Critical Energy Issues In Asia And The Pacific: The Next Twenty Years

331 Pages·28.609 MB·English

by  Toufiq A. Siddiqi

Critical Energy Issues
in Asia and the Pacific
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A Westview Special Study
Critical Energy Issues in Asia and the Pacific:
The Next Twenty Years
Fereidun Fesharaki, Harrison Brown, Corazon M. Siddayao,
Toufiq A. Siddiqi, Kirk R. Smith, and Kim Woodard
Confronting the critical energy issues that face both the de-
veloping and the industrial nations of Asia and the Pacific, the
authors of this book discuss the changing political and economic sit-
uations in the region and the various implications of those changes.
The topics addressed include the problems of access to crude oil, the
price of crude, the historical dependence of the region on the major
oil exporters, and the impact of oil prices on the foreign exchange
earnings and foreign debt situation of the region's developing
nations.
Nuclear power development and the environmental aspects of
energy policies in the area are discussed in some detail, as are
China's external energy relations and their regional importance. The
book concludes with a chapter on the energy options open to the
nations of Asia and the Pacific, suggesting that, given the economic,
technical, political, and security considerations raised in the pre-
ceding chapters, cooperative programs may be the only way to ensure
access to petroleum in the future.
Fereidun Fesharaki is a research associate at the East-West
Resource Systems Institute in Honolulu and a consultant on energy.
Previously he was energy advisor to the prime minister of Iran,
1977-1978, and research fellow of the Institute for International
Political and Economic Studies in Tehran, 1975-1978. Harrison Brown,
Corazon N. Siddayao, Toufiq A. Siddiqi, Kirl~ R. Smith, and KID
Woodard are also at the East-West Center.
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Taylor & Francis
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Taylor & Francis Group
http:// taylorandfra ncis.co m
Critical Energy Issues
in Asia and the Pacific
The Next Twenty Years
Fereidun Fesharaki, Harrison Brown,
Corazon M. Siddayao, Toufiq A. Siddiqi,
Kirk R. Smith, and Kim Woodard
ENERGY PROJECT,
EAST-WEST RESOURCE SYSTEMS INSTITUTE
First published 1982 by Westview Press
Published 2018 by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright © 1982 by the East-West Center
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in
any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter
invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are
used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 82-70360
ISBN 13: 978-0-367-01897-9 (hbk)
Contents
List of Tables and Figures ix
Foreword
Mohammad Sadli xiii
Preface
Fereidun Fesharaki xv
INTRODUCTION: SHIFTING REGIONAL AND GLOBAL RELATIONSHIPS
Harrison Brown
The New Set of Global Relationships
The lOots of the crisis 12
The Asia-Pacific Region 15
2 FUTURE SUPPLIES OF PETROLEUM: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
Fereidun Fesharaki 23
The Oil Market of the 1970s 23
Future w:>r ld Oil Balance • • 24
Market Structure and Export Strategy 38
Oil Prices ••• 41
Implications fur the Asia-Pacific Countries 44
The Future Outlook • 53
Conclusion • • • • • 60
3 ENERGY DEMAND AND RISING OIL PRICES: ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
Corazon M. Siddayao • 65
Introduction • • • • • • 65
Demand fur Energy and the Economy 65
Oil Dependency and Potential Availability 77
Energy Demand Constraints fur NOILDCs 93
Conclusion: Agenda fur the Future 108
vii
viii
4 NUCLEAR POWER IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
Kirk R. Smith • • 125
Asia's Nuclear History • • • •• 125
Nuclear Power Plants in Asia: Present and Projected 128
Fuel Cycle • • • 155
Breeder Reactors • 164
Pro liferation 166
Conclusion • • • 173
5 CHINA IN ASIA'S ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
Kim \i)Odard • 183
Introduction • • • • • • • • 183
The Politics of Energy Development 187
Energy Resources • • • • • • • • • • •• 191
Alternative Energy Resources • • • • 197
Growth O:mstraints and Energy Conservation • 202
Energy Cotnm:>dity Exp>rts and Offsoore Development 206
China and Energy Development in the
Asia-Pacific Region •••••••••• 215
6 ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS
Toufiq A. Siddiqi • 227
Links between Energy Use and Environmental Quality 227
Significant Environmental Implications of Some
Energy Programs in the Asia-Pacific Region • • • • 229
Government Responses to Energy-Environment Concerns
in the Asia-Pacific Region 251
Conclusion • • . . • • . . • . • • • • . • • • 268
7 ENERGY IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
Kirk R. Smith, Harrison Brown, Fereidun Fesharaki,
Corazon M. Siddayao, and Toufiq A. Siddiqi ••••• 273
Energy and Economic Development 275
Energy and Environmental Quality 279
Energy and Social Equity • • • 282
Energy and Natural Resources ••• 284
Energy and Security • • • • • • 290
Energy and Government Policymaking • 294
About the Autoors 299
Index 301
Tables and Figures
1. 1 Country Groupings, 1978 • • • • • • • • • • • • • 4
1 .2 Shares of Net War Id Trade in Commercial Energy,
1977-1980 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • 5
1.3 Selected Statistics for the Asia-Pacific Region 17
2.1 Noncommunist World's Oil Balance • • • • • • 26
2.2 Projections of OPEC Production and Exp>rts 28
2.3 Present and Future Exp>rt Potential of Major
Non-OPEC Oil Producers • • • • • • • • • 33
2.4 Present and Future Petroleum Potential of
Developing Asia-Pacific Countries • • • 36
2.5 Large Oil Imp>rters of the Asia-Pacific Region 38
2.6 Structural Changes in the World Petroleum Market 40
2.7 OPEC Oil Price Scenarios in the 1980s • • • • • 45
2.8 Developing Asia-Pacific Countries' Imp>rts of
Crude Oil, by Source ••••••••••• 46
2.9 Developing Asia-Pacific Countries' Imp>rts of
Crude Oil from the Middle East • • • • • • • 48
2.10 Developed Asia-Pacific Countries' Imp>rts of
Crude Oil by Source 51
2.11 Developed Asia-Pacific Countries' Oil Imp>rts
from the Middle East 52
2.12 Consumption of Petroleum Products • • ••••••• 57
2.13 Net Imp>rts of Petroleum Products ••••••••• 58
3.1 Asia: Energy End-Use Structure •• 67
3.2 Energy/GDP Ratios £Or the Asia-Pacific Region • 70
3.3 Estimates of Income and Price Elasticities
for the Asia-Pacific Region • • • • • • • • 73
3.4 Asia-Pacific Patterns of Commercial Energy
Consumption, 1970, 1978, 1979 •••••••••••• 78
3.5 Asia-Pacific Commercial Energy Consumption
Growth Rates, 1970-1978 ••••••••• 79
3.6 Asia-Pacific Consumption of Gasoline and Fuel
Oils, 1970 , 1978 (Selected Countries) • • 82
3.7 Asia-Pacific Liquid Fuels Consumption, 1978 • 85
ix