Complexity in Tsunamis, Volcanoes, and their Hazards (Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science Series) PDF
Preview Complexity in Tsunamis, Volcanoes, and their Hazards (Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science Series)
Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science Series Editor-in-Chief: Robert A. Meyers Robert I. Tilling Editor Complexity in Tsunamis, Volcanoes, and their Hazards A Volume in the Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, Second Edition Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science Series Editor-in-Chief RobertA.Meyers The Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science series of topical vol- umes provides an authoritative source for understanding and applying the concepts of complexity theory, together with the tools and measures for analyzing complex systems in all fields of science and engineering. Many phenomenaatallscalesinscienceandengineeringhavethecharacteristicsof complexsystems,andcanbefullyunderstoodonlythroughthetransdisciplin- aryperspectives,theories,andtoolsofself-organization,synergetics,dynam- ical systems, turbulence, catastrophes, instabilities, nonlinearity, stochastic processes, chaos, neural networks, cellular automata, adaptive systems, genetic algorithms, and so on. Examples of near-term problems and major unknowns that can be approached through complexity and systems science include:Thestructure,historyandfutureoftheuniverse;thebiologicalbasis ofconsciousness;theintegrationofgenomics,proteomicsandbioinformatics assystemsbiology;humanlongevitylimits;thelimitsofcomputing;sustain- abilityofhumansocietiesandlifeonearth;predictability,dynamicsandextent ofearthquakes,hurricanes,tsunamis,andothernaturaldisasters;thedynamics ofturbulentflows;lasersorfluidsinphysics,microprocessordesign;macro- molecularassemblyinchemistryandbiophysics;brainfunctionsincognitive neuroscience; climate change; ecosystem management; traffic management; and business cycles. All these seemingly diverse kinds of phenomena and structure formation have a number of important features and underlying structures in common. These deep structural similarities can be exploited to transferanalyticalmethodsandunderstandingfromonefieldtoanother.This uniqueworkwillextendtheinfluenceofcomplexityandsystemsciencetoa muchwideraudiencethanhasbeenpossibletodate. Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttps://link.springer.com/bookseries/15581 Robert I. Tilling Editor Complexity in Tsunamis, Volcanoes, and their Hazards A Volume in the Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, Second Edition With354Figuresand15Tables Editor RobertI.Tilling VolcanoScienceCenter USGeologicalSurvey MenloPark,USA ISBN978-1-0716-1704-5 ISBN978-1-0716-1705-2(eBook) ISBN978-1-0716-1706-9(printandelectronicbundle) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-0716-1705-2 ©SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC,partofSpringerNature2022 AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialisconcerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformationstorage andretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology nowknownorhereafterdeveloped. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthis publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthors,andtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis bookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernorthe authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressedorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontained hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwith regardtojurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerScience+BusinessMedia, LLC,partofSpringerNature. Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:1NewYorkPlaza,NewYork,NY10004,U.S.A. Series Preface TheEncyclopediaofComplexityandSystemScienceSeriesisamultivolume authoritative source for understanding and applying the basic tenets of com- plexity and systems theory as well as the tools and measures for analyzing complexsystemsinscience,engineering,andmanyareasofsocial,financial, andbusinessinteractions.Itiswrittenforanaudienceofadvanceduniversity undergraduateandgraduatestudents,professors,andprofessionalsinawide range of fields who must manage complexity on scales ranging from the atomicandmoleculartothesocietalandglobal. Complexsystemsaresystemsthatcomprisemanyinteractingpartswiththe