Conventional Military Strategy in the Third Nuclear Age

142 Pages·2023·8.986 MB·English

by  Joy Mitra

CONVENTIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY
IN THE THIRD NUCLEAR AGE
This volume delves into the way conventional deterrence operates between nuclear-
armed states in the third nuclear age. Unlike the first and second ages the advent of
this new age has witnessed greater strain on the principles of mutual vulnerability and
survivability that may result in increased risks of advertent or inadvertent escalation
and horizontal nuclear proliferation.
The book looks at the sum of three key simultaneous developments in the
third nuclear age that merit attention. These include the emergence of asymmetric
strategies, the introduction of unmanned platforms and the expansion of nuclear
arsenals. The volume discusses how these concurrent developments might shape the
practice of conventional deterrence and provides useful insights into conventional
military dynamics, not just among the current nuclear dyads but also ones that may
emerge in future. It seeks answers to several key issues in state security not limited to:
• What purpose and scope does the conventional military instrument have in a
state’s overall military strategy versus other nuclear-armed states?
• If mutual vulnerability and deterrence are the frameworks, why did the prospect
of escalation appear in the first place?
• What are the trends – political, doctrinal, or technological – that augment or
diminish conventional and nuclear interface?
With insights on military crises that have witnessed participation from nuclear-
armed states like the United States, Russia, China, Pakistan, and India, this book will
especially be of interest to scholars and researchers working in the areas of security
and deterrence studies, defence and strategic studies, peace and conflict studies, and
foreign policy. It will also appeal to policymakers, career bureaucrats, security and
defence practitioners, and professionals working with think tanks and embassies.
Joy Mitra is a New Delhi–based analyst working on security issues spanning nuclear
doctrine and posture development, conventional deterrence, and counter-terrorism with
a focus on Southern Asia. He is a former visiting fellow at the Stimson Center’s South
Asia program and a former non-resident fellow at EastWest Institute. His commentary on
these issues has appeared on The Wire, The Diplomat, Observer Research Foundation,
South Asian Voices, Faultlines, and South Asia Intelligence Review, among others.
International Politics in the Age of Disruption
Series Editors:
Harsh V. Pant, Observer Research Foundation, India; King’s College London,
UK
Frank O’Donnell, the Fletcher School, Tufts University; the Stimson Center,
Washington DC, USA
Avinash Paliwal, SOAS, University of London, UK
International Politics in the Age of Disruption aims to bring together cross-sectoral
expertise from across the globe, to inform and mediate academic and policy
debates on contemporary global politics. It integrates sophisticated theoretical
approaches in international politics and their application, with a policy-relevant
focus for professional and academic audiences.
As multiple disruptions strain the post-Cold War global order, new strategic
dilemmas for States have emerged in unpredictable ways to create challenges
which few are equipped to grapple with effectively.
The volumes in this series explore a host of themes which include the
changing global and regional balance of power; technological innovations,
artificial intelligence, influence of Big Tech, and their impact on political
societies; national security, surveillance, and warfare. The series also discusses
non-traditional security threats and the post-pandemic world order; evolving
socio-cultural trends such as populism; social media and political advocacy;
challenges to economic globalisation; the emerging energy dynamics; and
gender and politics, among others key issues in politics.
Techno-Geopolitics
U.S.-China Technology Competition and the Practice of Digital Statecraft
Pak Nung Wong
Understanding Security Role Evolution of US, China and India
Setting the Stage
Aditi Malhotra
Conventional Military Strategy in the Third Nuclear Age
Joy Mitra
For more information about this series, please visit:
https://www. routledge. com/ International- Politics- in- the- Age- of- Disruption/ book- series/
IPAD
CONVENTIONAL
MILITARY STRATEGY
IN THE THIRD
NUCLEAR AGE
Joy Mitra
Cover image: Getty Images
First published 2023
by Routledge
4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2023 Joy Mitra
The right of Joy Mitra to be identified as author of this work has been
asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright,
Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced
or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other
