Portfolio perfonnance measures: A brief survey and hypothesis testing 143 G.L. Ghai, T.E. Pactwa, AJ Prakash A system dynamics model of stock price movements 157 P.L. Kunsch, M Theys, A. Chevalier, J-P. Iacopetta Infonnation effects on the accuracy of neural network financial forecasting 173 S. Walczak Is the Taiwan stock market efficient? 183 JP. Gupta, 1.M Pandey, Chen Chao-Fu The dynamics of implied volatility surfaces 197 G. Skiadopoulos, S. Hodges, L. Clewlow Application of non stationary Markovian models to risk management in automobile leasing 213 D.L. Smith, Y. Wu, D. Matthew 6. OPTIMIZATION & DECISION MAKING Decision making Under Various Types of Uncertainty 233 R.R. Yager Decision aid in the optimization of the interval objective function 251 C.A. Antunes, J Climaco A fuzzy extension of a mixed integer MOLP model for solving the power generation expansion problem 263 G. Mavrotas, D. Diakoulaki Management science for marine petroleum logistics 279 E.D. Chajakis 7. MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, AID & PRACTICE Dealing with missing data in rough set analysis of multi-attribute and multi-criteria decision problems 295 S. Greco, B. Matarazzo, R. Slowinski Cardinal value measurement with MACBETH 317 C. A. Bana e Costa, J-c. Vansnick Inferring a multicriteria preference model for rural development projects evaluation 331 E. Krassadaki, Y. Siskos An adaptable framework for educational software evaluation 347 1. Stame/os, 1. Refanidis, P. Katsaros, A. Tsoukias, 1. Vlahavas, A. Pombortsis ix Assessing country risk using a multi-group discrimination method: A comparative analysis 361 M Doumpos, K Pentaraki, C Zopounidis, C Agorastos 8. DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY RODOS: Decision support for nuclear emergencies 381 1. Bartzis,J Ehrhardt, S. French, 1. Lochard, M Morrey, KN. Papamichail, K Sinkko, A. Sohier DSS for the evaluation of national IT infrastructure investments: A study of cable television in Greece 397 G.M. Giaglis, KM Manikas, V Pergioudakis, G.I. Doukidis, P. Miliotis Global IT outsourcing decisions: Contract structure, negotiations, and global deal teams 413 S. T Huhn, R.A. Holloway, B.A. Potter, R.A. Berry Using Internet multimedia database information systems for decision support in conservation planning 425 M Angelides, M.C Angelides An interactive workload and risk balancing model and decision support system for probationer assignment 443 JR. Baker, A.C Saydam, P.K Lattimore 9. HEALTH CARE PLANNING & HOSPITAL OPERATIONS A goal programming scheme to determine the budget assignment among the hospitals of a sanitary system 459 1.1. Martin, M.P. Lopez del Amo, R. Caballero, T Gomez, 1. Molina, F. Ruiz A simulation model to evaluate the interaction between acute, rehabilitation, long stay care and the community 475 E. El-Darzi, C Vasilakis, TJ Chaussalet, P.H. Millard AUTHOR INDEX 487 EDITORIAL Decision-making has become a complicated and integrated process, within a fIrm, an industry and globally. The continuous advances in information technology and the rapid changes in the international business environment, necessitate a change in the point of view through which decision making problems are addressed. Academic researchers and practitioners of business administration, management science and operations research are now seeking to integrate the human factor and the existing practical experiences with the sophistication achieved through the advances in research and technology, to gain managerial and decision making efficiency. The accomplishment of this integration will be a major breakthrough and thrust towards the improvement of the quality of decisions taken within the business and public administration context. Several international scientifIc associations have been formed to allow the communication between academic researchers and professionals on issues relevant to the aforementioned integration. Among them, the Decision Sciences Institute is an interdisciplinary, international organization dedicated to the advancement of the science and practice of education and research about business decisions. To pursue this mission, the Institute facilitates the development and dissemination of knowledge in the diverse disciplines of the decision sciences. The Institute provides an international forum for presenting and sharing research in the study of decision processes across disciplines, in both traditional and emerging areas of study. Specifically, the Institute seeks to defme the scope of quantitative methods to functional and behavioral problems of administration and the degree of sophistication that should be achieved by graduates of business schools. The 5th International Conference of the Decision Sciences Institute with central theme "Integrating Technology and Human Decisions - Global Bridges Into the 21 st Century", was held in Athens, Greece, July 4-7, 1999. The publication of this book is made on the occasion of this major international conference, and includes a representative cross section of the seven hundred papers presented by many international participants from various academic institutions and businesses around the globe. The aim of the book is to present, in a complete edited volume, the most recent developments in the field of decision making, for addressing managerial decision problem in private and public organizations. The book covers a wide range of areas, which are essential both from an academic and practical view point, such as finance, marketing, transportation! logistics, production!operations management, information technology, telecommunications, etc. Furthermore, the book emphasizes the presentation of methodologies that can be used to support the decision making process, and their real world applications in various settings, such as public and environmental affairs, health care planning, hospitality management, entrepreneurship, privatization in transition economies, international business, etc. These methodologies originate from the fields of operations research and management science (optimization, multiple criteria decision making, data envelopment analysis), information technology (management information and decision support systems, outsourcing, internet and electronic commerce), artifIcial intelligence (expert systems, neural networks, fuzzy sets) and statistics. xii The proposed book has several special characteristics and features: variety of decision making fields and decision methodologies, highly recognized contributors from several countries, a variety of applications, and a considerable number of survey/expository papers. These characteristics ensure high quality and timely relevance, international/global flavor, and significant contributions in advancing the academic research and practice of decision making, through a comprehensive illustration of the current status in this field and the highlighting of possible future directions. The present volume includes 30 papers divided in nine major parts: 1. Management information systems. 2. Education innovations and distance learning. 3. International business. 4. Marketing. 5. Finance and banking. 6. Optimization & decision making. 7. Multi-criteria decision analysis, aid & practice. 8. Decision support systems and information technology. 9. Health care planning & hospital operations. The first part of the book refers to recent contributions and impact of management information systems in the operation of corporate entities and organizations. Drury presents and discusses the results of a survey regarding the effectiveness of chargeback systems in achieving organization goals. Gefen also conducts a survey to examine the role of trust in consultants during the adoption of enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. The last paper of this part of the book, by Lamb and Smart reports on the development of a statistical information system which can be used to analyze heterogeneous databases on the web. The second part of the book includes two papers related to education innovations. The first paper by Dhir et al. introduces social judgment theory as a potentially useful theoretical and methodological basis for understanding subjectivity in academic administration. Barrett and Hort report the results of a study regarding the effects of organizational culture on the selection of new members in university organizations. The third part of the book includes two papers that deal with issues of major importance within the new globalized international business environment. Singh explores the role of political risk as a determining factor affecting foreign direct investments, while Nasierowski and Arcelus examine the impact of globalization of business practices on the policies dealing with the acquisition and development of countries' technological systems, offering a rating of 45 countries in that respect. Marketing is the major field of interest in the fourth part of the book. The paper of Baourakis et al. presents the results of a consumer-based market survey conducted in order to identify consumer behavior regarding greenhouse vegetables. Alexouda and Paparrizos describe a decision support system that addresses the seller's return problem during product line design, using genetic algorithms. The fifth part of the book contains a series of issues related to modem financial and banking management. Initially, Ghai et al. review the portfolio performance measures developed in the international literature, including both the well-known mean-variance measures as well as multi-factor measures. The paper of Kunsch et al. employs a systems

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