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Richard Timothy Coupe · Barak Ariel · Katrin Mueller-Johnson Editors Crime Solvability Factors Police Resources and Crime Detection Crime Solvability Factors Richard Timothy Coupe (cid:129) Barak Ariel Katrin Mueller-Johnson (cid:129) Editors Crime Solvability Factors Police Resources and Crime Detection 123 Editors Richard TimothyCoupe Barak Ariel Institute of Criminology Institute of Criminology University of Cambridge University of Cambridge Cambridge, UK Cambridge, UK Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law Katrin Mueller-Johnson TheHebrew University Institute of Criminology Mount Scopus, Jerusalem,Israel University of Cambridge Cambridge, UK ISBN978-3-030-17159-9 ISBN978-3-030-17160-5 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-17160-5 ©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2019 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. 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ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Contents Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Richard Timothy Coupe, Barak Ariel and Katrin Mueller-Johnson Existing Research on Solvability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Tom Olphin and Richard Timothy Coupe Assessing Solvability Factors in Greater Manchester, England: The Case of Residential Burglaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Patrick Gerard Donnellan and Barak Ariel Population-Level Analysis of Residential Burglaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Colin Paine and Barak Ariel Solvability Indicators for ‘First Officers’: Targeting Eyewitness Questioning at Non-residential Burglaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Richard Timothy Coupe Pickpocketing on Railways. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Stephanie Sharp and Richard Timothy Coupe Metal Theft Solvability and Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Paul Robb, Richard Timothy Coupe and Barak Ariel Detecting and Combating Internet Telephony Fraud. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Colin Duffy and Richard Timothy Coupe Targeting Factors that Predict Clearance of Non-domestic Assaults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Tom Olphin and Katrin Mueller-Johnson Solvability Factors and Investigative Strategy for Faith Hate Crime: Anti-SemiticandIslamophobicAssault,CriminalDamageand Public Order Offences in London . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 Simon Rose, Richard Timothy Coupe and Barak Ariel v vi Contents Reporting, Detection and Solvability of Sex Offences on Railways. . . . . 225 Anthony Jones, Richard Timothy Coupe and Katrin Mueller-Johnson Offender–Offence Profiling: Improving Burglary Solvability and Detection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 Bronwyn Killmier, Katrin Mueller-Johnson and Richard Timothy Coupe Boosting Offence Solvability and Detections: Solving Residential Burglaries by Predicting Single and Multiple Repeats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 Richard Timothy Coupe and Katrin Mueller-Johnson Improving Offence Solvability and Detection Rates at Non-residential Burglary: Predicting Single and Multiple Repeat Incidence. . . . . . . . . . 305 Richard Timothy Coupe and Katrin Mueller-Johnson Homicide Resources, Solvability and Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 Rebecca Riggs, Richard Timothy Coupe and Denis O’Connor Investigative Activities, Resources and Burglary Detection . . . . . . . . . . 367 Richard Timothy Coupe TheOrganisationandDeploymentofPatrolResources:Cost-Effective On-Scene Arrest at Burglaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391 Richard Timothy Coupe Resources, Solvability and Detection: A Theoretical Model . . . . . . . . . . 411 Richard Timothy Coupe Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433 Richard Timothy Coupe and Barak Ariel Index .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... 