means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and
recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without
permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks
or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and
explanation without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN: 978-1-032-41972-5 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-032-43169-7 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-36597-6 (ebk)
DOI: 10.4324/9781003365976
Typeset in Bembo
by Deanta Global Publishing Services, Chennai, India
CONTENTS
List of Figures vi
List of Tables vii
Acknowledgments viii
Introduction 1
1 Conventional Military Purpose in the Third Nuclear Age 4
2 From kill chain to kill web 49
3 Unmanned Systems in Conventional Forces 75
4 Offence-Defence Integration and Nuclear Ambiguity:
Effect on Conventional Stability 102
Conclusion 127
Index 131
FIGURES
1.1 Bracket of mutual hurt 6
1.2 Peacetime arrangement 7
1.3 Flawed peacetime arrangement 7
1.4 Crisis arrangement 8
1.5 Cross-level instrumentalized strategy 11
1.6 Level versus domain 19
TABLES
1.1 Summary of doctrine-posture attributes of NWSs in
conventional and nuclear domains 12
1.2 Summary of attributes of coercion across dyads 17
1.3 Summary of nature/scale attributes of crises in the third
nuclear age 26
2.1 The growth of targets: from instant thunder to phase I 51
2.2 Coalition strikes by target category for Operation Desert Storm 51
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I am fortunate to have received support from a lot of people directly or indirectly
while completing this project, and to all of them I owe a ton of gratitude.
To start with, I would like to mention two authors and their works, that
I was deeply inspired from and were essential in shaping this text; “The Kill
Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare” by Chris Brose
and “The Iraq War: Strategy, Tactics and Military Lessons” by Anthony, H.
Cordesman. For someone who started with very little knowledge on these sub-
jects their works were a godsend.
I would like to specially thank Dr Sreeram Chaulia, Prof. Mohsin Khan, and
my former boss Dr Ajai Sahni. At different points in my career their support and
encouragement have helped me carry on in my professional journey.
I am deeply thankful to Dr Amit Gupta, who was always very kind to take out
time for discussions with me despite being very busy himself.
I cannot put in words how indebted I’m to Dr Harsh Pant and Dr Frank
O’Donnell; they are some of the kindest and most generous persons in academia
and I hope I can replicate some of that in my life and profession.
I am grateful to all my editors and reviewers for their direction; all the good
work is a result of their suggestions, and all the mistakes are solely mine.
Finally, I’m indebted to my family and doctors for their endless support for me
and for helping me get back on my feet after an injury.
10.4324/9781003365976-1
INTRODUCTION
The advent of the nuclear era introduced two components in the security com-
petition between states: one, it brought overwhelming destructive power and
mutual vulnerability,1 and second, it eroded the security dilemma by guarantee-
ing survival.2 This rendered the concept of decisive victory outdated, defence
was impossible, and deterrence took over as the preferred concept for view-
ing security between nuclear-armed states.3 Scholars categorized this nuclear era
into three ages.4 The first nuclear age represented the Cold War–era bipolar com-
petition between the United States and the Soviet Union characterized by arms
races and destabilizing nuclear postures.5 The second nuclear age saw horizontal
nuclear proliferation and the emergence of regional nuclear powers,6 who, unlike
the Cold War participants, lacked the luxury of geography and the experience of
arms control. Conventional conflict was not non-existent in these two ages: in
the first it transpired on the territory of client states, and in the second, it tran-
spired directly on the territory of nuclear-armed states. However, somewhere
around the middle of the current decade the concept of a new third nuclear age
began taking shape, marked by the potential emergence of several new nuclear
powers, diffusion of destabilizing new technologies, and, most importantly, a
new era of competition between great as well as new nuclear powers.7
The principles of mutual vulnerability and survivability that had hitherto
ensured no major flare-ups between nuclear-armed states did not retain the same
effect, leading to increased risks of horizontal nuclear proliferation and risks of
advertent or inadvertent escalation.
Many different military crises witnessed participation from nuclear-armed
states like the United States, Russia, China, Pakistan, and India, in this period,
DOI: 10.4324/9781003365976-1