Counter-shock The Oil Counter-Revolution of the 1980s

402 Pages·2018·3.038 MB·English

by  Duccio Basosi (Anthology Editor), Giuliano Garavini (Anthology Editor), Massimiliano Trentin (Anthology Editor)

Duccio Basosi is Associate Professor of History of International
,
RelationsattheCa FoscariUniversityofVenice.Between2011and2016
hecoordinatedtheresearchproject,Theenginesofgrowth:foraglobal
history of the conflict between renewable, fossil and fissile energies
(1972–1992),,fundedbytheItalianMinistryofUniversityandResearch.
GiulianoGaraviniisSeniorBraudelFellowattheEuropeanUniversity
Institute (EUI) in Florence and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in the
Humanities at NYU Abu Dhabi. He is the author of After Empires:
EuropeanIntegration,DecolonizationandtheChallengefromtheGlobal
South,1957–1986(2012)andco-editorofOilShock:The1973Crisisand
its Economic Legacy (I.B.Tauris, 2016).
Massimiliano Trentin is Assistant Professor of History and Inter-
nationalRelationsoftheMiddleEastattheDepartmentofPoliticaland
Social Sciences, University of Bologna. He is the author of Engineers of
,
ModernDevelopment:EastGermanExpertsinBathistSyria,1965–1972
(2010), and editor of The Middle East and the Cold War: Between
Securityand Development (2012).
,Very well researched contributions with excellent details and analysis
in retrospective. Even those who were closely involved in policy
making and marketing, at the time, will enjoy reading it. They will be
shocked and amazed by how much they missed in their mad rush to
make ends meet.,
– Ramzi Salman,former OPEC Deputy Secretary General
,A comprehensive examination of the oil counter-shocks of the mid-
1980s and their consequences for alternative energy regimes, this
collectionisamajorcontributiontothehistoryofpetroleuminthelate
twentiethcentury.Itisamust-readforanyonewishingtounderstandthe
changes in the political economyof oil at the turn of the century.,
,
– Myrna Santiago, Professor of History, StMarys Collegeof
California, authorof TheEcologyof Oil
,The impact of the ,,oil counter-revolution,, in the 1980s has been as
consequentialforthecontemporaryenergyorderasthefarmorestudied
oil crises of the 1970s. This excellent collection of papers by an
international group of scholars will help remedy the imbalance.
Thechaptersarefocusedonkeyissuesandareconsistentlyinformative
and provocative. Counter-Shock is international and contemporary
history at its best.,
– David Painter, Associate Professorof History and
ForeignService, GeorgetownUniversity,author of
Oil and the AmericanCentury
COUNTER-
SHOCK
THE OIL COUNTER-REVOLUTION
OF THE1980S
EDITEDBY
DuccioBasosi,GiulianoGaravini
andMassimilianoTrentin
The publication of this book has benefited from a contribution from the FIRB 2010
Project,Imotoridellacrescita:perunastoriaglobaledelconflittotraenergierinnovabili,
fossili e fissili (1972–92),, funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research
(RBFR10JOTQ_001).
Publishedin2018by
I.B.Tauris&Co.Ltd
London(cid:129)NewYork
www.ibtauris.com
Copyrighteditorialselectionq2018DuccioBasosi,GiulianoGaravini
andMassimilianoTrentin
Copyrightindividualchaptersq2018DuccioBasosi,ElisabettaBini,JuanCarlosBoué,
ClaudiaCastiglioni,MartinChick,DagHaraldClaes,DuncanConnors,AngelaFaloppa,
GiovanniFavero,GiulianoGaravini,EinarLie,IbrahimAl-Marashi,VictorMcFarland,
MajidAl-Moneef,FrancescoPetrini,AngelaSantese,CatherineR.Schenk,
OlgaSkorokhodova,DavidE.Spiro,MassimilianoTrentin,EshrefTrushin,HenningTürk
TherightofDuccioBasosi,GiulianoGaraviniandMassimilianoTrentintobeidentified
astheeditorsofthisworkhasbeenassertedbytheeditorsinaccordancewiththe
Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988.
Allrightsreserved.Exceptforbriefquotationsinareview,thisbook,oranypartthereof,
maynotbereproduced,storedinorintroducedintoaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,
inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingor
otherwise,withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofthepublisher.
Referencestowebsiteswerecorrectatthetimeofwriting.
