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Energy,ClimateandtheEnvironment SeriesEditor:DavidElliott,EmeritusProfessorofTechnologyPolicy, OpenUniversity,UK Titlesinclude: EspenMoe RENEWABLEENERGYTRANSFORMATIONORFOSSILFUELBACKLASH VestedInterestsinthePoliticalEconomy ManuelaAchillesandDanaElzey(editors) ENVIRONMENTALSUSTAINABILITYINTRANSATLANTICPERSPECTIVE AMultidisciplinaryApproach RobertAckrillandAdrianKay(editors) THEGROWTHOFBIOFUELSINTHE21STCENTURY PhilipAndrews-Speed THEGOVERNANCEOFENERGYINCHINA ImplicationsforFutureSustainability GawdatBahgat ALTERNATIVEENERGYINTHEMIDDLEEAST IanBaileyandHughCompston(editors) FEELINGTHEHEAT ThePoliticsofClimatePolicyinRapidlyIndustrializingCountries MehmetEfeBiresselioglu EUROPEANENERGYSECURITY Turkey’sFutureRoleandImpact JonasDreger THEEUROPEANCOMMISSION’SENERGYANDCLIMATEPOLICY AClimateforExpertise? BethEdmondsonandStuartLevy CLIMATECHANGEANDORDER TheEndofProsperityandDemocracy DavidElliott(editor) NUCLEARORNOT? DoesNuclearPowerHaveaPlaceinaSustainableFuture? NeilE.HarrisonandJohnMikler(editors) CLIMATEINNOVATION LiberalCapitalismandClimateChange AntonioMarquina(editor) GLOBALWARMINGANDCLIMATECHANGE ProspectsandPoliciesinAsiaandEurope EspenMoeandPaulMidford(editors) THEPOLITICALECONOMYOFRENEWABLEENERGYANDENERGYSECURITY CommonChallengesandNationalResponsesinJapan,Chinaand NorthernEurope MarlyneSahakian KEEPINGCOOLINSOUTHEASTASIA EnergyConsumptionandUrbanAir-Conditioning BenjaminK.Sovacool ENERGY&ETHICS JusticeandtheGlobalEnergyChallenge JosephSzarka,RichardCowell,GeraintEllis,PeterA.Strachanand CharlesWarren(editors) LEARNINGFROMWINDPOWER Governance,SocietalandPolicyPerspectivesonSustainableEnergy ThijsVandeGraaf THEPOLITICSANDINSTITUTIONSOFGLOBALENERGYGOVERNANCE XuYi-chong(editor) NUCLEARENERGYDEVELOPMENTINASIA ProblemsandProspects ClaireDupontandSebastianOberthür(editors) DECARBONIZATIONINTHEEUROPEANUNION InternalPoliciesandExternalStrategies Energy,ClimateandtheEnvironment SeriesStandingOrderISBN978–0–230–00800–7(hb)978–0–230–22150–5(pb) (outsideNorthAmericaonly) You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to usattheaddressbelowwithyournameandaddress,thetitleoftheseriesand theISBNsquotedabove. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke,HampshireRG216XS,UK. Decarbonization in the European Union Internal Policies and External Strategies Editedby Claire Dupont SeniorResearcher,InstituteforEuropeanStudies,VrijeUniversiteitBrussel,Belgium and Sebastian Oberthür AcademicDirector,InstituteforEuropeanStudies,VrijeUniversiteitBrussel,Belgium Editorialmatter,selection,introductionandconclusion©Claire DupontandSebastianOberthür2015 Individualchapters©Respectiveauthors2015 Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission. Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency, SaffronHouse,6–10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS. Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages. Theauthorshaveassertedtheirrightstobeidentifiedastheauthorsofthis workinaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988. Firstpublished2015by PALGRAVEMACMILLAN PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited, registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS. PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin’sPressLLC, 175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010. PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld. Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates, theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries. ISBN 978-1-349-68088-7 ISBN 978-1-137-40683-5 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-137-40683-5 Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe countryoforigin. AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. In memoriam Marc Pallemaerts This volume is dedicated to Marc Pallemaerts. It was in the middle of this project that the news of Marc’s sudden and unexpected death on 2 May 2014 reached us and left us in shock. We cannot possibly do justice here to Marc’s rich contribution to environmental law and policy in Belgium and internationally in scholarly, societal and polit- ical terms. For glimpses of his contribution, we refer the reader to a number of tributes that are already available, including http://www .klimaat.be/nl-be/news/20142/hommage-aan-marc-pallemaerts; http:// www.ieep.eu/about-us/in-memory-of-marc-pallemaerts/;http://www.om gevingsrecht.be/opinie/hommage-aan-marc-pallemaerts. Here, we wish topaytributetoMarc’sroleasarespectedcolleagueandcherishedfriend during the early years at the Institute for European Studies (IES), Vrije