abilitytogenerateanewqualityofcollectivebehaviorthroughselforganization, e.g., the spontaneous formation of temporal, spatial, or functional structures. Theyarethereforeadaptiveastheyevolveandmaycontainself-drivingfeed- backloops. Thus, complex systems are much more than a sum oftheir parts. Complexsystemsareoftencharacterizedashavingextremesensitivitytoinitial conditionsaswellasemergentbehaviorthatarenotreadilypredictableoreven completely deterministic. The conclusion is that a reductionist (bottom-up) approachisoftenanincompletedescriptionofaphenomenon. Thisrecognitionthatthecollectivebehaviorofthewholesystemcannotbe simplyinferredfromtheunderstandingofthebehavioroftheindividualcompo- nentshasledtomanynewconceptsandsophisticatedmathematicalandmodel- ingtoolsforapplicationtomanyscientific,engineering,andsocietalissuesthat canbeadequatelydescribedonlyintermsofcomplexityandcomplexsystems. ExamplesofGrandScientificChallengeswhichcanbeapproachedthrough complexity and systems science include: the structure, history, and future of theuniverse;thebiologicalbasisofconsciousness;thetruecomplexityofthe genetic makeup and molecular functioning of humans (genetics and epige- netics)andotherlifeforms;humanlongevitylimits;unificationofthelawsof physics;thedynamicsandextentofclimatechangeandtheeffectsofclimate change;extendingtheboundariesofandunderstandingthetheoreticallimits ofcomputing;sustainabilityoflifeontheearth;workingsoftheinteriorofthe earth;predictability,dynamics,andextentofearthquakes,tsunamis,andother natural disasters; dynamics of turbulent flows and the motion of granular materials;thestructureofatomsasexpressedintheStandardModelandthe formulation of the Standard Model and gravity into a Unified Theory; the structureofwater;controlofglobalinfectiousdiseases;andalsoevolutionand quantification of (ultimately) human cooperative behavior in politics, v vi SeriesPreface economics, business systems, and social interactions. In fact, most of these issues have identified nonlinearities and are beginning to be addressed with nonlinear techniques, e.g., human longevity limits, the Standard Model, cli- mate change, earthquake prediction, workings of the earth’s interior, natural disasterprediction,etc. The individual complex systems mathematical and modeling tools and scientific and engineering applications that comprised the Encyclopedia of ComplexityandSystemsSciencearebeingcompletelyupdatedandthemajor- itywillbepublishedasindividualbookseditedbyexpertsineachfieldwhoare eminentuniversityfacultymembers. Thetopicsareasfollows: AgentBasedModelingandSimulation ApplicationsofPhysicsandMathematicstoSocialScience CellularAutomata,MathematicalBasisof ChaosandComplexityinAstrophysics ClimateModeling,GlobalWarming,andWeatherPrediction ComplexNetworksandGraphTheory ComplexityandNonlinearityinAutonomousRobotics ComplexityinComputationalChemistry ComplexityinEarthquakes,Tsunamis,andVolcanoes,andForecastingand EarlyWarningofTheirHazards ComputationalandTheoreticalNanoscience ControlandDynamicalSystems DataMiningandKnowledgeDiscovery EcologicalComplexity ErgodicTheory FinanceandEconometrics FractalsandMultifractals GameTheory GranularComputing IntelligentSystems NonlinearOrdinaryDifferentialEquationsandDynamicalSystems NonlinearPartialDifferentialEquations Percolation PerturbationTheory ProbabilityandStatisticsinComplexSystems QuantumInformationScience SocialNetworkAnalysis SoftComputing Solitons StatisticalandNonlinearPhysics Synergetics SystemDynamics SystemsBiology Each entry in each of the Series books was selected and peer reviews organized by one of our university-based book Editors with advice and consultationprovidedbyoureminentBoardMembersandtheEditor-in-Chief. SeriesPreface vii This level of coordination assures that the reader can have a level of confidence in the relevance and accuracy of the information far exceeding than that generally found on the World Wide Web. Accessibility is also a priorityandforthisreasoneachentryincludesaglossaryofimportantterms and a concise definition of the subject. In addition, we are pleased that the mathematical portions of our Encyclopedia have been selected by Math ReviewsforindexinginMathSciNet.Also,ACM,theworld’slargesteduca- tional andscientificcomputingsociety,recognizedourComputationalCom- plexity: Theory, Techniques, and Applications book, which contains content