Costs of Air Pollution Control: Analyses of Emission Control Options for Ozone Abatement Strategies

211 Pages·2005·3.75 MB·English

by  Stefan Reis (auth.)

Stefan Reis
Costs of Air Pollution Control
Analyses of Emission Control Options
for Ozone Abatement Strategies
Stefan Reis
Costs of
Air Pollution Control
Analyses of Emission Control Options
for Ozone Abatement Strategies
With 94 Figures
123
Stefan Reis
University of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Heßbrühlstraße 49a, 70565 Stuttgart
Germany
Library of Congress Control Number: 2004111938
ISBN 3-540-43934-X Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York
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Abstract
This book describes the development and application of methods for the identifica-
tion of cost-effective strategies for the abatement of ozone precursor substances
(mainly nitrogen oxides, NO and non-methane volatile organic compounds,
x
NMVOC) in Europe. To achieve this, a trend scenario for the development of NOx
and NMVOC emissions has to be established. This scenario takes into account tech-
nological change as well as changes in activity rates in the relevant emission source
sectors. In addition to that, the impacts of EU policies and legislation in place and
in pipeline, for instance on road transport and on large combustion plants is reflect-
ed.
The development of such a trend scenario is of particular importance for the fol-
lowing assessment of emission control options beyond the business-as-usual devel-
opment and their effects on ambient ozone levels. For this assessment, a model
system had to be developed wich allows for an in-depth cost-effectiveness assess-
ment of implemented measures. Furthermore, this model system makes it possible
to identify emission targets to achieve compliance with EU thresholds, e.g. as set in
the EC Daughter Directive on Ozone or as established by the World Health Organ-
isation (WHO).
In an additional step, abatement costs for selected strategies are compared with
avoided damage costs (i.e. benefits) due to reduced ambient ozone concentrations to
conduct a comprehensive cost-benefit-assessment for a thorough evaluation of
abatement strategies.
After the evaluation of different control scenarios, a set of conclusions can be
drawn with respect to the future design of European air pollution control strategies.
First, it is evident that even assuming full compliance with the EC National Emis-
sion Ceilings Directive (NECD) in the year 2010 and the thus resulting emission
levels of NO and NMVOC, significant exceedances of air quality limit values for
x
groundlevel ozone with regard to human health will occur all over Europe. In addi-
tion to that, the threshold set for the protection of agricultural crops, AOT40 (accu-
mulated ozone over a threshold of 40 ppb, calculated for the growing season of April
to June) cannot be achieved even by most stringent emission control options.
Based upon the model calculations conducted, an emission reduction of approx.
50% in the mid-term, and of about 80% on the long run below the trend scenario
2010 values would be needed to achieve compliance with ozone target values. As a
comparison, the totel EU15 emission values for the NEC Directive are approx. 37%
below the trend scenario emissions calculated here for NO and NMVOC. Finally,
x
the potential contributions of emission control activities in Central and Eastern Eu-
vi Abstract
rope in the frame of the accession process are evaluated on the example of Poland,
the Czech Republic and Hungary. Here it is evident, that emission control in these
countries will both positively affect ozone levels in EU15 countries, and lead to mu-
tual benefits in terms of reduced damage costs.
In summary, a number of recommendations for the design of European air pollu-
tion control policies, in particular on groundlevel ozone, can be derived from the re-
sults of this work. From the perspective of cost-benefit analysis, it is strongly
recommendable to move towards holistic, integrated evaluations of air pollution
control, taking into account all relevant air pollutants and their effects. Only then it
is possible to fully account for the partly significant synergy effects and hidden ben-
efits from the reduction of air pollutants, without overestimating the costs versus the
benefits. Furthermore, the established ozone thresholds and the mid- and long-term
approaches for the development of emission limits in the frame of the Clean Air for
Europe (CAFE) strategy should be reviewed.
Preface
During the summers of recent years, Germany – and other countries in Europe – ex-
perienced a considerable number of days, where limit values for ground level ozone
set for the protection of human health were exceeded. This occurred in spite of re-
ductions of ozone precursor emissions in Europe during the 1990s due to European
and national environmental legislation. And with European air quality limit values
having become more and more stringent over time, the question arises, to what ex-
tent emission control measures will have to be implemented to achieve compliance
with short and long term targets for ozone and other air quality problems.
Emission control, however, is usually associated with considerable costs. Thus,
air pollution control strategies do not only have to take into account compliance is-
sues. Cost-effective approaches to achieve targets have to be identified. In addition
to that, benefits arising from reduced levels of air pollution need to be accounted for
in the frame of a cost-benefit assessment of different options to reduce air pollutant
emissions, in order to find the most efficient pathway to improved air quality.
The research work described by this book tries to address all of these tasks, with
the ultimate goal to improve the methodology and application of cost-effectiveness
and cost-benefit analyses of air pollution control options. Its results aim to give an-
swers to the most important questions associated with the reduction of ozone pre-
cursor emissions, their impacts on ground level ozone concentrations, and further
options to achieve long-term air quality limit values set in the EC Ozone Daughter
Directive, which has recently passed the final steps of the legislative process. The
following chapters address key aspects of state-of-the-art research in the field of air
pollution control, focusing on tropospheric ozone, as it brings together multiple dis-
ciplines, namely environmental sciences, engineering and economics to conduct a
full scale assessment with the aim of providing tools and methods for policy devel-
opment.
Acknowledgement
Any research conducted nowadays is marked by a high level of collaboration, even
more so, when interdisciplinarity and integration of methods and tools are the focus
of the scientific work. Hence, the work described in this book would have been im-
possible withouth the invaluable contributions, inspirations and comments of sever-
al colleagues. I would like to express my gratitude to the partners working in the
viii Preface
research project INFOS, funded by the European Commission, Directorate General
for Reserarch for their excellent work which has formed the basis for the analysis
conducted. In particular, I am greatly indebted to Dr. David Simpson, who never
failed to ask the right questions and even more often helped to solve problems com-
ing up with simply brilliant solutions. In addition to that, I would like to thank my
supervisors, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Rainer Friedrich and Prof. Dr.-Ing. Günther Baumbach,
as the work described here would have been simply impossible without their fair
comments and experience.
