Criminal Careers and ''Career Criminals,'': Volume II

417 Pages·1986·2.89 MB·English

by  Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, Jeffrey A. Roth, Christy A. Visher

i
CRIMINAL CAREERS AND
“CAREER CRIMINALS”
Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, Jeffrey A. Roth, and Christy A. Visher, editors
Panel on Research on Criminal Careers
Committee on Research on Law Enforcement and the Administration of Justice
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1986
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ii
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bers are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee con-
sisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science
and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accor-
dance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the
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This project was sponsored by the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice, under Contract No. 83-IJ-CX-0010. The con-
tents do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the grantor agency.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Criminal careers and “career criminals.”
Bibliography: v. 1, p.
Includes index.
1. Crime analysis—United States. 2. Crime and criminals—United States. 3. Criminal behavior, Prediction of. I. Blumstein, Alfred. II.
National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Research on Criminal Careers.
HV7936.C88C75 1986 364.3′0973 86-18282
ISBN 0-309-03684-4 (v. 1)
ISBN 0-309-03683-6 (v. 2)
Printed in the United States of America
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
The National Academy Press was created by the National Academy of Sciences to publish the reports
issued by the Academy and by the National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the
National Research Council, all operating under the charter granted to the National Academy of Sciences
by the Congress of the United States.
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iii
Panel on Research on Criminal Careers
ALFRED BLUMSTEIN (Chair), School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon University
ALLEN H. ANDREWS, JR., Superintendent of Police, City of Peoria, Illinois
DELBERT S. ELLIOTT, Department of Sociology and Behavioral Research Institute, University of Colorado
DAVID P. FARRINGTON, Institute of Criminology, Cambridge University, England
JOHN KAPLAN, School of Law, Stanford University
ROLF LOEBER, Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinic, University of Pittsburgh
CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin
NORVAL MORRIS, School of Law, University of Chicago
ALBERT J. REISS, JR., Department of Sociology, Yale University
LEE ROBINS, Washington University Medical School, St. Louis, Missouri
HAROLD ROSE, Department of Urban Affairs, University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee
DANIEL S. SMITH, Department of History, University of Illinois at Chicago
ANDREW L. SONNER, State's Attorney for Montgomery County, Maryland
REGGIE B. WALTON, Associate Judge, Superior Court of the District of Columbia
JAMES Q. WILSON, Department of Government, Harvard University, and Graduate School of Management,
University of California at Los Angeles
MARVIN E. WOLFGANG, Sellin Center for Studies in Criminology and Criminal Law, University of
Pennsylvania
JEFFREY A. ROTH, Study Director
CHRISTY A. VISHER, Research Associate
GAYLENE J. DUMOUCHEL, Administrative Secretary
JACQUELINE COHEN, Consultant, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon University
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iv
Committee on Research on Law Enforcement and the Administration of Justice
NORVAL MORRIS (Chair), School of Law, University of Chicago
RICHARD LEMPERT (Vice Chair), School of Law, University of Michigan
ANTHONY V. BOUZA, Chief of Police, Minneapolis, Minnesota
JONATHAN D. CASPER, Department of Political Science, Northwestern University, and American Bar
Foundation, Chicago, Illinois
SHARI S. DIAMOND, Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Chicago, and Sidley and Austin,
Chicago, Illinois
JAMES LOWELL GIBBS, JR., DuBois Institute, Harvard University
JOSEPH KADANE, Department of Statistics, Carnegie-Mellon University
CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin
ALBERT J. REISS, JR., Department of Sociology, Yale University
JAMES F. SHORT, JR., Social Research Center, Washington State University
PATRICIA MCGOWAN WALD, Judge, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit
STANTON WHEELER, Amateur Athletic Foundation of Los Angeles, on leave from School of Law, Yale
University
JAMES Q. WILSON, Department of Government, Harvard University, and Graduate School of Management,
University of California, Los Angeles
ALFRED BLUMSTEIN (ex officio), Chair, Panel on Research on Criminal Careers
SAMUEL KRISLOV (ex officio), Cochair, Panel on Statistical Assessment as Evidence in the Courts
ANN WITTE (ex officio), Chair, Panel on Taxpayer Compliance Research
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CONTENTS v
Contents
CONTENTS, VOLUME I vi
PREFACE vii
1 ISSUES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF CRIMINAL CAREERS 1
Joseph G. Weis
2 THE IMPACT OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE ON CRIMINAL CAREERS 52
Eric D. Wish and Bruce D. Johnson
3 THE RELATIONSHIP OF PROBLEM DRINKING TO INDIVIDUAL OFFENDING SEQUENCES 89
James J. Collins
4 CO-OFFENDER INFLUENCES ON CRIMINAL CAREERS 121
Albert J. Reiss, Jr.