takenexclusivelyfromtheEncyclopediaofComplexityandSystemsScience, withanawardasoneofthenotableComputerSciencepublications.Clearly, wehaveachievedprominenceatalevelbeyondourexpectations,butconsis- tentwiththehighqualityofthecontent! PalmDesert,CA,USA RobertA.Meyers August2021 Editor-in-Chief Volume Preface Tsunamis,volcaniceruptions,andearthquakesarenaturalphenomena–often interrelated – produced by the interaction of geophysical and geochemical processesoperativewithinourdynamicEarth.Suchphenomena,ifsufficiently energetic and occurring in populated or cultivated regions, can be highly hazardous to people and societal infra-structure. Thus, the prerequisite for anyeffectiveprogramtomitigatethepotentialrisksposedbynaturalhazardsis the best-possible scientific understanding of the phenomena involved. Tsu- namisoccurwhenalargevolumeofwater(inanoceanoralake)isdisplaced suddenly in response to an impulsive disruption of its normal circulation regime. Most tsunamis are triggered by large plate-boundary, tectonic earth- quakes that involve significant ground displacements, but they also can be generated by submarine landslides and eruption-related impacts, such as volcanoflankorcalderacollapse,ortherapidentryoferuptiveproductsinto water bodies. Major tsunamis can devastate coastal communities, causing many fatalities and widespread massive destruction. For example, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, generated by a magnitude 9.1 earthquake, affected morethanadozencountriesintheregionandkilled~300,000people.Com- paratively speaking, volcanic eruptions generally are less destructive and lethal than tsunamis; the deadliest eruption in recorded history (Tambora Volcano,Indonesia,1815)claimed~60,000fatalities. Well-studiedhistoricalvolcaniceruptionshaveshownthattheyarealmost alwaysprecededandaccompaniedbyprecursoryactivity(alsocalled“volcano unrest”), manifested by above-background seismicity, ground deformation, and/or increased gas emission. Thus, it is essential to conduct volcano- monitoring studies – utilizing seismic, geodetic, and other geophysical or geochemical approaches – to detect the onset of volcano unrest and then to trackitsvaryingbehaviorwithtime.Akeyelementofseismicmonitoringisto characterizethenatureandsourceofthe“volcano-seismic”signals,whichare distinct from those of purely tectonic, nonvolcanic origin. Since the 1970s, muchhasbeenlearnedaboutsuchseismicsignals,andafundamentalgoalof “volcanoseismology”studiesistoseismicallycharacterizetheconfiguration ofactivemagmaticsystemsandtounderstandhowtheyworkbefore,during, andaftereruptions.Datafromvolcano-monitoringstudiesconstitutetheonly scientificallyvalidbasistomakeashort-termforecastoffutureeruptionata volcano currently in repose, or to anticipate possible changes during an ongoingeruptionatanactivevolcano. ix x VolumePreface Withtheemergenceofmodernvolcanologyintheearlytwentiethcentury andtheincreasedscientificdatanowavailable,theriskfromvolcanichazards canbemorepreciselyanticipatedandassessedandbeeffectivelymitigatedby timely warnings and actions by emergency management officials. Likewise, theriskposedbytsunamihazardsisnowbettermitigatedsincetheestablish- ment of several tsunami warning centers, which utilize information from seismic data, sea-level gauges, and buoy stations to generate models that more precisely forecast tsunami arrival times and estimate coastal impacts. Over recent decades, volcano-monitoring networks and tsunami warning systems have increasingly relied on satellite telecommunications, for collectingdataaswellastransmittingalertnotifications.Moreover,advances in computer technology – both hardware and software – have greatly facili- tatedtheacquisitionandprocessingofthedataneededforcomputermodeling oferuptiveandtsunamiprocessesandassociatedhazards. Thechaptersofthisbookprovideaselectivesamplingofrecentstudiesof volcaniceruptionsandtsunamis,andtheyclearlydemonstratethatsubstantial strides have been made in the characterization and understanding of these phenomena, and their associated impacts and hazards. It also should be emphasized that scientific data – regardless of quality or quantity – used to declareforecastsandhazardswarningsmustbecommunicatedeffectivelyto, andacteduponinatimelymannerby,emergencymanagementauthorities.As emphasizedinsomeofthechapters,scientistsstillfacesomemajorchallenges with regard to timely and effective communications of warnings to govern- mentaldecisionmakersandtheaffectedpublic. CA,USA RobertI.Tilling August2021 VolumeEditor
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