Compilation manual for an index of services production [ressource électronique] PDF
Preview Compilation manual for an index of services production [ressource électronique]
Compilation Manual for an Index of Services Production m OECD 2007 CopvnghtMmateri Compilation Manual for an Index of Services Production m OECD ORGANISATIONFORECONOMICCO-OPERATIONANDDEVELOPMENT ORGANISATIONFORECONOMICCO-OPERATION ANDDEVELOPMENT TheOECDisauniqueforumwherethegovernmentsof30democraciesworktogetherto addresstheeconomic,socialandenvironmentalchallengesofglobalisation.TheOECDisalsoat theforefrontofeffortstounderstandandtohelpgovernmentsrespondtonewdevelopmentsand concerns,suchascorporategovernance,theinformationeconomyandthechallengesofan ageingpopulation.TheOrganisationprovidesasettingwheregovernmentscancomparepolicy experiences,seekanswerstocommonproblems,identifygoodpracticeandworktoco-ordinate domesticandinternationalpolicies. TheOECDmembercountriesare:Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,theCzechRepublic, Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Italy,Japan,Korea, Luxembourg,Mexico,theNetherlands,NewZealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,theSlovakRepublic, Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Tlirkey,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates.TheCommissionof theEuropeanCommunitiestakespartintheworkoftheOECD. OECDPublishingdisseminateswidelytheresultsoftheOrganisation’sstatisticsgatheringand researchoneconomic,socialandenvironmentalissues,aswellastheconventions,guidelinesand standardsagreedbyitsmembers. ThisworkispublishedontheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECD.The opinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficial viewsoftheOrganisationorofthegovernmentsofitsmembercountries. AlsoavailableinFrenchunderthetitle; Manuelpourlacompilationd’unindicedeproductiondanslesservices OECD2007 NOdC’ooEepCxyrpDrelipoPgriuhotbtdalutiCcislotheniiaodnrngua,nrdccirogeophiCtyts,[email protected](oiCmreCigCso()sCr,iFbCo2)yn2,2fo2aRr0x,ot3srr3eaunew1so4dloa5edts2iGD4onrr9ia9ovnfed30stD.h-aiAPnsuevgpreuumrsbistls,iiscnMiasoAt,ni70ot1n5o90pm20h3a6o,ytPUaobSrcieAos,,pmyfFaaradxaenp1coewr9,ti7it8foha6nox4uo36tf38tw6h1ri0i4s0t6,wt3oien4nr/k6op7@escrh1om9opi,[email protected]/rlceoispcsiaeetdsi.otcnoosmthsoerhoC(ueflonrdtUrbeSefosrnaelnnyqt)aittsoo FOREWORD ThemainobjectiveoftheOECDCompilationManualforanIndexofSendeesProductionisto fciollmpailgaatpioninofexoiusttpiuntgiinndtiecrantaotrisonfaolrtshteatissetrivciaclesstsaencdtaorrdosffOorECguDidMeleimnbeserancdounrtercioesm.mendationsonthe growtAhsitnhethIentrsoedrvuiccteisonsteocttohreiMnanalulalOEnoCteDs,eocvoenromthieeslasatnsdevaergalrodweicnagdersectohgenriethiaonsbtehaetnisnidgneixfeiscaonft industrialproduction(IIPs)alonearenolongeradequatetoperformtheirhistoricalroleoftracking mostvariationsintotaleconomicoutputoverthecourseofthebusinesscycle.IIPsneedtobe accompaniedbysimilarinformationfortheservicessector. Therehasbeenanimprovementoverrecentyearsintheavailabilityofannual(structural)and short-termeconomicindicators(forexample,producerpriceindicesandturnoverdata)forservicesin manyOECDMembercountries.However,therangeofshort-termindicatorsfortheservicesectorand theircoveragearestillnarrowandthereremainsaneedforadditionalindicatorsthatreflectoverall short-termeconomicphenomenainthatsector.Toalargeextentcostandtheimperativetominimise