Countering Insurgencies and Violent Extremism in South and South East Asia

389 Pages·2019·6.101 MB·English

by  Shanthie Mariet D’Souza

Countering Insurgencies and
Violent Extremism in South and
South East Asia
This volume of case studies examines the rise in violent extremism, terrorism
and insurgency in South and South East Asia, and subsequent state responses.
The South and South East of Asia has experienced various forms of extrem-
ism and violence for years, with a growing demand for academic or policy-
relevant work that will enhance understanding of the reasons behind this. The
violent challenges in this area have taken a variety of forms and are often exacer-
bated by lack of governance, tie- ins to existing regional criminal networks, colo-
nial legacies and a presence of international terrorist movements. Written by
experts with field experience, this volume analyzes the key element of successful
response as the appropriate application of doctrine following nuanced assess-
ment of threat. In practice, this often means counterinsurgency doctrine. The
essays also analyze the need for irregular war practitioners to systematically
examine the changing character of intrastate violent irregular challenges. The
volume fills a gap in the understanding of patterns, drivers, organizations and
ideologies of various insurgent and terrorist groups, and state responses. It also
provides a set of recommendations for addressing the unfolding situation.
This book will be of much interest to students of terrorism and political viol-
ence, counterinsurgency and counterterrorism, Asian politics and security studies
in general.
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza is Founder and President of Mantraya and Member
of the Research and Advisory Committee, Naval War College, Goa, India. She
has a PhD in International Relations from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New
Delhi, India.
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Countering Insurgencies and
Violent Extremism in South
and South East Asia
Edited by Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
First published 2019
by Routledge
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© 2019 selection and editorial matter, Shanthie Mariet D’Souza;
individual chapters, the contributors
The right of Shanthie Mariet D’Souza to be identified as the author of the
editorial matter, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been
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ISBN: 978-1-138-61555-7 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-0-429-46305-1 (ebk)
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Contents
List of illustrations viii
List of contributors ix
Introduction: understanding insurgencies and violent
extremism in South and South East Asia 1
ShANThIE MARIET D’SOUzA
PART I
Emerging challenges 15
1 Countering the Islamic State in Asia 17
DAWOOD AzAMI
2 The Philippines’ counter-t error conundrum: Marawi and
Duterte’s battle against the Islamic State 39
RIChARD JAVAD hEYDARIAN
3 The evolution of violent extremism and state response in
Indonesia 59
GEOFFREY MACDONALD, RhONDA MAYS AND
LUkE WAGGONER
4 The Rohingya and Myanmar’s counter terrorism approach 76
BIBhU PRASAD ROUTRAY
5 Emerging violent radical Islamism in the Maldives 91
kIRkLIN J. BATEMAN
vi Contents
PART II
Cautious optimism – or false dawn? 107
6 Back to the future: Nepali people’s war as “new war” 109
ThOMAS A. MARkS
7 India’s two- track response to the Naxalite movement:
security and development, but no political process 153
SAMIR PURI
8 Delimiting an Indian strategic approach to
counterinsurgency 168
BIBhU PRASAD ROUTRAY
9 Countering violent extremism: the Singapore experience 191
MOhAMED BIN ALI
10 Challenges in counter terrorism and counter violent
extremism in Malaysia 206
ANDRIN J. N. RAJ
PART III
Quagmires 223
11 The counterinsurgency quandary in post- 2001 Afghanistan 225
ANTONIO GIUSTOzzI
12 Insurgency and violent extremism in Pakistan 242
MARVIN G. WEINBAUM
13 Counterinsurgency in Pakistan: the role of legitimacy 261
ANATOL LIEVEN
14 Thailand’s south: roots of conflict 276
ThOMAS A. MARkS
PART IV
Victory? 285
15 Size still matters: explaining Sri Lanka’s counterinsurgency
victory over the Tamil Tigers 287
SAMEER P. LALWANI
Contents vii
16 Sri Lanka: state response to Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam 316
ThOMAS A. MARkS
Conclusion: framing effective responses and future
pathways 353
ShANThIE MARIET D’SOUzA
Index 365
Illustrations
Figures
2.1 Areas of operation of IS- affiliated groups 42
2.2 Philippine Strategy of holistic Approach (ShA) 50
6.1 Nepal districts 113
10.1 JI’s organization structure 209
15.1 Provincial boundaries of Sri Lanka and key locations 289
15.2 Territory controlled by LTTE prior to Eelam IV 290
15.3 Map of Eelam IV campaign – February 2007 and March 2009 293
15.4 Estimated unconventional rebel violence by year 296
15.5 Estimated unconventional rebel violence average by phase 296
15.6 Correlation of force ratios and loss-e xchange ratios 303
15.7 Boxplot of loss- exchange ratios (DVLER) from high
force- to-rebel ratios (FORCEREB) versus low force-t o-rebel
ratios 304
16.1 Sri Lanka political map 318
Tables
15.1 Phases of conflict 292
15.2 Descriptive statistics of variables 304
15.3 Linear regression analysis 305
Contributors
Mohamed Bin Ali is Assistant Professor at Studies in Inter- Religious Relations
in Pural Societies (SRP) Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. his
latest book is entitled The Roots of Religious Extremism: Understanding the
Salafi Doctrine of Al- Wala’ wal Bara, Imperial College Press (Insurgency
and Terrorism Series Volume 9), World Scientific Publishing Company,
November 2015.
Dawood Azami is an award winning journalist and academic. he works as a
Multi- Media Editor at the BBC (London), leading a team of journalists to
cover international news. Azami was a Visiting Scholar at the University of
Westminster, London, and the Ohio State University, Columbus, USA. Coun-
tering the Islamic State Group in Asia.
Kirklin J. Bateman is the Chair, War and Conflict Studies Department at the
College of International Security Affairs of the National Defense University
in Washington, DC. A retired U.S. Army officer, he completed his graduate
studies in history at George Mason University.
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza is Founder and President of Mantraya; Member of
Research and Advisory Committee, Naval war College, Goa; Board of Dir-
ectors, Regional Centre for Strategic Studies, Colombo; Associate editor for
the Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs; Editorial board
member of Small Wars and Insurgencies; Expert and Contributor to the
Middle East-A sia Project (MAP) at the Middle East Institute, Washington
DC; Senior analyst for the South Asia desk with the Wikistrat Analytic Com-
munity, and Adviser for Independent Conflict Research and Analysis in
London. Dr. D’Souza has previously been a Visiting Research Associate
(2017) at Murdoch University, Perth, Australia; Research Fellow (2010–2014)
at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), National University of Singa-
pore; Associate Fellow (2006–2010), Institute for Defence Studies and Ana-
lyses, New Delhi; Fulbright Fellow (2005–2006) and Visiting Research
Associate at South Asia Studies, The Paul H Nitze School of Advanced Inter-
national Studies, Johns hopkins University, Washington DC. As Adviser at