5 THE RAND INMATE SURVEY: A REANALYSIS 161
Christy A. Visher
6 ACCURACY OF PREDICTION MODELS 212
Stephen D. Gottfredson and Don M. Gottfredson
7 SOME METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN MAKING PREDICTIONS 291
John B. Copas and Roger Tarling
8 PURBLIND JUSTICE: NORMATIVE ISSUES IN THE USE OF PREDICTION IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM 314
Mark H. Moore
9 DYNAMIC MODELS OF CRIMINAL CAREERS 356
Christopher Flinn
10 RANDOM PARAMETER STOCHASTIC -PROCESS MODELS OF CRIMINAL CAREERS 380
John P. Lehoczky
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CONTENTS, VOLUME I vi
Contents, Volume I
SUMMARY
1 INTRODUCTION: STUDYING CRIMINAL CAREERS
2 PARTICIPATION IN CRIMINAL CAREERS
3 DIMENSIONS OF ACTIVE CRIMINAL CAREERS
4 METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN CRIMINAL CAREER RESEARCH
5 CRIME CONTROL STRATEGIES USING CRIMINAL CAREER KNOWLEDGE
6 USE OF CRIMINAL CAREER INFORMATION IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE DECISION MAKING
7 AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
APPENDICES
A PARTICIPATION IN CRIMINAL CAREERS
Christy A. Visher and Jeffrey A. Roth
B RESEARCH ON CRIMINAL CAREERS: INDIVIDUAL FREQUENCY RATES AND OFFENSE SERIOUSNESS
Jacqueline Cohen
C WORKSHOP ON RESEARCH ON CRIMINAL CAREERS: PROGRAM AND PARTICIPANTS
D BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES, PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF
REFERENCES
INDEX
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PREFACE vii
Preface
In 1983, when the Panel on Research on Criminal Careers was convened, the U.S. prison population had
experienced a rapid growth—more than doubling from 196,000 in 1972 to 437,000 in 1983—and the crime rate
had just passed its 1980 peak of 13 million reported index crimes, or almost 6,000 crimes per 100,000
population. There was strong policy interest in finding alternatives to rapidly escalating imprisonment costs and
what was perceived as relatively ineffective crime control.
One approach that was widely considered was to direct attention at “career criminals,” high-rate or long-
duration offenders who contribute most to total crime rates. Research at the Rand Corporation had highlighted
the extreme variability in individual rates of riminal activity: in surveys of prisoners, the worst 10 percent of
offenders reported committing more than 50 robberies or 200 burglaries per year, but half the prisoners reported
committing fewer than 5 burglaries or robberies per year. This extreme variation enhanced the appeal of being
able to distinguish high-rate from low-rate offenders. To this end, a number of prediction scales have been
proposed to distinguish the high-rate offenders from the more numerous ordinary offenders.
Any prediction of an individual's future offending must draw on research on criminal careers, the
characterization of the sequence of individual criminal activity: initiation of criminal activity, variation over the
career in the frequency of offending and in the kinds of crimes committed, and, finally, termination of criminal
activity. Any attempt to identify the career criminals in a population requires examination of the criminal
careers of all offenders to find the characteristics that distinguish the most serious offenders: those having the
longest remaining careers, the highest frequencies of offending, and committing the most serious kinds of
offenses.
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PREFACE viii
The panel was convened to evaluate the feasibility of predicting the future course of criminal careers, to
assess the effects of prediction instruments in reducing crime through incapacitation (usually by incarceration),
and to review the contribution of research on criminal careers to the development of fundamental knowledge
about crime and criminals. Ultimately, such knowledge is necessary for understanding the dimensions of the
crime problem, for isolating factors that contribute to criminality, and for developing effective crime control
strategies. In particular, many commonly held perceptions of correlates of crime that derive from aggregate or
macroanalysis do not hold at the individual or micro level. As knowledge about criminal careers develops, the
insights into individual offending that emerge will certainly stimulate refinements to criminological theory. They
will also lead to improved criminal justice decisions, both by drawing attention to some variables that are not
adequately appreciated and by directing attention away from other variables that are incorrectly perceived as
important. Criminal career information is also necessary for estimating the effects of changes in incarceration
policy on crime and on prison populations.