thereportingburdenofrespondentshavebeenmajorbarriers.Thereisalsothefactthatindicators representingtheservicessectorreceivelessattentionbyeconomicanalystsandpolicymakerswho tendtotreatsuchdataassupplementarysourcesofinformationratherthanaskeyindicatorsintheir ownright. Infulfillingitsmainobjective,thisManualaimstoprovidebothconceptualandpractical recommendations(basedonavailableinputseries)forthecompilationofaproductionindexto measureshort-termeconomicactivityintheservicessector,anindexofservicesproduction(ISP).An ISPwouldprovideeconomicanalystswithinformationthatwouldcomplementanIIPonthe short-termmovementsofaneconomy,andnationalaccountantswithrelevantandtimelyinformation ontheperformanceoftheservicessectorthatcouldbeusedtocompilequarterlynationalaccounts.In PthriosdcuocneterxPtr,itcheeIcnudrirceenstfMoranSueanldeiessdreesciegnnteldytpoubcloimsphledemjoeinnttltyhbeyMethtehoOdEolCoDgiacnaldEGuuriodsetafto.rDeveloping ThisManualwaspreparedbymembersoftheOECDShort-termEconomicStatisticsWorking POaErtCyD(STMEeSmWbPe)rtaskcofuonrtcreieos,nserkveiyces.cAolnttrhiobuugthionitshaswebreneefitperdovfirdoemdinpbuytrecMerivedRforbommPainkye (UnitedKingdom),MrThomasZabelsky(UnitedStates)andMrBernardLefranfois(Canada).Onthe OECDside,MrEun-PyoHongandMrBenoitAmaudweretheprincipalauthors. OECIDtirsehgoiopnedantdhatbetyhoenMda.nAunalewlielcltraodnivcanvceerstihoendiesvaevlaoiplmabelnetoonfotuhetpOutEiCndDicwaetbosristfeo.rIsteirsviace“sliivnintgh”e documentthatwillbeamendedandupdatedtoincorporaterelevantnewnationalexperiencesinthe pdreovveildoepmteenchtniocfalsuacdhviincdeictaotoarsssisatndMe/morbekerycionupnuttriseesriaesn.dTnoonth-imseemnbd,ertheecOonEoCmiDeswowuilthdinbethweillOiEngCtDo programmeofworkundertakingsuchdevelopments. EnricoGiovannini ChiefStatisticianand DirectoroftheStatisticsDirectorate OECD Paris COMPILATIONMANUALFORANINDEXOFSERVICEPRODUCTION-ISBN9789264034433-©OECD2007 3 91111 TABLEOFCONTENTS FOREWORD 11..21 NIneteerdnaatnidonaailmesfffoorrtsintdoicmaetaosrsuroefsshhoorrtt--tteennnnsseerrvviicceesspprroodduuccttiioonnactivities 77 1.3 PurposeanduseoftheManual 9 1.4 OrganisationoftheManual 10 SECTION2:INFRASTRUCTURE II 2J Statisticalunits 1 2.1.1Definition 1 2.1.2Varioustypesofstatisticalunits 12 2.1.3Preferredstatisticalunits 14 2.2 Classification 14 2.2.1ClassificationsusedbyOECDcountries 14 2.2.3ConcordancebetweenfSICRev.3.1andI.SICRev.4 1^ SECTION3:TERMINOLOGIESFORINDEXOFSERVICESPRODUCTION 17 3.1 TerminologiesrelatedtoISP 18 3.1.1.Servicesactivities 18 3.1.2MarketandNon-marketservices 1 3J.3DefinitionofISP 21 3.2 Typesanddefinitionsofvariablestomeasureservicesproduction 22 3.2.1Deflatedgrossoutput 22 3.2.2Otherrelevantvariahles 23 SECTION4:SOURCESANDMETHODSFORCOMPILINGANISP 27 44..21 DEevsaclruiapttiioonnoofft“hPerseufietiaTbeidl"it,y“oAfltdeartnaatsiovuer”ceasnadn“dOmtheetrh”odmsethodsforcompilinganISP.2287 4.3 Criteriaforconceptualappropriateness 3 4.4 Recommendationsforvariablesanddeflatorsbyservicesactivity 31 4.4.1Proposedcriteriafordecidingconceptuallyappropriateindicators 31 4.4.2Deflation 34 4.4.3Recommendedvariablesanddeflatorsandtheirsources 37 SECTION.5:INDEXCOMPILATION 39 55..11.1TLyasppeesyroefsi,ndPiacaesscheandFisherindices 439 5.1.2RecommendationsforfSPcompilation 44 5.2 Transformationofinputdata 46 5.2.1Managingproblemsininputdata 46 5.2.2Adjustment 51 5.3 Consolidation 53 5.3.1Weighting 53 5.3.2ComparabilitywithGDP 55 5.3.3OverallqualityassessmentofISPs 57 COMPILATIONMANUALFORANINDEXOFSERVICEPRODUCTION-ISBN97892640.344.33-®OECD2007 5 5.4 Procedurescarriedoutatvariouscompilationstages 60 5.4.1Overviewofthecompilationprocess 60 5.4.2Pre-processing 61 5.4.