Complex Dynamics of Traffic Management PDF
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Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science Series Editor-in-Chief: Robert A. Meyers Boris S. Kerner Editor Complex Dynamics of Traffic Management A Volume in the Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, Second Edition Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science Series Editor-in-Chief RobertA.Meyers The Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science Series of topical volumesprovidesanauthoritativesourceforunderstandingandapplyingthe concepts of complexity theory, together with the tools and measures for analyzing complex systems in all fields of science and engineering. Many phenomenaatallscalesinscienceandengineeringhavethecharacteristicsof complexsystemsandcanbefullyunderstoodonlythroughthetransdisciplin- aryperspectives,theories,andtoolsofself-organization,synergetics,dynam- ical systems, turbulence, catastrophes, instabilities, nonlinearity, stochastic processes, chaos, neural networks, cellular automata, adaptive systems, genetic algorithms, and so on. Examples of near-term problems and major unknowns that can be approached through complexity and systems science include:thestructure,history,andfutureoftheuniverse;thebiologicalbasisof consciousness;theintegrationofgenomics,proteomics,andbioinformaticsas systemsbiology;humanlongevitylimits;thelimitsofcomputing;sustainabil- ityofhumansocietiesandlifeonearth;predictability,dynamics,andextentof earthquakes,hurricanes,tsunamis,andothernaturaldisasters;thedynamicsof turbulentflows;lasersorfluidsinphysics;microprocessordesign;macromo- lecular assembly in chemistry and biophysics; brain functions in cognitive neuroscience; climate change; ecosystem management; traffic management; and business cycles. All these seemingly diverse kinds of phenomena and structure formation have a number of important features and underlying structures in common. These deep structural similarities can be exploited to transferanalyticalmethodsandunderstandingfromonefieldtoanother.This uniqueworkwillextendtheinfluenceofcomplexityandsystemsciencetoa muchwideraudiencethanhasbeenpossibletodate. More information about this series at https://link.springer.com/bookseries/ 15581 Boris S. Kerner Editor Complex Dynamics of Traffic Management A Volume in the Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, Second Edition With408Figuresand26Tables Editor BorisS.Kerner PhysicsofTransportandTraffic UniversityDuisburg-Essen Duisburg,Germany ISBN978-1-4939-8762-7 ISBN978-1-4939-8763-4(eBook) ISBN978-1-4939-8764-1(printandelectronicbundle) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-8763-4 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2019935316 ©SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC,partofSpringerNature2019 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeor part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway, andtransmissionorinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,or bysimilarordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthis publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthors,andtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis bookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernorthe authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontained hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwith regardtojurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerScience+BusinessMedia, LLC,partofSpringerNature. Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:233SpringStreet,NewYork,NY10013,U.S.A. Series Preface TheEncyclopediaofComplexityandSystemScienceSeriesisamultivolume authoritative source for understanding and applying the basic tenets of com- plexity and systems theory as well as the tools and measures for analyzing complexsystemsinscience,engineering,andmanyareasofsocial,financial, andbusinessinteractions.Itiswrittenforanaudienceofadvanceduniversity undergraduateandgraduatestudents,professors,andprofessionalsinawide range of fields who must manage complexity on scales ranging from the atomicandmoleculartothesocietalandglobal. Complexsystemsaresystemsthatcomprisemanyinteractingpartswiththe abilitytogenerateanewqualityofcollectivebehaviorthroughself-organization, e.g., the spontaneous formation of temporal, spatial, or functional structures. Theyarethereforeadaptiveastheyevolveandmaycontainself-drivingfeed- backloops. Thus, complex systems are much more than a sum oftheir parts. Complexsystemsareoftencharacterizedashavingextremesensitivitytoinitial conditionsaswellasemergentbehaviorthatarenotreadilypredictableoreven completely deterministic. The conclusion is that a reductionist (bottom-up) approachisoftenanincompletedescriptionofaphenomenon.Thisrecognition thatthecollectivebehaviorofthewholesystemcannotbesimplyinferredfrom