Conflict and Growth in Africa : Southern Africa Volume 3

191 Pages·1999·0.66 MB·English

by  OECD

D E V E L O P M E N T C E N T R E S T U D I E S
CONFLICT AND GROWTH
IN AFRICA
Vol. 3: Southern Africa
BY
ANDREW GOUDIE AND BILIN NEYAPTI
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DEVELOPMENT CENTRE STUDIES
CONFLICT AND GROWTH
IN AFRICA
Vol. 3: Southern Africa
By
Andrew Goudie and Bilin Neyapti
DEVELOPMENT CENTRE
OF THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came
into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed:
– to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of
living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the
development of the world economy;
– to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in
the process of economic development; and
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accordance with international obligations.
The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France,
Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries
became Members subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan
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(7th May 1996), Poland (22nd November 1996) and Korea (12th December 1996). The Commission
of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD
Convention).
The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was
established by decision of the OECD Council on 23rd October 1962 and comprises twenty-three
Member countries of the OECD: Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
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nities also takes part in the Centre’s Advisory Board.
The purpose of the Centre is to bring together the knowledge and experience available in
Member countries of both economic development and the formulation and execution of general
economic policies; to adapt such knowledge and experience to the actual needs of countries or
regions in the process of development and to put the results at the disposal of the countries by
appropriate means.
The Centre has a special and autonomous position within the OECD which enables it to enjoy
scientific independence in the execution of its task. Nevertheless, the Centre can draw upon the
experience and knowledge available in the OECD in the development field.
Publie´ en franc¸ais sous le titre :
CONFLITS ET CROISSANCE EN AFRIQUE
Vol. 3 : Afrique australe
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RESPONSIBILITY OF THE AUTHORS AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THOSE OF THE OECD OR OF
THE GOVERNMENTS OF ITS MEMBER COUNTRIES.
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 OECD 1999
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Foreword
This publication is produced in the context of the Development Centre’s work
on seeking ways to integrate poorer countries into the world economy. It results
specifically from the programme entitled “Political Economy and Development in
Africa”. Two other volumes complete the series.
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SouthernAfrica–Mozambique,Malawi,Zambia,ZimbabweandBotswana
TANZANIA
CONGO D.R. Maulungu
Kasama
Soiwezi
Pemba
Kitwe
ZAMBIA Chipata Lilongwe MOZAMBIQUE
Mongu Lusaka SongMoALAWI Nampula
ANGOLA
Kariba Pebane
Harare Quelimane
Livingstone
ZIMBABWE
Beira
NAMIBIA Maun BulawMaaysovingo
Ghanzi Francistown Beitbridge Nova Mambene
BOTSWANA Serowe Vilancuios
Molepolole
Gaborone Inhambane
Xai-Xai
Kanye
Tshabeng
Maputo
SWAZILAND
SOUTH AFRICA
Atlantic LESOTHO Indian
Ocean Ocean
Scale
0 100km
0 100ml
K. Smith
The boundaries and names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the OECD.
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Table of Contents
Acknowledgements............................................................................................................ 6
Preface ....................................................................................................................... 7
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... 9
Chapter 1 An Approach to the Analysis of Conflict...................................................... 15
Annex The Analysis of Public Expenditures............................................................ 35
Chapter 2 Post–Independence Instability in Mozambique............................................ 41
Chapter 3 Political Instability in Post–Independence Zimbabwe ................................. 73
Chapter 4 Political Instability in Zambia: 1964–96...................................................... 95
Chapter 5 Determinants of Political Stability in Botswana: 1966–96 .......................... 125
Chapter 6 Determinants of Political Stability in Malawi: 1964–96.............................. 151
Annex 1Real Rates of Growth and Inflation.............................................................. 174
Annex 2Macroeconomic Indicators............................................................................ 175
Chapter 7 Concluding Remarks..................................................................................... 179
Bibliography....................................................................................................................... 185
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Acknowledgements
The Development Centre would like to express its gratitude to the Government
of Switzerland for the financial support given to the project on “Emerging Africa” in
the context of which this study was carried out.
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Preface
The seminar organised by the Development Centre in 1994 on growth prospects
and the causes of economic stagnation in sub–Saharan Africa underlined the disastrous
effects of the conflicts that have occurred in the region since the 1960s. Many economic
failures in the region have been due to unrest and civil war. These conclusions led the
Centre to undertake a project on the relationship between conflict and growth. This
type of analysis is problematic as it calls upon disciplines far removed from economics;
the ethnic, religious, linguistic, social and economic factors of conflict are so entangled
that it is difficult to obtain a clear idea of the role of economic factors in order to
suggest new economic policies liable to enhance the prevention of conflicts.
This book is an ambitious and courageous analysis, which examines five different
countries, from war–torn Mozambique to peaceful and stable Botswana, over three
decades. In the case of Mozambique, the authors show how internal factors of conflict
mingled with those from outside, since RENAMO was supported, successively, by
Rhodesia and South Africa. They also point out how the FRELIMO government also
bears part of the responsibility through misguided socialist policies, the effects of
which were compounded by RENAMO operations designed to ruin the economy. The
human cost of this conflict was considerable as it resulted in the loss of hundreds of
thousands of lives and provoked the displacement of millions of small farmers.
At the other end of the scale, Botswana has been able to draw the maximum
amount of benefit from its diamond mines by reconciling growth with equity, attaining
exceptional economic performance from which the entire population has been able to
profit. Political stability in the country resulted from the absence of friction between
ethnic or interest groups and from respect for the democratic process. Between these
two extremes, Zimbabwe and Zambia (and Malawi to a lesser degree) represent cases
of serious tensions and political instability due to ethnic conflict and interest–group
rivalry. Minorities have used political power to misappropriate rents, rather than
equitably distributing public expenditure.
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From each country’s history, the reader can begin to understand how political
instability establishes itself within a country and interferes with sustained growth.
This book describes all the factors in play: armed struggle (with conflict between
movements as well as against non–democratic governments); dual socio–economic
structures perpetuated after independence; inequality in asset distribution (land, fixed
or human capital); injustice in the distribution of public services such as education
and health; and the role of foreign actors, as in the case of Mozambique.
The authors’ conclusions are of strong interest because they are based on a strict
economic analysis of the causes of conflict. The authors find that respect for the
democratic process, concern for equality and allowing a free market to develop represent
the best means of ensuring the political stability needed so badly in these African
societies.
Ulrich Hiemenz
Director
OECD Development Centre
September 1999
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