Special thanks go to my colleagues at the Institute of Energy Economics and the
Rational Use of Energy at the University of Stuttgart, Germany, in particular my co-
workers in the Air Polluction Control Section, who did their share to support my
work and offer helpful comments and support whenever needed.
Finally, without the inspiration and vision of my supervisor, Prof. Anthony Clay-
ton, providing guidance while I was working on my diploma thesis at the University
of Edinburgh back in 1996, I am not sure if I would have considered taking up sci-
entific research at all. And last but - for sure - not least, there is no way to adequately
express my gratitude for the never faltering support of my parents, Karl-Josef and
Hildegard Reis, who encouraged me to pursue my goals and thus have a considera-
ble share in the realisation of this book.
Contents
1 Introduction
1.1 Scope.............................................................................................................1
1.2 Aims..............................................................................................................2
1.3 Structure.......................................................................................................3
2 Air Pollution in Europe
2.1 Introduction.................................................................................................5
2.1.1 Scope - Tropospheric Ozone put in Perspective ...........................................5
2.1.2 Emission Inventories and Monitoring in Europe...........................................6
2.1.3 Development of Air Pollutant Emissions over Time...................................10
2.2 Focus: Tropospheric Ozone......................................................................10
2.2.1 Ozone Formation in the Troposphere – The Tropospheric Cycle...............10
2.2.2 The Ozone Situation in 1999.......................................................................13
2.2.3 Specific Aspects of Ozone Formation.........................................................15
2.3 Air Pollution Impacts................................................................................18
2.3.1 Major Air Pollution Problems.....................................................................18
2.3.2 The Concept of Critical Levels....................................................................20
2.3.3 Health Effects of Ozone..............................................................................20
2.3.4 Impacts on Natural Vegetation and Agricultural Crops..............................22
2.3.5 Other Aspects of Tropospheric Ozone........................................................24
2.4 Activities on Air Pollution Control..........................................................25
2.4.1 Introduction.................................................................................................25
2.4.2 The European Union....................................................................................25
2.4.3 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)...................30
2.4.4 Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC)...................................30
2.4.5 World Health Organisation (WHO)............................................................32
3 Emissions, Sources and Abatement Costs
3.1 Introduction...............................................................................................35
3.2 Emission Analysis......................................................................................36
3.2.1 Anthropogenic and Biogenic Emission Sources.........................................36
3.3 Country Analysis.......................................................................................43
3.3.1 Emissions per Country.................................................................................43
x Contents
3.3.2 Per Capita Emissions...................................................................................43
3.3.3 Time Series Analysis ..................................................................................46
3.4 Scenario Development...............................................................................47
3.4.1 Methodology for Emission Projection: Approach.......................................47
3.4.2 Emission Projection for a Business-as-usual Trend
Scenario for 2010........................................................................................48
3.4.3 Sectoral Air Pollution Control Policies.......................................................52
3.4.4 Detailed Sectoral Projection........................................................................55
3.4.5 Trend Scenario Emissions...........................................................................59
3.5 Assessing Abatement Costs.......................................................................62
3.5.1 General Approach and Methodology..........................................................62
3.5.2 Guidelines for Cost Data Collection...........................................................63
3.5.3 Generating Abatement Cost Curves............................................................65
3.6 Emission Abatement Options...................................................................66
3.6.1 Abatement Options Analysed......................................................................66
3.6.2 Calculating Costs of Abatement Measures.................................................73
3.6.3 Detailed Calculation of Costs per Sector....................................................76
4 Optimising Ozone Abatement Strategies
4.1 Introduction...............................................................................................81
4.1.1 Aim: Optimisation of Air Pollution Control Strategies...............................81
4.1.2 Aspects of Cost-Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit Assessment.....................82
4.1.3 State of the Art: Selected Assessment Models............................................84
4.1.4 Focus: Problem Formulation for Tropospheric Ozone................................86
4.2 Model Design and Implementation..........................................................88
4.2.1 OMEGA-O - Basic Features and Model Description................................88
3
4.2.2 Data-Model: Input and Output....................................................................92
4.2.3 Detailed Model Formulation.......................................................................99
4.2.4 Model Interfaces for Cost-Benefit Assessment.........................................105
4.3 Model Evaluation....................................................................................106
4.3.1 Uncertainties in Input Data........................................................................106
4.3.2 Specific Uncertainties when Modelling Tropospheric Ozone..................113
4.3.3 Uncertainty Treatment in Other Studies....................................................117
5 Modelling Results for Tropospheric Ozone
5.1 Cost-effectiveness Analysis.....................................................................119
5.1.1 Closing the Gaps towards Ozone Thresholds for
Health and Vegetation...............................................................................119
5.1.2 Focus: Human Health................................................................................119
5.1.3 Discussing costs and benefits for EU Member States...............................123
5.1.4 Analysing the Distribution of Burdens and Benefits.................................129
5.2 Additional Emission Reductions............................................................133
5.2.1 Which Ozone Levels can be Achieved......................................................133