theunderstandingofthebehavioroftheindividualcomponentshasledtomany newconceptsandsophisticatedmathematicalandmodelingtoolsforapplication to many scientific, engineering, and societal issues that can be adequately describedonlyintermsofcomplexityandcomplexsystems. ExamplesofGrandScientificChallengeswhichcanbeapproachedthrough complexity and systems science include: the structure, history, and future of theuniverse;thebiologicalbasisofconsciousness;thetruecomplexityofthe genetic makeup and molecular functioning of humans (genetics and epige- netics)andotherlifeforms;humanlongevitylimits;unificationofthelawsof physics;thedynamicsandextentofclimatechangeandtheeffectsofclimate change;extendingtheboundariesofandunderstandingthetheoreticallimits ofcomputing;sustainabilityoflifeontheearth;workingsoftheinteriorofthe earth;predictability,dynamics,andextentofearthquakes,tsunamis,andother natural disasters; dynamics of turbulent flows and the motion of granular materials;thestructureofatomsasexpressedintheStandardModelandthe formulation of the Standard Model and gravity into a Unified Theory; the structureofwater;controlofglobalinfectiousdiseases;andalsoevolutionand quantification of (ultimately) human cooperative behavior in politics, v vi SeriesPreface economics, business systems, and social interactions. In fact, most of these issues have identified nonlinearities and are beginning to be addressed with nonlinear techniques, e.g., human longevity limits, the Standard Model, cli- mate change, earthquake prediction, workings of the earth’s interior, natural disasterprediction,etc. The individual complex systems mathematical and modeling tools and scientific and engineering applications that comprised the Encyclopedia of ComplexityandSystemsSciencearebeingcompletelyupdatedandthemajor- itywillbepublishedasindividualbookseditedbyexpertsineachfieldwhoare eminentuniversityfacultymembers. Thetopicsareasfollows: AgentBasedModelingandSimulation ApplicationsofPhysicsandMathematicstoSocialScience CellularAutomata,MathematicalBasisof ChaosandComplexityinAstrophysics ClimateModeling,GlobalWarming,andWeatherPrediction ComplexNetworksandGraphTheory ComplexityandNonlinearityinAutonomousRobotics ComplexityinComputationalChemistry Complexity in Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Volcanoes, and Forecasting and EarlyWarningofTheirHazards ComputationalandTheoreticalNanoscience ControlandDynamicalSystems DataMiningandKnowledgeDiscovery EcologicalComplexity ErgodicTheory FinanceandEconometrics FractalsandMultifractals GameTheory GranularComputing IntelligentSystems NonlinearOrdinaryDifferentialEquationsandDynamicalSystems NonlinearPartialDifferentialEquations Percolation PerturbationTheory ProbabilityandStatisticsinComplexSystems QuantumInformationScience SocialNetworkAnalysis SoftComputing Solitons StatisticalandNonlinearPhysics Synergetics SystemDynamics SystemsBiology Each entry in each of the Series books was selected and peer reviews organized by one of our university- or industry-based book Editors with SeriesPreface vii adviceandconsultationprovidedbyoureminentBoardMembersandthe Editor-in-Chief. This level of coordination assures that the reader can have a level of confidence in the relevance and accuracy of the information far exceeding that generally found on theWorldWideWeb.Accessibilityisalso apriority and for this reason each entry includes a glossary of important terms and a concise definition of the subject. In addition, we are pleased that the mathe- maticalportionsofourEncyclopediahavebeenselectedbyMathReviewsfor indexing in MathSciNet. Also, ACM, the world’s largest educational and scientificcomputingsociety,recognizedourComputationalComplexity:The- ory,Techniques,andApplicationsbook,whichcontainscontenttakenexclu- sively from the Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, with an awardasoneofthenotableComputerSciencepublications.Clearly,wehave achievedprominence atalevelbeyond ourexpectations, butconsistentwith thehighqualityofthecontent! PalmDesert,CA,USA RobertA.Meyers March2019 Editor-in-Chief Volume Preface The complexity of vehicular traffic management is associated with the com- plexspatiotemporaldynamicbehaviorofvehiculartraffic.Thespatiotemporal traffic dynamic behavior is mostly associated with the occurrence of traffic breakdown,i.e.,atransitionfromfreeflowtocongestedtrafficinatrafficor transportation network. Congested traffic causes a considerable increase in traveltime,fuelconsumption,CO emission,aswellasothertravelcosts.For 2 thisreason,usersoftrafficandtransportationnetworksexpectthat,throughthe applicationoftrafficmanagement,eithertrafficbreakdowncanbepreventedin a network or, if the latter is not possible, the effect of traffic congestion on travel costs is reduced. Therefore, any traffic and transportation theory