Cooperation and Protracted Conflict in International Affairs : Cycles of Reciprocity

125 Pages·2017·8.85 MB·English

by  Anat Niv-Solomon (auth.)

Cooperation and Protracted
fl
Con ict in International Affairs
AnatNiv-Solomon
Cooperation and
fl
Protracted Con ict
in International
Affairs
Cycles of Reciprocity
AnatNiv-Solomon
CollegeofStatenIsland
CityUniversityofNewYork
StatenIsland,NewYork,USA
ISBN978-3-319-45804-5 ISBN978-3-319-45805-2(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-45805-2
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016950851
©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s)2017
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsof
translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
retrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology
nowknownorhereafterdeveloped.
Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthis
publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesare
exemptfromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse.
Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformation
in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the
publishernortheauthorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespectto
thematerialcontainedhereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.
Coverillustration:AbstractBricksandShadows©StephenBonk/Fotolia.co.uk
Printedonacid-freepaper
ThisPalgraveMacmillanimprintispublishedbySpringerNature
TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAG
Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland
To Alon, Amit, and Edenfor yourunrelenting supportand patience
C
ONTENTS
1 WhenReciprocitySometimes Fails 1
Positive TIT-FOR-TAT (TFT)Reciprocity 3
Negative Cycle/Protracted Conflict 6
The ReciprocalDynamic 7
The RoadNotTaken:CriticalJunctures in International
Relations 8
Methodology and CaseStudies 13
References 19
2 Insidethe CriticalJuncture 23
Power Symmetry 26
IssueSaliency 30
Image 33
Prospect Theory 36
Summary 45
References 48
3 EqualFriends orEqual Enemies:PowerAsymmetry
andthe ImpactonReciprocal Cycles 55
CriticalJuncture 56
Historical Relationsand Buildup to War 57
Hoa people, Kampuchea,and Aid 62
Negative ReciprocalCycle 65
After theWar 66
vii
viii CONTENTS
Variables atWork 67
Summary 73
References 75
4 ThePower of Context: ProspectTheory,
Domainsof Operation, andReciprocity 79
CriticalJuncture 80
Prospect Theory, WhyUse It? 80
A Crisisover ShrimpBoats 81
Variable Assessment 88
Summary 97
References 99
5 ReciprocalCyclesin International Politics:
SummaryandConclusions 101
Policy Implications 102
Chinaand the USA:TheSouth ChinaSea 102
Iran and theUSA:Strengtheningthe JCPOA 105
Summary and Conclusions 109
References 111
Index 113
L A
IST OF BBREVIATIONS
DRV DemocraticRepublicofVietnam
NYT NewYorkTimes
PLA People’sLiberationArmy
PRC People’sRepublicofChina
SCS SouthChinaSea
SRV SocialRepublicofVietnam
TFT TitforTat
UN UnitedNations
ix
L F
IST OF IGURES
Fig.1.1 CriticalJuncture 9
Fig.1.2 CriticalJunctureandReciprocalCycles 9
Fig.2.1 PowerSymmetryandReciprocity 29
Fig.2.2 IssueSaliencyandReciprocity 32
Fig.2.3 ImpactofImageonReciprocalCycles 35
Fig.2.4 ReciprocalDynamicsAccordingtoProspectTheory 41
Fig.2.5 DomainInteractionandReciprocity 42
Fig.2.6 DomainInteractionandReciprocity:TargetState 43
Fig.4.1 Reciprocaldynamicsaccordingtoprospecttheory 92
Fig.4.2 MexicoGuatemalafishingdispute 96
xi
L T
IST OF ABLES
Table2.1 Variables’Impact 45
Table3.1 TimelineofEvents 59
Table3.2 VariableAssessmentattheCriticalJuncture 74
Table4.1 Timelineofevents 84
Table4.2 ConsiderationsforDomainAnalysis 95
Table4.3 VariableAssessmentattheCriticalJuncture 98
xiii