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Cost-Benefit/Cost-Effectiveness Research of Drug Abuse Prevention: Implications for Programming and Policy Editors: William J. Bukoski, Ph.D. Richard I. Evans, Ph.D. NIDA Research Monograph 176 1998 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES National Institutes of Health National Institute on Drug Abuse Division of Epidemiology and Prevention Research 5600 Fishers Lane Rockville, MD 20857 ACKNOWLEDGMENT This monograph is based on the papers from a technical review on “Cost-Benefit/Cost-Effectiveness Research of Drug Abuse Prevention: Implications for Programming and Policy” held on July 28-29, 1994. The review meeting was sponsored by the National Institute on Drug Abuse. COPYRIGHT STATUS The National Institute on Drug Abuse has obtained permission from the copyright holders to reproduce certain previously published material as noted in the text. Further reproduction of this copyrighted material is permitted only as part of a reprinting of the entire publication or chapter. For any other use, the copyright holder's permission is required. All other material in this volume except quoted passages from copyrighted sources is in the public domain and may be used or reproduced without permission from the Institute or the authors. Citation of the source is appreciated. Opinions expressed in this volume are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or official policy of the National Institute on Drug Abuse or any other part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The U.S. Government does not endorse or favor any specific commercial product or company. Trade, proprietary, or company names appearing in this publication are used only because they are considered essential in the context of the studies reported herein. National Institute on Drug Abuse NIH Publication No. 98-4021 Printed June 1998 NIDA Research Monographs are indexed in the Index Medicus. They are selectively included in the coverage of American Statistics Index, BioSciences Information Service, Chemical Abstracts, Current Contents, Psychological Abstracts, and Psychopharmacology Abstracts. ii Table of Contents Click on the title or the page number to go to section Introduction......................................................................................1 William J. Bukoski The Impact of Substance Abuse on Federal Spending..........................5 Jeffrey Merrill and Kimberley Fox A Historical Perspective on Effective Prevention...........................37 Richard I. Evans School-Based Approaches to Drug Abuse Prevention: Evidence for Effectiveness and Suggestions for Determining Cost-Effectiveness...........................................................................59 Gilbert J. Botvin, Elizabeth M. Botvin, and Hirsch Ruchlin Effectiveness of Prevention Interventions With Youth at High Risk of Drug Abuse..............................................................83 Richard F. Catalano, Kevin P. Haggerty, Randy R. Gainey, Marilyn J. Hoppe, and Devon D. Brewer Costs, Benefits, and Cost-Effectiveness of Comprehensive Drug Abuse Prevention..........................................................................111 Mary Ann Pentz Overview of Methods: Cost-Effectiveness, Cost-Benefits, and Cost-Offsets of Prevention.....................................................130 Albert Woodward Analytic Issues for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Substance Abuse Prevention..........................................................................141 Gary A. Zarkin and Robert L. Hubbard Benefits and Costs of a Family-Focused Methadone Treatment and Drug Abuse Prevention Program: Preliminary Findings..........161 Robert D. Plotnick, Diane S. Young, Richard F. Catalano, and Kevin P. Haggerty iii Issues and Methods in Evaluating Costs, Benefits, and Cost-Effectiveness of Drug Abuse Prevention Programs for High-Risk Youth......................................................................184 Marsha Lillie-Blanton, Lisa Werthamer, Pinka Chatterji, Claire Fienson, and Christine Caffray Implications for Prevention Policy: A Commentary....................214 Robert L. DuPont iv Introduction William J. Bukoski In an era of managed care, downsizing of Government services and budgets, the advent of a science of drug abuse prevention, and confronted with increases in adolescent drug abuse, the practice of drug abuse prevention finds it necessary to address a number of interrelated critical questions in order to guide future program development and policy: What scientific evidence supports the efficacy and effectiveness of drug abuse prevention programs and policy currently in effect in schools, the workplace, and communities across the country? What are the costs associated with those programs and are those programs and policies beneficial to those receiving them? How can the practice of prevention be improved by the emerging science of drug abuse prevention? And, what prevention programs and services have demonstrated their cost-effectiveness or cost benefit and can be implemented in the evolving healthcare system under the pressures of managed care? Agency administrators of drug abuse prevention programs are seeking science-based answers to these questions in order to plan and implement drug abuse prevention programs that reach the populations most at risk of drug abuse with high-quality, proven, and cost-efficient approaches to counter the increased pressures to use illicit drugs that youth, young adults, and adults are experiencing in our society. Health administrators for managed-care, fee-for-service, and public and private healthcare plans are exploring a wide array of health benefits to provide in their healthcare plans to include the introduction of drug abuse prevention services. However, to make wise decisions concerning the use of limited resources, drug abuse prevention program administrators, healthcare providers, and insurers are asking tough questions