Crossing Nuclear Thresholds

296 Pages·2018·3.409 MB·English

by  Jeannie L. Johnson, Kerry M. Kartchner, Marilyn J. Maines

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CROSSING NUCLEAR
THRESHOLDS
Leveraging Sociocultural Insights
into Nuclear Decisionmaking
. , .
Edited By JEANNIE L JOHNSON KERRY M
, .
KARTCHNER AND MARILYN J MAINES
Initiatives in Strategic Studies: Issues and Policies
Series Editor
James J. Wirtz
Department of National Security Affairs
Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, CA, USA
This important series on topical and timeless issues relating to strategy
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ing friends and opponents, using a variety of military tools in various ways,
including to deter or coerce other actors. Strategy deals with problems of
national policy and the nexus of political, diplomatic, psychological, eco-
nomic, cultural, historic and military affairs. Central to strategic studies is
an understanding of the environment, including increased comprehension
of other strategic actors.
More information about this series at
http://www.palgrave.com/gp/series/14854
Jeannie L. Johnson
Kerry M. Kartchner
Marilyn J. Maines
Editors
Crossing Nuclear
Thresholds
Leveraging Sociocultural Insights into Nuclear
Decisionmaking
Editors
Jeannie L. Johnson Kerry M. Kartchner
Department of Political Science Department of Political Science
Utah State University Brigham Young University
Logan, UT, USA Provo, UT, USA
Marilyn J. Maines
Center for Advanced Study of
Language
University of Maryland
College Park, MD, USA
Initiatives in Strategic Studies: Issues and Policies
ISBN 978-3-319-72669-4 ISBN 978-3-319-72670-0 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72670-0
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018936349
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018
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The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information
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tional affiliations.
Cover illustration: Lanmas / Alamy Stock Photo. The cover of this volume depicts a Roman
art threshold in mosaic cubes perspective from the 1st century AD. (National Roman
Museum, Palace Massimo; Rome, Italy). The editors of this volume selected this design in
representation of the complex steps and choices involved in crossing nuclear thresholds.
Printed on acid-free paper
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer
International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature.
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Jeannie dedicates this book to Steve, Benjamin, Sam, and Jess, who light up
her world and remind her what it is all about.
Kerry dedicates his modest contributions to this book to his Samoan brother,
Tracy William Kauaheahe Spencer, lifelong friend, companion, and role
model. His steadfast courage, selfless compassion, infectious humor, and
unwavering grace in the face of every twist and turn life has thrown at him
have been a source of strength and inspiration not only to me, but to our
mutual family members, and to Tracy’s many friends and extended
Samoan family as well.—Alofa tele.
Marilyn dedicates this book to husband David, children Sonya, Sasha, and
Bobby, and grandson Rene, in hope of a nuclear-free future. Having family
is what enables me to get up each morning and face new challenges and
inspires me to write and share ideas. Thank you for all the love and support
and all the joy you bring to my life.
P a
reface and cknowledgments
In the near- and medium-term future, the United States will face a wide
range of over-the-horizon nuclear challenges including ensuring state
adherence to the terms of existing nuclear treaties and nonproliferation
agreements; dealing with a menacing number of potential nuclear aspi-
rants seeking to join the nuclear club; engaging with friends and allies bent
on unilateral military action to protect regional nuclear monopolies; and
deterring increasingly alarming prospects of nuclear use. The case studies
included in this volume tackle a number of nuclear challenges—termed
“nuclear thresholds”—likely to be faced by the United States, its friends,
and allies, and identify the most promising points of leverage available to
American policymakers in confronting these threats.
Nuclear decisionmaking scholars have long recognized that nuclear
aspirations and planning are often instigated within elite circles, but once
put in motion come to fruition only through co-opting or keeping at bay
or circumventing key competing constituencies within domestic popula-
tions and critical and opposed foreign governments (whether ally or adver-
sary). A major premise of this volume is that for policymakers and analysts
to more accurately anticipate the likelihood of successful nuclear acquisi-
tion, or other critical nuclear decisions, identifying those key constituen-
cies within a polity of concern and assessing the internal socio-cultural
drivers which shape their thinking and decisionmaking on weapons of
mass destruction (WMD) issues is essential. Distilling leverage points
within the internal dynamics of those groups who may facilitate acquisi-
tion, or if properly motivated may act to oppose or constrain acquisition,
is key to understanding options that can be engaged by policymakers when
vii
viii PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
confronted with a leadership cadre bent on nuclear acquisition and norm
violation.
With decades of US engagement on WMD issues on display, the next
generation of WMD aspirants will likely hedge against traditional US
mechanisms for thwarting nuclear advances and potentially prepare to
absorb an anticipated level of sanctioning. US counterproliferation efforts
must become increasingly clever, tailored, and focused. Those efforts
require an analytical tool which yields a high degree of granularity con-
cerning salient rewards and effective coercive measures applied in some-