In reviewing the scientific evidence on criminal careers, the panel members were in general agreement
about the findings and conclusions, but there were, however, divergent views on the ethics of how such
information should be used in dealing with offenders. At one end of a spectrum is the view that no actions taken
by the criminal justice system should take any account of individual differences in anticipated future offending;
from this perspective, any use of predictive information would be objectionable. At the other end of the spectrum
is a desire to see even weak results put to use as quickly as possible; advocates of this position point to the
shortcomings of current decisions and emphasize that any contribution could improve the quality of decisions
and thereby reduce crime. In the middle, most panel members view prediction of future offending as a legitimate
consideration in criminal justice decisions, particularly since it is currently being done implicitly at some level in
practice. This view also maintains, however, that the role of prediction must be rigorously constrained and, in
particular, that it not result in punishments or restraints that are unjust in terms of the offense committed.
Although the panel viewed the making of pronouncements on ethical issues as outside its role, we did devote
considerable attention to ethical considerations to be sure that our conclusions were sensitive to them. The
scientific concern that is central to the panel's role is that any use of prediction be based on correct information
intelligently used. We found a number of instances in which prediction rules were naively generated, with poor
methods, or violated fundamental tenets of validity testing. Thus, it became important to call attention to more
appropriate methods and to identify useful information—both information that contributes to identifying career
criminals as well as information that is frequently used but should not be used.
Many aspects of the work of the panel can be viewed as a follow-up to earlier
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PREFACE ix
work by the Panel on Research on Deterrent and Incapacitative Effects, whose report was published in 1978.
That report noted that any assessment of incapacitative effects or improvement of them was severely
handicapped by the paucity of substantive research findings on individual offending patterns that could
contribute to estimates of the magnitude of incapacitative effects. That panel thus recommended that priority be
assigned to research on criminal careers and that “the most immediate empirical investigation should be directed
at estimating the individual crime rate and the length of a criminal career.”
Pursuit of these issues has been a major feature of the Crime Control Theory Research Program of the
National Institute of Justice, directed by Richard Linster and Joel Garner. It is always disappointing to find that
knowledge does not accumulate as fast as one would like and that the measurements of those criminal career
parameters are still short of definitive. In the context of the earlier review, however, it is impressive how much
additional research has accumulated that provides internally consistent measurement of the key dimensions of
criminal careers and of their relationships to other relevant variables.
Criminal justice is a field of social science research that is heavily beset by ideological considerations. In
such a setting, any individual study is properly met with some skepticism and concern about the author's
particular ideological bent and the degree to which that perspective may have had an excessive influence in
shaping the results. A panel such as this one, which brings together individuals with a full array of the requisite
disciplinary perspectives and technical skills, and with a diversity of ideological stances, thus represents an
important vehicle for assessing the current evidence in the field and for identifying promising research directions.
Given its charge to assess the evidence on criminal careers and to point to future research directions, the
panel pursued two intensive efforts. First, the panel's staff reviewed the relevant literature, and these reviews are
included as appendices in Volume I: Appendix A by Christy Visher and Jeffrey Roth reviews the literature on
participation in criminal careers; Appendix B by Jacqueline Cohen reviews the literature on the individual
frequency of offending and on the mix of offense types by active offenders.
Second, the panel commissioned a number of papers that were presented and discussed at a workshop in
Woods Hole, Massachusetts, on July 23–25, 1984 (see Appendix C in Volume I for the program and list of
participants). Several of the papers review major bodies of literature: on prediction and its uses (by Stephen and
Don Gottfredson); on the influence on criminal careers of alcohol (by James Collins) and of drugs (by Eric Wish
and Bruce Johnson); and on group patterns in offending (by Albert J. Reiss). Because of the considerable interest
generated by the Rand Second Inmate Survey, the panel also asked Christy Visher to undertake a reanalysis of
the data from that survey. Two commissioned papers, one by Joseph Weis and another by John Copas and Roger
Tarling, address methodological and measurement issues; a paper by
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