Conflict Hot Spots: Emergence, Causes and Consequences

160 Pages·2010·3.583 MB·English

by  Alex Braithwaite

Conflict Hot Spots
Emergence, Causes and Consequences
Alex Braithwaite
ConfliCt Hot SpotS
Dedicated to Nanny Car Car and Nanny Seaside
Conflict Hot Spots
Emergence, Causes and Consequences
Alex BrAitHwAite
University College London, UK
© Alex Braithwaite 2010
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher.
Alex Braithwaite has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988,
to be identified as the author of this work.
Published by
Ashgate Publishing Limited Ashgate Publishing Company
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Braithwaite, Alex.
Conflict hot spots : emergence, causes and consequences.
1. Hot spots (Political science) 2. Geopolitics.
I. Title
327.1'01-dc22
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Braithwaite, Alex.
Conflict hot spots : emergence, causes, and consequences / by Alex Braithwaite.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-7546-7937-0 (hbk) -- ISBN 978-0-7546-9855-5 (ebk)
1. War. 2. War--Causes. 3. Wars. I. Title.
JZ6385.B73 2010
355'.033--dc22
2010009208
ISBN 9780754679370 (hbk)
ISBN 9780754698555 (ebk)
Contents
List of Maps vii
List of Tables ix
Introduction 1
1 The Emergence of Conflict Hot Spots 13
2 A Location- and Neighborhood-Based Account of Conflict Hosting
and Hot Spots 51
3 The Hosting of International Conflicts 67
4 The Causes of Conflict Hot Spots 79
5 Hot Spots and the Diffusion of International Conflict 91
6 The Consequences of Conflict Hot Spots 111
Conclusion 125
Bibliography 131
Index 145
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List of Maps
I.1 MID Participation Levels, 1816–2001 5
I.2 MID Hosting Levels, 1816–2001 5
I.3 MID Locations, 1816–2001 7
1.1 MID Locations, 1816–1853 31
1.2 MID Locations, 1854–1913 32
1.3 MID Locations, 1914–1945 32
1.4 MID Locations, 1946–1989 33
1.5 MID Locations, 1990–2001 34
1.6 State-Level Hot Spots, 1816–2001 40
1.7 State-Level Hot Spots, 1816–1853 41
1.8 State-Level Hot Spots, 1854–1913 41
1.9 State-Level Hot Spots, 1914–1945 42
1.10 State-Level Hot Spots, 1946–1989 42
1.11 State-Level Hot Spots, 1990–2001 43
1.12 Location-Level Hot Spots, 1816–2001 46
1.13 Location-Level Hot Spots, 1816–1853 47
1.14 Location-Level Hot Spots, 1854–1913 47
1.15 Location-Level Hot Spots, 1914–1945 48
1.16 Location-Level Hot Spots, 1946–1989 48
1.17 Location-Level Hot Spots, 1990–2001 48
6.1 Measurement of the Proximity of the Nearest Hot Spot
to Turkey, 2001 115
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List of Tables
1.1 Aggregate and Per Annum Frequencies of State-Level Conflict
Hot Spots, 1816–2001 44
1.2 Aggregate and Per Annum Frequencies of Location-Level Conflict
Hot Spots, 1816–2001 46
3.1 Descriptive Statistics of Dependent and Independent Variables 70
3.2 Regime Type Effects upon Levels of Dispute Participation
and Hosting, 1946–2001 73
4.1 Logistic Regression of Conflict Hot Spot Membership, 1948–2001 87
4.2 Marginal Effects of Statistically Significant Covariates upon Conflict
Hot Spot Membership 89
6.1 Variable Descriptive Statistics and Measurements 112
6.2 Rare Events Logistic Regression of MID Targeting and Hot Spots,
1946–2001 119
6.3 Marginal Effects of Conflict Hot Spots upon Conflict Initiations,
1948–2001 122