InternationalLibraryofTwentiethCenturyHistory131
ISBN:9781788313339
eISBN:9781786724113
ePDF:9781786734112
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Contents
Listof Figures andTables viii
Listof Contributors xi
Introduction Counter-Shockand Counter-Revolution 1
Duccio Basosi,Giuliano Garavini andMassimilianoTrentin
PART I OIL PRICESIN CONTEXT
1. Price Regimes,Price Series andPrice Trends: Oil Shocks
and Counter-Shocks in Historical Perspective 15
Giovanni Favero and Angela Faloppa
2. The Roleof theDollar and the Justificatory Discourse
of Neoliberalism 35
David E. Spiro
3. The Oil MarketandGlobal Financein the 1980s 55
Catherine R.Schenk
4. Counter-Shocked? TheOilMajors and the Price Slump
of the1980s 76
FrancescoPetrini
vi Counter-Shock
PART II THEPRODUCERS:OPEC
5. Saudi Arabia and the Counter-Shock of 1986 99
Majid Al-Moneef
6. Iran andthe Counter-Shock:Oil as aWeapon
(forSurvival) 117
Claudia Castiglioni
7. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, andthe Counter-Shock 140
Ibrahim Al-Marashi
PART III THEPRODUCERS:NON-OPEC
8. Abandoning EnforcedAutarky for Re-Insertion
in theWorld PetroleumMarket:Mexican Oil
Policy, 1976–86 161
Juan Carlos Boué
9. TheDouble Shock: TheSoviet Energy Crisisand the
OilPrice Collapse of 1986 180
Olga Skorokhodova
10. TheCounter-Shock in Norwegian Oil History 199
Einar Lie and Dag Harald Claes
11. Counter-Shock or After-Shock? North SeaOil and
Economics as Politics in the UK, 1973–86 218
Martin Chick
PART IV THE CONSUMERS
,
12. Reducing Dependence on OPEC Oil: The IEAs Energy
Strategy between1976 and the Mid-1980s 241
HenningTürk
Contents vii
13. The United States and the OilPrice Collapse of the 1980s 259
Victor McFarland
14. Backto the Future:Changes in Energy Cultures and
Patterns of Consumption inthe United States, 1973–86 278
Elisabetta Bini
PART V ENERGYAND ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES
15. The Rise of Environmentalist Movementsand the Debate
on Alternative Sources of Energy during the Oil Crisis
in the United States 299
Angela Santese
16. The Roleof Nuclear Reactor Technology on theDevelopment
of theNuclear Industryand Decision-Making in the
Contextof the PriceFluctuations of the 1970s and 1980s 317
Duncan Connors and Eshref Trushin
17. A Small Window: TheOpportunities for Renewable
Energies from Shock to Counter-Shock 336
Duccio Basosi
Bibliography 357
Index 375
List of Figures and Tables
Figures
1.1 Crude oilpricereferences,1861–2011 16
1.2 OPEC oil production andUS price,1973–2011 23
1.3 Non-OPECoil production andUS prices,1973–2011 24
2.1 Nominal and real prices of WTI 37
2.2 Real price of WTI:OLS regression 38
3.1 Monthly Dubai crude oilprice($/bbl) 56
3.2 NYMEX crude oil futures contractsdaily volume of trading,
1983–9 65
3.3 NYMEX WTI crudeoil at Cushing,Oklahoma, futures
contracts and spot price 69
3.4 Margin betweenthree-month and one-month crude oil
futures contracts 69
3.5 NYMEX crude oil futures contracts:spreadbetweenhigh
andlowprices(%), 1983–9 70
5.1 Price of ArabianLightbefore and after the 1986 crisis ($/bbl) 109
List of Figures and Tables ix
6.1 Iran:oil exports and prices,1979–2009 127
8.1 Mexico: total production of hydrocarbons and price of
crudeoil exportbasket, 1972–99 171
8.2 Mexico: fiscal income and gross petroleum industry
income, 1972–99 172
10.1Energy consumptionin Norway(GWH) by sources,
1977–2000 201
10.2Norway: currentand capital account
(millions Norwegian kroner) 210
13.1UScrudeoil imports (million barrels per day),1970–2015 267
16.1Costof constructionof reactorsand associated
lifetime costs over time 324
16.2Proportionof electricity production by nuclearpower
in five countries,1970–88 328
16.3Output of nuclear industry in thousandKTOESin
five countries,1970–88 329
16.4Energy balancein thousandKTOESin five countries,
1970–88 329
Tables
3.1 Evolution of forward contracts in oil and oilproducts,
1974–90 62
,
4.1 Seven majors control over oil 79
,
4.2 Crude oilproduction by worlds ten leading producers
in 1984 81
4.3 OPEC and non-OPEC crudeoilproduction 81