concerning the efficacy, cost, and benefits to be derived for their clients by providing drug abuse prevention programs and services under the auspices of their agencies’ healthcare programs and plans. While the adage that “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” still has currency in the current debate, empirical data gathered through rigorous scientific methods are being demanded by the field so that policy making can be improved by the adoption and implementation of 1 science-based drug abuse prevention programs that actually work in the real world. In response, the emerging science of drug abuse prevention is beginning to provide practical answers for these types of questions. For example, over the past 5 years, the science of drug abuse prevention (Bukoski 1997; Mrazek and Haggerty 1994; Sloboda and David 1997) has yielded a number of important findings and emerging prevention principles that indicate adolescent drug abuse prevention can be prevented by theory-based approaches that focus on social skill development; drug resistance techniques; family monitoring and communication skills; strengthening antidrug abuse norms and perceptions of social disapproval; promoting increased awareness and salience of the perception of harmful effects resulting from drug use; creating positive social networks; promulgation of preventive health policies; and community mobilization for prevention. This research also suggests the importance of the variety of implementation actions that are essential to promote high fidelity and quality of program delivery leading to positive program outcomes. These implementation techniques include the employment of interactive teaching methods; staged learning through behavioral analysis to include coaching, role modeling, practice, reinforcement, and training for generalization; and use of multiple developmentally appropriate booster sessions. However, hard data on the cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit of specific drug abuse prevention programs have proven to be elusive. Only a handful of studies have been conducted over the past 20 years, providing suggestive evidence that exposure to drug abuse prevention programs could be justified based on data derived from cost- effectiveness and cost-benefit studies. As a result of this desperate need for additional research to be focused on this topic, the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) convened a group of experts in the fields of drug abuse prevention research and economic evaluation studies (cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit) to assess the current scientific knowledge base of the efficacy of drug abuse prevention programs, to explore state-of-the-art economic evacuation methodologies and their application in the future to analysis of the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of drug abuse prevention, and to identify possible research directions for these types of studies that are needed by the field of drug abuse prevention. Scientific papers from this meeting were then reviewed, revised, and assembled to form this publication. This NIDA monograph attempts to place in perspective a number of salient scientific and practical issues by providing a timely and 2 relevant review of scientific evidence that supports drug abuse prevention programs and policy, by discussing methodological and analytic developments in conducting cost-benefit and cost- effectiveness studies in the area of drug abuse prevention, and by assessing the implications of these research studies for the development in the future of evidence-based drug abuse prevention that would meet the highest scientific standards of excellence. This research could lead to high-quality, accessible, effective, and cost- efficient drug abuse prevention services offered in a variety of venues to include schools, communities, the workplace, and the healthcare system. In the first chapter, Merrill and Fox discuss in detail the cost impact of drug abuse on Federal entitlement spending. This chapter provides a unique perspective on the multimillion-dollar drain annually on the Federal entitlement budget to pay for the health consequences of drug abuse in our society. These costs are hidden in the budgetary process, and this chapter provides interesting data concerning actual dollar savings that could be realized through more effective drug abuse prevention services. The next four chapters by Evans; Botvin and colleagues; Catalano and colleagues; and Pentz provide a solid review of the scientific literature concerning the efficacy of drug abuse prevention programs implemented in schools and for high-risk youth. Scientific evidence presented in these chapters suggests that drug abuse prevention programs that have been tested under rigorous controlled conditions have demonstrated impact in reducing the prevalence and incidence of adolescent drug abuse. Preliminary evidence provided in these chapters suggests that exploratory analysis of empirical data is beginning to yield rudimentary scientific evidence of the cost- effectiveness of drug abuse prevention programming. In the remaining chapters, a technical discussion of the quality and applicability of cost evaluation methodologies for the analysis of drug abuse prevention is presented. For example, Woodward provides a definitional overview of the methods of cost-effectiveness, cost- benefit, and cost-offset methodologies. Zarkin and Hubbard provide an insightful and technically sound econometric cost evaluation methodology and framework for assessing the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of drug abuse prevention programs. In their chapter, Plotnick and colleagues report on applying cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit methods to the assessment of a family-focused drug abuse prevention and treatment program for high-risk youth and families involved in methadone maintenance therapy. Then, Lillie-Blanton and colleagues discuss salient issues