Crime Science

242 Pages·2013·4.331 MB·English

by  Smith, Melissa J., Tilley, Nick

Crime Science
New approaches to preventing
and detecting crime
MELISSA J. SMITH
WILLAN
PUBLISHING AND NICK TILLEY
Crime Science

Crime Science
New approaches to preventing and
detecting crime
edited by
Melissa J. Smith and Nick Tilley
0
WILLAN
PUBLISHING
Published by
Willan Publishing
Culmcott House
Mill Street, Uffculme
Cullompton, Devon
EX15 3AT, UK
Tel: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
e-mail: [email protected]
website: www.willanpublishing.co.uk
Published simultaneously in the USA and Canada by
Willan Publishing
c/o ISBS, 920 NE 58th Ave, Suite 300,
Portland, Oregon 97213-3786, USA
Tel: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
e-mail: [email protected]
website: www.isbs.com
© 2005 the editors and contributors
The rights of the editors and contributors to be identified as the author of this book have
been asserted by her in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act of 1988.
All rights reserved; no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the Publishers or a licence
permitting copying in the UK issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, 90
Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 9HE.
First published 2005
ISBN 1-84392-089-1 (paperback)
1-84392-090-5 (cased)
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Typeset by GCS, Leighton Buzzard, Bedfordshire, LU7 1AR
Project managed by Deer Park Productions, Tavistock, Devon
Printed and bound by T.J. International Ltd, Trecerus Industrial Estate, Padstow, Cornwall
Contents
Figures and tables
Notes on contributors
Introduction
Melissa J. Smith and Nick Tilley
Part 1: Background
1 Defining crime science
Gloria Laycock
Part 2: Theory and Methodology
2 How to police the future: scanning for scientific
and technological innovations which generate potential
threats and opportunities in crime, policing and crime
reduction 27
Paul Ekblom
3 Cost-benefit analysis for crime science: making cost-benefit
analysis useful through a portfolio of outcomes 56
Graham Farrell, Kate /. Bowers and Shane D. Johnson
Crime Science
Part 3: Case Studies in Preventive Crime Science
4 Reducing prison disorder through situational
prevention: the Glen Parva experience 85
Richard Wortley and Lucia Summers
5 Driving down crime at motorway service areas 104
Nick Tilley
6 Vehicle excise duty evasion in the UK 126
Melissa /. Smith and Barry Webb
7 Predicting the future or summarising the past? 145
Crime mapping as anticipation
Shane D. Johnson, Kate J. Bowers and Ken Pease
Part 4: Case Studies in Crime Science for Detection
8 DNA fast-tracking 167
Barry Webb, Chloe Smith, Andreiu Brock and Michael Toiunsley
9 Cognition and detection: reluctant bedfellows? 191
Peter Stelfox and Ken Pease
Index 208
vi
Figures and tables
Figures
1.1 Medical science and crime science 6
1.2 2000 International Crime Victim Survey 10
1.3 Recorded crime rates for England and Wales: 1918-2002 11
1.4 Attrition within the criminal justice system 13
1.5 Trends in items stolen 15
2.1 Diagnosis space: the conjunction of criminal opportunity 40
2.2 Intervention space: crime prevention and the
conjunction of criminal opportunity 47
4.1 Proven adjudication for violence among prisoners 91
4.2 Number of prisoners on the Anti-Bullying Strategy (ABS)
system by stage and month 92
4.3 Recorded incidents of bullying from unit observation books 93
4.4 Percentage of prisoners reporting at least one experience
of being bullied in the previous month 93
4.5 Number of complaints from residents by quarter by
year and percentage of cells where TV sets had been installed 96
4.6 All adjudications for units 14 and 15 between January
1999 and September 2003 97
5.1 Time window for thefts from motor vehicles in MSA car parks 108
5.2 Time window for crimes in MSA lorry parks 112
6.1 VED evasion as a percentage of all observed traffic and
of all stock, in Great Britain, 1984/5-1999/2000 127
6.2 Estimated loss in revenue from VED evasion 1984-2002 128
6.3 Regional variations in VED evasion rates (in stock) in the
UK, 1999 and 2002 129
Crime Science
6.4 VED evasion rates for motorcycles and private and
light goods vehicles 2002, by age of vehicle 130
6.5 Time periods of evasion for PLGs and motorcycles, 2002 131
6.6 Average VED and motoring costs as a proportion of the
average weekly disposable income 133
6.7 Average insurance costs as a proportion of average
weekly disposable income 133
6.8 Future VED evasion 'in stock' rates 138
6.9 Predicted future trends 141
7.1 Two-dimensional and three-dimensional hotspot lattices 148
7.2 Prospective and retrospective maps 156
7.3 Search efficiency rates for prospective and retrospective maps 158
8.1 Summary of fast-tracking process and associated target times 171
8.2 Impact on latency: mean number of days for each stage 172
8.3 Retention rate for benchmark and fast-track periods 177
8.4 Retention rates for November benchmark and November
fast-track 178
8.5 Comparison of retention rates within the fast-track period 179
8.6 DNA capture rates from burglary dwelling scenes, by OCU 180
8.7 Recorded burglary dwellings: April 2001 - March 2003 182
8.8 Burglary dwellings: April 1999 - July 2003 182
8.9 Analysis of seasonal burglary pattern, 1999/00-2002/03 183
8.10 Burglaries in OCUs of varying fast-track performance 184
8.11 Number of offences committed by DNA-captured burglars
ini 2 months prior to their capture 185
8.12 Number of domestic burglaries committed by DNA-
captured burglars in the 12 months prior to their capture 186
Tables
2.1 Causes of, and interventions in, criminal and disorderly
events: the conjunction of criminal opportunity 41
2.2 Dynamic and emergent causes 48
3.1 A user-specified benefit-cost ratio 68
3.2 Input costs for Midtown burglary reduction scheme 70
3.3 Components of the estimated cost of a burglary 71
3.4 Impact measures and benefit measures used to derive
limited portfolio of outcomes 71
3.5 Multiple estimates of net benefits 74
3.6 Limited portfolio of benefit-cost ratios 75
5.1 Offences at CMPG force motorway service areas
15/5/01-28/02/02 106
Figures and tables
6.1 Changes to the licensing and registration system likely
to impact on VED evasion 137
7.1 Percentage (and numbers) of crimes predicted by
prospective and retrospective hotspot maps 157
7.2 Mantel Z-scores for different crime types 160
ix