times starkly diverse contexts. The United States may find itself confronting
both an ally and a serious adversary seeking nuclear ownership within the
same time frame. Such a situation would render generic sanctioning
approaches difficult and likely counterproductive. These moments will
require an analytical approach designed to yield individualized solutions
with contours that fit each discrete situation with maximum impact.
Providing this policy-relevant analysis will require an intimate knowledge
of the national, sub-national, or transnational actor sets likely to weigh in,
or with the potential to weigh in, on a country’s WMD decisionmaking
and action.
This volume advances the strategic cultural research program we pre-
viously surveyed in a book titled Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass
Destruction: Culturally Based Insights into Comparative National
Security Policymaking, published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2009. The
present volume showcases insights made possible by rigorously applying
key elements of the cutting-edge socio-cultural model (Cultural
Topography Analytic Framework—CTAF) pioneered by our team. The
CTAF model draws from the research paradigm of strategic culture
employed in our earlier volume which was refined for use within the
intelligence community as well as by academicians and regional experts
seeking solutions to these nuclear challenges. Our authors employed the
basic principles of that model here with an eye toward isolating those
vectors of nuclear decisionmaking on which the United States might
exert influence within a foreign state. The US response will require strat-
egies tailored to the perception of threat experienced by the actors in
question, the value the actors place on their relationship with the United
States, and the domestic context driving decisionmaking. Our volume
offers a nuanced look at each actor’s identity, national norms, values,
and perceptual lens in order to offer culturally focused insights into
behavior and intentions. Additionally, each case study includes a set of
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENT S ix
recommendations specifically tailored for use with that actor. As long-
time regional experts, our authors offer an honest and often self-critical
assessment of what is likely to work within the US deterrence, assurance,
and dissuasion toolkit and what is not.
Given these considerations, this volume explicitly sets out to do the
following:
• To identify and consolidate recent developments in socio-cultural
modeling and analysis, especially those related to strategic cultural
analysis and country personality profiling;
• To develop and articulate terms of reference for validating and apply-
ing those analytical developments and scholarly research to the chal-
lenge of scoping emerging nuclear proliferation risks;
• To apply these new analytical frameworks to defining the emerging
nuclear proliferation landscape, with particular emphasis on identify-
ing target decisionmaking vectors and narratives in countries of
potential future nuclear proliferation concern, identified in this study
as WMD aspirants;
• To provide novel and innovative insights to communities seeking to
reduce WMD threats through deterrence, mitigation, and conse-
quence management, as well as through new arms control and non-
proliferation initiatives focused on those countries and leadership
cadres at greatest risk of crossing the nuclear threshold.
This volume targets three wide audiences: students and scholars of
international relations whose research and coursework touches on strate-
gic threats and nuclear decisionmaking, policymakers who must navigate
the precarious and complex nuclear arena, and the intelligence analysts
who must deliver timely new insights and hedge against surprise on the
world’s deadliest question.
To scholars interested in growing and refining methodologies within
the strategic culture paradigm, we offer novel treatment of the method-
ological conundrum that has long beset scholars of strategic culture and
introduce an approach certain to provoke discussion.
The editors wish to gratefully acknowledge the support and encourage-
ment provided by the Naval Postgraduate School’s Project on Advanced
Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction
(PASCC) via Assistance Grant No. N00244-15-1-0033 awarded by the
NAVSUP Fleet Logistics Center San Diego (NAVSUP FLC San Diego).
x PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The views expressed in written materials or publications, and/or made by
speakers, moderators, and presenters, in connection with the workshops
and other contributions to this project, do not necessarily reflect the offi-
cial policies of the Naval Postgraduate School nor does mention of trade
names, commercial practices, or organizations imply endorsement by the
US government.
Jeannie, Kerry, and Marilyn would also like to acknowledge the major
contribution to the preparation of this book by our friend, colleague, and
editorial assistant Briana Bowen. Without her ardent support, supreme
organizational skills, and keen editorial talents, this book would never
have reached publication. We are so proud of Briana’s recent graduation
from Oxford and are happy she has returned to our team. We expect to see
Briana make significant contributions to, among other things, the emerg-
ing generation of strategic culture scholarship.
We would also like to acknowledge the Center for Advanced Study of
Language at University of Maryland for supporting research on the
Cultural Topography Analytic Framework as well as its predecessor ver-
sion, the Cultural Analytic Framework. Many thanks to colleagues and
codevelopers of the CAF, Joe Danks, John Walker, Kathy Faleris, and
Anne Wright and to CASL research director Mike Bunting.
Logan, UT Jeannie L. Johnson
Provo, UT Kerry M. Kartchner
College Park, MD Marilyn J. Maines