Concepts, Methods and Practical Applications in Applied Demography: An Introductory Textbook

336 Pages·2018·5.35 MB·English

Richard K. Thomas
Concepts, Methods
and Practical
Applications in
Applied
Demography
An Introductory Textbook
Concepts, Methods and Practical Applications
in Applied Demography
Richard K. Thomas
Concepts, Methods
and Practical Applications
in Applied Demography
An Introductory Textbook
123
Richard K.Thomas
Memphis,TN
USA
ISBN978-3-319-65438-6 ISBN978-3-319-65439-3 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65439-3
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Contents
1 Introduction to Applied Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Applied Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 Why Study Demography? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.4 Who Uses Demography?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.5 Demographic Perspectives and Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.6 Major Topics in Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.6.1 Population Size and Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.6.2 Demographic Processes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.6.3 Population Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.7 Settings for Applied Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.8 Objectives of the Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.9 Organization of the Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2 The Methods and Materials of Demography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.1 The Demographic Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.1.1 The Demographics of Birth and Death. . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.1.2 Demographics and Social Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.2 Demographic Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.2.1 Demographic Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.2.2 Estimation and Projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.2.3 Standardization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.2.4 Cohort Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.2.5 Spatial Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.2.6 Epidemiologic Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
v
vi Contents
3 Data Sources for Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.2 Demographic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.2.1 Data Types. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.2.2 Using Demographic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.2.3 Data Timelines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.3 The Importance of Geography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.4 Data Collection Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.5 Census . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.6 Economic Census . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
3.7 Registration Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.7.1 Vital Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.7.2 Immigration Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.8 Surveys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.9 Synthetic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.10 Sources of Data for Demographers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3.10.1 Government Agencies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
3.10.2 Professional Associations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
3.10.3 Private Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
3.10.4 Commercial Data Vendors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.11 Future Prospects for Demographic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4 Population Size, Distribution and Concentration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
4.2 Defining and Measuring Size, Distribution
and Concentration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
4.2.1 Population Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
4.2.2 Population Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
4.2.3 Population Concentration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
4.3 Community Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
5 Population Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
5.2 Compositional Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
5.2.1 Biosocial Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
5.2.2 Sociocultural Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
5.3 Displaying and Analyzing Compositional Variables . . . . . . . . 91
5.3.1 Descriptive Statistics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
5.3.2 Population Pyramids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
5.3.3 Dependency Ratios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
5.3.4 Cohort Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
5.4 Data Standardization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Contents vii
6 Demographic Processes: Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
6.2 Concepts and Measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
6.3 Trends in Fertility in the U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
6.4 Factors Affecting Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
6.5 Data Sources for Fertility Analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
7 Demographic Processes: Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
7.2 Concepts and Measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
7.2.1 Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
7.2.2 Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
7.2.3 Life Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
7.3 Demographic Correlates of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
7.4 Mortality Trends in the U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
7.5 Sources of Mortality Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
8 Demographic Processes: Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
8.2 Migration Concepts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
8.3 Migration Measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
8.4 Migration Patterns in the U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
8.4.1 International Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
8.4.2 Internal Migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
8.5 Sources of Migration Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
9 Population Change and Its Measurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
9.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
9.2 Estimation Techniques. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
9.3 Projection Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
9.4 Generating Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
9.5 The Impact of Population Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
9.6 Data Sources for Population Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
10 Business Demography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
10.2 Spheres of Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
10.2.1 Consumer Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
10.2.2 Product Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
10.2.3 Product Sales/Marketing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
10.2.4 Site Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
10.3 Data Sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
viii Contents
11 Health Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
11.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
11.2 Applications of Demography to the Study of Health
and Healthcare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
11.3 Demographic Processes and Health Demography . . . . . . . . . . 224
11.3.1 Fertility Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
11.3.2 Mortality Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
11.3.3 Morbidity Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
11.4 Measuring Morbidity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
11.5 Standardizing Health Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
11.6 Demographics and Health Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
11.6.1 Biosocial Characteristics and Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
11.6.2 Sociocultural Characteristics and Health. . . . . . . . . . . 245
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
12 Political Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
12.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
12.2 The Demographics and Politics Interface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
12.3 Demographic Correlates of Political Behavior. . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
12.4 Demographic Trends and Political Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
12.5 Sources of Data for Political Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273
12.6 Demography and Public Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
12.7 Examples of Policy Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
12.7.1 Immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
12.7.2 Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
12.7.3 Healthcare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
12.7.4 Education. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
12.7.5 Criminal Justice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
12.7.6 Housing and Community Development . . . . . . . . . . . 281
12.7.7 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
12.7.8 Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
12.8 Direct and Indirect Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
12.9 Factors Influencing Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
12.9.1 Demographic Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
12.10 Intended and Unintended Consequences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289
13 Other Applications of Demographic Concepts, Techniques
and Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
13.1 Educational Demography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
13.2 Educational Demography and Educational Policy . . . . . . . . . . 295
13.3 Criminal Justice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
13.4 Contemporary Issues of Relevance to Demography. . . . . . . . . 299
13.5 Urban Planning and Community Development . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
Contents ix
13.6 Focus Areas for Demographers Involved in Planning
and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304
13.7 Emergency Preparedness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316
Glossary.. .... .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... 319
Index .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... 329
Chapter 1
Introduction to Applied Demography
Abstract This Chapter presents an overview of the field of demography and the
place of applied demography within thebroader context.It tracesthe development
ofapplieddemographyasasub-disciplineandreviewsthefactorsthathavecreated
growing interest in and demand for the application of demographic concepts,
techniques and data inside and outside of academia.
1.1 Introduction
“Demography”comesfromtheGreekandmeans“describingpeople”—“demo”for
peopleand“graphy”towriteaboutaparticulartopic.Alsoreferredtoaspopulation
studies demography seeks toanalyzehuman populations andprofilethem interms
of their salient characteristics and the dynamic processes that influence these
characteristics.
Demography as a distinct field of study has a relatively short history. The term
“demography” was coined in 1855 by Achille Guillard (2010) when he published
Elements de Statistique Humaine ou Demographie Comparee. He combined the
Greek words demos and graphein to create the discipline’s name. To Guillard, the
focusofdemographywasthemathematicalknowledgeofpopulations,theirgeneral
movements, and their physical, civil, intellectual and moral state. His interest in
populationsizeanddistribution,demographicprocessesandpopulationstructureof
a population foretold modern demography.
“Demography”comesfromtheGreekwordsforpeople(demos)andwriting
about (graphe) and refers to the science of describing populations.
While it is appropriate to say that demographers are interested in the charac-
teristics of populations, they are not interested in every characteristic. There is a
certain set of attributes that are the focus of demographic analysis. Demographers
areinterestedincharacteristicsthatarerelevantwithinasocialandculturalcontext.
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R.K.Thomas,Concepts,MethodsandPracticalApplicationsinApplied
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