for applying cost-evaluation techniques to drug abuse prevention programs, citing advantages of 3 various approaches and methodological barriers that still exist hindering program development and cost evaluations. Finally, DuPont provides a concluding chapter that begins to assess the implications of cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses for drug abuse prevention policy. Obviously, this NIDA monograph only begins the scientific conversation on the relevance, appropriateness, and practical value of conducting scientifically valid economic evaluations of drug abuse prevention programs that are implemented in schools, communities, places of work, and healthcare settings across the country. This monograph suggests that science has an important role in the discussion currently enjoined by drug prevention practitioners, policymakers, and health funding entities across the country and that the scientific community stands as a ready partner with prevention practitioners in the development of scientifically sound economic evaluation data to guide future drug abuse prevention programs and policy. REFERENCES Bukoski, W., ed. Meta-analysis of Drug Abuse Prevention Programs. National Institute on Drug Abuse Research Monograph 170. NIH Pub. No. 97-4146. Washington, DC: Supt. of Docs., U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 1997. Mrazek, P., and Haggerty, R. Reducing Risks for Mental Disorders. Institute of Medicine. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1994. Sloboda, Z., and David, S. Preventing Drug Use Among Children and Adolescents: A Research-Based Guide. NIH Pub. No. 97- 4212. Washington, DC: Supt. of Docs., U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 1997. AUTHOR William J. Bukoski, Ph.D. Associate Director for Prevention Research Coordination National Institute on Drug Abuse National Institutes of Health Parklawn Building, Room 9A53 5600 Fishers Lane Rockville, MD 20857 4 The Impact of Substance Abuse on Federal Spending Jeffrey Merrill and Kimberley Fox THE USE OF EPIDEMIOLOGY IN PUBLIC POLICY FORMULATION The purpose of this chapter is to demonstrate how epidemiologic research can be a powerful tool in estimating the costs of substance abuse to society. Traditionally, epidemiologic studies have provided information on how to develop and target interventions aimed at preventing and curtailing the spread of a specific disease. But epidemiology may be used to examine a risk factor in terms of more than simply the etiology of a disease. For example, by studying the effects of a single risk factor on multiple diseases, the impact of that factor on overall healthcare costs or government spending may also be quantified. This notion is extremely applicable with respect to estimating the full impact of substance abuse on society. Much epidemiologic evidence already exists on the relationship between smoking, drinking, the use of drugs, and adverse health outcomes. Already, this research has led to changes in public policy, from bans on smoking in public places due to mounting evidence of the impact of passive smoke, to greater enforcement of drunk driving laws resulting from the evidence linking drinking to traffic accidents. By combining studies looking at each of these substances as risk factors for a variety of diseases, a more complete picture of the heavy toll that substance abuse takes on society can be seen. Doing this will help provide evidence of why, ironically, greater investment in substance abuse prevention and treatment is even more necessary as efforts are intensified in other areas to cut government spending. 5 PAST RESEARCH HAS LAID THE FOUNDATION Considerable research already exists, particularly as it relates to the impact of cigarette and alcohol use on the cost of healthcare. Costs of Smoking Quantifying the costs of smoking has been a major public health issue since the 1960s. Annually, the Surgeon General issues a report on smoking and health that summarizes all current epidemiologic evidence on the relationship between smoking, disease, and death. The most noteworthy of these was Reducing Health Consequences of Smoking: 25 Years of Progress (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services [DHHS] 1989), issued in 1989, which reported smoking attributable fractions (SAFs) for 10 selected causes of death using data collected in a 4-year, 50-State study conducted by the National Cancer Society. These SAFs represent the proportion of deaths for a given disease that could have been avoided if cigarette smoking were eliminated. Many economic cost studies have relied on these estimates to calculate the number of smoking-attributable deaths for specific regions and the number of years of potential life lost as a result of smoking. Some have also employed these mortality statistics to estimate hospital utilization and costs. However, mortality SAFs, which measure smokers’ risk of dying of a disease, are different than morbidity SAFs, or smokers’ risk of contracting a disease. Thus, mortality SAFs cannot be used reliably for estimating morbidity or hospital costs. Recognizing the shortcomings of using mortality SAFs in estimating healthcare costs, Rice and colleagues (1990) developed a different methodology for identifying smokers’ attributable risk of utilizing health services using National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data. For people who had neoplastic, circulatory, and respiratory diseases, Rice analyzed the use of hospital days and physician visits by smokers compared to nonsmokers by age and sex. From these comparisons, Rice was able to calculate morbidity-attributable risks, which were then applied to hospital and outpatient expenditures for these diseases to estimate annual smoking-related healthcare costs. While not as disease-specific as the mortality-based studies, Rice’s methodology set a standard for estimating annual healthcare costs associated with smoking. 6

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