451 Contributors Barak Ariel Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England, UK; Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, Israel; Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law, The Hebrew University, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem, Israel Richard Timothy Coupe Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England, UK Patrick Gerard Donnellan Greater Manchester Police, Manchester, UK Colin Duffy iNet Telecom Ltd. (Voipfone), London, UK Anthony Jones Metropolitan Police, Westminster, UK Bronwyn Killmier Formerly of South Australia Police, Adelaide, SA, Australia Katrin Mueller-Johnson Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England, UK Denis O’Connor Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England, UK Tom Olphin Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England, UK Colin Paine Thames Valley Police, London, UK Rebecca Riggs Metropolitan Police, London, UK Paul Robb Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK Simon Rose Metropolitan Police Service, London, UK; Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England, UK Stephanie Sharp British Transport Police, London, UK vii Introduction RichardTimothyCoupe,BarakArielandKatrinMueller-Johnson Effective and efficient crime investigation and detection complement preventive approaches in containing criminal activity. A good record on detecting crime is importantformaintainingpublicconfidenceinpolicingservices,sincevictimsand othercitizensexpectculpritstobebroughttojustice.Policingprovidesdeterrence throughtheoffender’sfearofbeingcaught(vonHirschetal.1999)—thesamethreat thatunderliespreventionviaguardianshiporguardianshipobjects,muchofwhichis alignedwithroutineactivitytheory(CohenandFelson1979).Evenwithexistinglev- elsofcrimeinvestigationanddetectionincombinationwithpreventiveapproaches, crimesofalltypes—property,violentandsexual—persistinsubstantialquantitiesin manydevelopedcountries,notleastinAustraliaandtheUK,wheremostoftheevi- dencepresentedinthisvolumeoriginates.Preventiveapproachesappearunlikelyto becapableofcombatingoffendingalonewithouteffectivepolicecapacitytodetect crime.Cost-effectivecrimeinvestigationanddetectionisnotmerelyimportant;itis anindispensablepartofanycrimereductionstrategy,bothdirectlyintermsofthe arrestandrehabilitationofcriminalsandindirectlythroughdeterrenceandenhancing perceptionsofpoliceprofessionalismandlegitimacy. Successfulcrimedetectionrequiresanunderstandingofwhichoffencesitispos- sibleandnotpossibletosolvesothatinvestigativeresourcesmaybeusedtogood purposeandwastedeffortreducedtoaminimum.Whethercrimescanbedetected and how easily they may be detected depends on offence solvability—how easily theymaybesolvedandwhetheritispossibletosolvethem.Crimespossesschar- acteristicsthatmakethemmoreorlesssolvable(Eck1983;BrandlandFrank1994; GreenwoodandPetersilia1975),sothatcost-effectivedetectionrequiresinformed decisionsaboutwhichcasesoughttobeprioritisedandwhichinvestigativeactivities oughttohavepoliceresourcesallocatedtothem.Hence,crimedetectiondependson B R.T.Coupe( )·B.Ariel·K.Mueller-Johnson InstituteofCriminology,UniversityofCambridge,Cambridge,England,UK e-mail:[email protected] B.Ariel InstituteofCriminology,FacultyofLaw,TheHebrewUniversityofJerusalem,Rehovot,Israel ©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2019 1 R.T.Coupeetal.(eds.),CrimeSolvabilityFactors, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-17160-5_1 2 R.T.Coupeetal. offence solvability and properly resourced investigations (Coupe 2016). Realising thepotentialforsolvingcrimesdependsonprovidingsufficientresourcestomeetthe investigativerequirementsofthosecrimesthatcanbesolved.Investigativerequire- mentsreflectincidentsolvabilitycharacteristics,andresources‘unlock’theevidence linkedtosolvabilitythatresultsinincidentdetection(Coupe2016).Thealignment of resources with incident solvability therefore enables cost-effective crime detection.Thisvolumeconsiderstheissuesofwhichcharacteristicsofdifferenttypesof crimehelppredictthecasesthatmaybedetected,whichinvestigativeactivitiesare mostlikelytoresultinpositiveoutcomesand,hence,theprioritisationofcasesfor investigativeeffort. Theprincipalaimofresearchintocrimesolvabilityistodeterminetheincident characteristics that are associated with arrest, charge, detection, or case clearance, allofwhichindicatethatanoffenderhasbeenidentifiedandcaught.Inpredicting which incidents are most and least likely to be detected, solvability factors help informcasescreeningandresourceallocationdecisions.Currently,crimescreening to select subsets of promising cases for activities at crime scenes and detectives’ further investigations is based principally on officer experience (Robb et al. 2015; RobinsonandTilley2009).Practicalexperiencealsoguidesdecisionsaboutwhether or not a rapid patrol response would be beneficial (Coupe and Blake 2005). The findings presented in these chapters indicate that police officers’ decisions about whichcasestoinvestigateandwhichparticularactivitiestoresourcewouldbemore accurateandcost-effectiveifinformedbyscientificmeasurement.Atpresent,there arefewpublishedsolvabilitystudies,particularlythosemeasuringhowtheresourcing