UniversiteitBrussel(VUB),andafterwards. Marc was among the very first staff of the IES, and he served as a Senior Research Fellow from 2002 to late 2005. As such, he helped set up and shape the Institute, including, in particular, its environ- mental arm that since has taken the form of the IES research clus- ter on Environment and Sustainable Development (http://www.ies.be/ research/EnvironmentandSustainableDevelopment).Hewasalsoinstru- mental in attracting the Institute’s first Academic Director (whom he encouraged to apply) and in framing the IES research strategy, valid to thepresentday,focusingonEuropeandtheEuropeanUnion(EU)inan internationalcontext. CollaborationcontinuedafterMarclefttheIEStobecomeaSeniorFel- low at the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP). He was the driving force behind the establishment of the joint IES–IEEP Envi- ronmental Policy Forum, which has since grown into one of the main event outlets of the Institute, the IES Policy Forum (http://www.ies.be/ events/policy-forums).Healsoremainedinvolvedinthesupervisionof severalIESPhDstudents.Theeditorsofthisbookfurthermorelookback atthefruitfulcooperationwithMarcontheverysuccessfulpublication oftheeditedvolumeTheNewClimatePoliciesoftheEuropeanUnion:Inter- nalLegislationandClimateDiplomacy(2010),whichitselfemanatedfrom cooperation on a lecture series on ‘The European Union and the Fight againstGlobalClimateChange’inautumn2008. Duringalltheseyears,wecherishedMarc’sunwaveringstraightforward- ness and his uncompromising dedication to core values, including the environment and human rights. By dedicating this book to him, we hope to contribute to keeping his memory and commitment alive. We are confident that he would have liked the analysis of this book, althoughittookmoretimetocompletethanhe,asitturnedout,had. Marc’scontributionandinfluencearestillfeltandappreciated,includ- ingattheIES.Wemisshimasacolleagueandfriend.Hewas,andwill remain, a strong source of inspiration and encouragement for many at theIESandbeyond. TheInstituteforEuropeanStudies,Brussels,February2015 BartDeSchutter SebastianOberthür ClaireDupont President AcademicDirector SeniorResearcher Contents ListofTablesandFigures ix SeriesEditor’sPreface xi Acknowledgements xiii NotesonContributors xiv ListofAcronymsandAbbreviations xvi 1 DecarbonizationintheEU:SettingtheScene 1 ClaireDupontandSebastianOberthür 2 TheEUInternalEnergyMarketandDecarbonization 25 RadostinaPrimova 3 ThePowerSector:PioneerandWorkhorseof Decarbonization 46 StefanLechtenböhmerandSaschaSamadi 4 ElectricityGrids:NoDecarbonizationwithout Infrastructure 70 ThomasSattich 5 DecarbonizingIndustryintheEU:Climate,Tradeand IndustrialPolicyStrategies 92 MaxÅhmanandLarsJ.Nilsson 6 Transport:AddictedtoOil 115 TomvanLierandCathyMacharis 7 Buildings:GoodIntentionsUnfulfilled 137 ElinLerumBoassonandClaireDupont 8 TheGeopoliticsoftheEU’sDecarbonizationStrategy: ABird’sEyePerspective 159 TomCasier 9 DecarbonizationandEURelationswiththeCaspianSea Region 180 ClaireDupont vii viii Contents 10 EvolutionsandRevolutionsinEU–RussiaEnergyRelations 201 OlgaKhrushchevaandTomasMaltby 11 EU–NorwayEnergyRelationstowards2050:FromFossil FuelstoLow-CarbonOpportunities? 222 TorbjørgJevnaker,LeivLundeandJonBirgerSkjærseth 12 Conclusions:LessonsLearned 244 ClaireDupontandSebastianOberthür Index 266 Tables and Figures Tables 3.1 ScenariostudiesoftheEuropeanenergyandelectricity systemto2050 48 7.1 SelectionofEUDirectivescontributingtoimproved energyperformanceofbuildings 139 8.1 Summaryoftheimpactofdecarbonizationontherole ofEUenergypartners 169 9.1 NaturalgasimportinginfrastructurecapacityinEUin 2012andexpectedcapacityin2022(measuredinbcm) 185 11.1 NorwegianEEAgrantsforenergyandclimate programmes2009–2014 227 11.2 NorwegiantranspositionoftheEUclimateandenergy packageandrelatedactsasofOctober2014 230 Figures 1.1 GHGemissionsintheEU-28andEU-15between1990 and2012 5 1.2 Progresstowards2020renewableandenergyefficiency targetsintheEU-28 6 1.3 EU-28GHGemissiontrajectorytoreachreductionof 80–95percentby2050 7 3.1 Changesinelectricitydemandfortraditionalandnew appliances,comparisonofscenariosfor2050,EU-27 50 3.2 Sharesofvarioussourcesofelectricityinmeeting Europeangrosselectricitydemandandsharesof fluctuatingrenewablesin2012(actual)andin2050 accordingtoscenarios 52 4.1 DevelopmentofdifferentenergycarriersintheEU-28 from2000to2012 71 4.2 Shareofintermittentandnon-intermittentrenewables intheEU-27(percentofallrenewable-generated electricity) 74 4.3 Calculatedperareagenerationofintermittentelectricity (solar,tidal,wind)(MWh/km2) 76 ix

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