and model applied for traffic management should be consistent with empirical featuresoftrafficbreakdownatanetworkbottleneck. Empirical traffic breakdown at a highway bottleneck is a transition from freetrafficflow(F)tosynchronizedtrafficflow(S)(calledanF!Stransition). Synchronizedtrafficflowisoneofthephasesofcongestedtraffic.Themost importantempiricalfeatureoftrafficbreakdowninanetworkisthenucleation natureoftrafficbreakdownfoundinrealfieldtrafficdata.Thetermnucleation natureoftrafficbreakdownmeansthattrafficbreakdownoccursinametasta- blefreeflowwithrespecttoanF!Stransition.Themetastabilityoffreeflow isasfollows.Therecanbemanyspeed(density,flowrate)disturbancesinfree flow.Amplitudesofthedisturbancescanbeverydifferent.Whenadisturbance occurs randomly whose amplitude is larger than a critical one, then traffic breakdown (F!S transition) occurs. Such a disturbance resulting in break- down is called the nucleus for the breakdown. Otherwise, if the disturbance amplitudeissmallerthanthecriticalone,thedisturbancedecays;asaresult,no trafficbreakdownoccurs. Todevelopstrategiesandmethodsfortrafficmanagement,adiversevariety of traffic and transportation theories and models have been introduced and developed.Thesetheoriesandmodelshavehadagreatimpactontheunder- standingofmanyempiricaltrafficphenomenaobservedinrealtraffic.Unfor- tunately,thesegenerallyacceptedclassical(standard)trafficandtransportation theoriesandmodelshavenevertheless failed bytheirapplicationsinthereal world.Evenseveraldecadesofveryintensiveefforttoimproveandvalidate network optimization and control models based on the classical traffic and transportationtheorieshavehadnosuccess.Indeed,noexamplescanbefound where online implementations of the network optimization models based on ix x VolumePreface these classical traffic and transportation theories could reduce congestion in realtrafficandtransportationnetworks. Thisfailureofstandardtrafficandtransportationtheoriescanbeexplained asfollows:Thestandardtrafficandtransportationtheoriesarenotconsistent withthenucleationnatureoftrafficbreakdown(F!Stransition).Thenucle- ationnatureofempiricaltrafficbreakdownwasunderstoodonlyduringthelast 20years.Incontrast,thegenerallyacceptedfundamentalsandmethodologies oftrafficandtransportationtheorywereintroducedinthe1950s–1960s.Thus, thescientistswhoseideasledtotheclassical(standard)trafficandtransporta- tion theories did not appreciate the empirical nucleation nature of traffic breakdown. Respectively, in the 1990s–2010s, the three-phase traffic theory andthebreakdownminimization(BM)principlewereintroduced.Thethree- phase theory explains the empirical nucleation nature of traffic breakdown. The BM principle describes how to maximize the network throughput by preventingtrafficbreakdowninthenetwork. Thestandardtrafficandtransportationtheoriesthatfailedwhenappliedin therealworldarecurrentlythemethodologies ofteaching programs inmost universities and the subject of publications in most transportation research journalsandscientificconferences. Itcouldbeassumedthatthefailureofstandardmethodologiesoftrafficand transportation science for reliable traffic management can be explained by a very long time interval between the development of the classical traffic theories made in the 1950s–1960s and the understanding of the empirical nucleationnatureoftrafficbreakdownatroadbottlenecksmadeattheendof the 1990s. During this long time interval, several generations of traffic researchesdevelopedahugenumberoftrafficflowmodelsandstrategiesfor trafficmanagementbasedontheclassical(standard)approaches.Itturnedout that the three-phase traffic theory is incommensurable with any classical (standard) traffic flow theory. The term incomprehensibility has been intro- ducedbyKuhninhisfamousbookTheStructureofScientificRevolutionsto explainaparadigmshiftinafieldofscience.Inparticular,Kuhn’shistorical analysisshowsthatthereissomecommonbehaviorofaresearchcommunity duringaparadigmshift.FromKuhn’sanalysis,itisunderstandablewhyitis very difficult for most members of the traffic and transportation research community to realize there are empirical traffic phenomena that call into question basically all fundamentals of the standard traffic flow theories and modelsaswellastoacceptthethree-phasetraffictheorysolvingtheproblem. InthisvolumeoftheEncyclopediaofComplexityandSystemsScience,the three-phase traffic theory and standard traffic flow theories as well as their applications for traffic management are discussed in several review articles writtenbyresearchersofdifferentscientificgroups.Inadditiontotheconsid- eration of the complexity of vehicular traffic, the volume includes reviews about pedestrian traffic research and evacuation phenomena as well as air trafficmanagement. Stuttgart,Germany BorisS.Kerner March2019 VolumeEditor
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