ofoffencesofvaryingsolvabilityaffectsdetectionoutcomes. Thisbookaimstoaddresstheseshortcomingsbypresentingfindingsfromavari- etyofappliedsolvabilitystudieswithhigh-qualitypolicedatalinkingoffencesolv- abilityfactorstodetectionoutcomes.Itspurposeistohelppractitionersappreciate thebenefitsofcomplementingexperiencewithascientificallymeasuredapproachto investigatingandsolvingdifferenttypesofcrime.Italsopromisestoimproveschol- arship in incident solvability, a little-studied aspect of criminology. By examining thesolvabilitycharacteristicsofdifferentoffencesandthewaysinwhichtheyrelate to detection outcomes, the following chapters provide insights into how resources shouldbeappliedtopoliceactivitiesforsolvingproperty,violentandsexualoffences, howsolvabilityanddetectionsmightbeimproved,andthewaysinwhichsolvability variesacrossjurisdictions. In examining the solvability factors for property and violent crime, the volume’s chapters examine the potential for detecting different types of offence, the solvability factors around which officers build investigations, and the factors that are key to solving different crimes. One aim of solvability research is to inform ‘first officers’ and detectives about cost-effective crime screening and related resourceallocationdecisions.Thevolumeincludeschaptersonthesolvabilityand detectionofpropertyoffences(Chapters“Population-LevelAnalysisofResidential Burglaries”–“Detecting and Combating Internet Telephony Fraud”) and violent, sexualandfaithhatecrimes(Chapters“TargetingFactorsthatPredictClearanceof Non-domesticAssaults”–“Reporting,DetectionandSolvabilityofSexOffenceson Introduction 3 Railways”).Therearechapters(“HomicideResources,SolvabilityandDetection”, “Investigative Activities, Resources and Burglary Detection” and “The Organi- sation and Deployment of Patrol Resources: Cost-Effective On-Scene Arrest at Burglaries”) that consider incident solvability and the measured use of resources in different investigative stages, including patrol response, so that their relative effects on detection outcomes may be understood. The volume includes studies of less serious, high-volume crimes, such as pickpocketing (Chapter “Pickpocketing on Railways”), as well as more serious offences, including homicide (Chapter “Homicide Resources, Solvability and Detection”). A number of studies cover the solvabilityanddetectionofcrimes,includingoffenceswithavarietyofseriousness, suchasfaithhatecrime(Chapter“SolvabilityFactorsandInvestigativeStrategyfor Faith Hate Crime: Anti-semitic and Islamophobic Assault, Criminal Damage and PublicOrderOffencesinLondon”),non-domesticassaults(Chapter“TargetingFac- torsthatPredictClearanceofNon-domesticAssaults”)andsexualoffences(Chapter “Reporting, Detection and Solvability of Sex Offences on Railways”). Offence solvability can change or be changed with the development of new technologies; thus,somechaptersdescribeempiricalstudiesofthepotentialtoimproveincident solvabilitybyusingoffender–offenceprofilingapproaches(Chapter“Offender–Of- fenceProfiling:ImprovingBurglarySolvabilityandDetection”)andbypredicting repeat victimisation and harnessing security devices to entrap offenders (Chapters “Boosting Offence Solvability and Detections: Solving Residential Burglaries by Predicting Single and Multiple Repeats” and “Improving Offence Solvability and DetectionRatesatNon-residentialBurglary:PredictingSingleandMultipleRepeat Incidence”). Chapter “Detecting and Combating Internet Telephony Fraud”, on telephone fraud, illustrates the difficulties in combating electronic internet-based offending in circumstances where there is initial reliance on electronic clues and physicalseparationofoffendersfromvictimsorvictims’property. ChangeinDetectionRates Detectionrateshavedroppedsincethemid-1990sdespiteadeclineintotalcrimeinci- dence(BlumsteinandWallman2000),whichmighthavebeenexpectedtoimprove officer resources per offence. While accurate recording has played a role in this, moreactivitieshavebeencriminalised,andtherehavebeenshiftsincrimetypesand increasesinthereportingofcertainoffences.Thecriminalisationofcertaintypesof pornographyandracialandfaithhatecrime,andtheelevatedreportingofdomestic violenceandsexualoffences,canconsumeofficerresources—themoresothatthe policefeelobliged,oftenrightly,toinvestigatethem,giveneithertheirimmediacy orbecauseofthereputationalrisksoffailingtoaddressthem.Racialandfaithhate crimeincidencehasrisenastheseoffencesareviewedmoreseriouslyandcontinuing migration to global cities situates more ethnically disparate and sometimes antag- onistic groups in close proximity (Stavisky 2018). Where victims may designate offences as involving racial or faith hatred, as in England and Wales, increases in