-^4-digitand3-digitlevels 64 5.4.42-digitand1-digitlevels 67 5.4.5EvaluationoftheusefulnessoftheManual 69 .SECTIONft:PRESENTATIONANDDIS.SRMINATION 71 6J PresentationofISPs 71 6.1.1Presentationasanindex 71 6.1.2Eormofpresentation 72 6.2 Disseminationtousers 75 ANNEXES 79 ANNEX1:A(ULSIISNTGOUFKPPRROAPCOTSIECDEDAESFALNATEOXRASMPLE) 80 ANDTHEIRSOURCES 84 6 COMPILATIONMANUALFORANINDEXOFSERVICEPRODUCTION-ISBN9789264034433-®OECD2007 SECTION1:INTRODUCTION 1.1Needandaimsforindicatorsofshort-termservicesproduction 1. Indexesofindustrialproductionandrelatedcapacityindexesandutilizationrates,have traditionallybeenusedtotrackshort-tennchangesineconomicactivity.Astheindustrialsectorand constructionhavehistoricallyaccountedformostvariationsintotaloutputoverthecourseofthe businesscycle,policymakersandbusinessanalystshaveusedthesemeasurestoobjectivelyassessthe needfor,andimpactof,awiderangeofpublicpolicydecisions. 2. Afundamentalshift,however,hasoccurredintheeconomiesofOECDMembercountries overthelastseveraldecades.Fuelledbythegrowthofnewtechnologiesandanincreasinglyliberal globaltradingenvironment,servicesareaccountingforalargerandeverincreasingshareoftotal economicactivity.Theextemalizationofroutineservicesbymanufacturersandthedevelopmentof newhighvalue-addedbusinessserviceshavefurtherfuelledthistransitionandhaveincreasedeach sector’sdependenceontheother.Asaresult,thereisagrowingrecognitionthatindexesofindustrial production(IIPs)alonearenolongeradequatetoevaluatetheshort-termperformanceofanentire economyandneedtobeaccompaniedbysimilarinformationfortheservicessector. 3. Flowingonfromthis,thetwomainaimsforcompilingashort-termindicatorforservices productionaretoprovide: • economicanalystswithinformationthatwouldcomplementanIIPontheshort-term movementofaneconomy;and • nationalaccountantswithrelevantandtimelyinformationontheperformanceoftheservices sectortobeusedincompilingquarterlynationalaccounts. 1.2Internationaleffortstomeasureshort-termservicesproductionactivities 4. Ingeneral,servicesdataarelessdetailedandavailablelessfrequentlythandataforthe goods-producingsectoroftheeconomiesofOECDMembercountries.Thisimbalancehasitsorigins fromaperiodwhengoodsproductionisthelargerandmorerapidlygrowingpartofMembers’ non-farmeconomies.Themorecyclicalnatureofgoodsproduction,therapidpaceoftechnological changeinmanufacturing,andtheimportanceofmerchandisetradeininternationaltransactions prolongedthissituation. 5mo.reaccuMraatneyviOeEwCoDfsMhoermtb-teernncoeucnotnrioemsi,chpohweevneorm,enhaavienrtehecierntsleyrvmiacedsessecitgonrisf.icSanotmeeffhoarvtsetdoeovbetlaoipneda moredetailedstatisticsforservicesandenhancedthequalityofexistingseries.TheUnitedKingdom Ir(enUvdKie)sx,edoffotrhDeiiisnrtsrtmiabonuncteti,holnh,yaswSheiirncvtihrcoecdsouvceAecrdtsiaCvniatteyxepgIeonrrdiyemxeGnt(oaSflAIIm)SoInCwthRhielcvyh.ih3n.add1e.xTbohefeensReeirpnvtuircbeolsdiuc(cleoodfS)Kionbrytehaeex(plKaaotnerdeia1n9)g80hisat.ss CanadahasworkedtoimprovethequalityofmonthlyGDPbyenhancingitsservicesdata;andthe United States recently introduced a new quarterly services survey covering information, communications,andtechnology-intensiveindustries-itsfirstnewprincipleeconomicindicatorin overthirtyyears.Finally,theStatisticalOfficeoftheEuropeanCommunities,Eurostat,nowrequires COMPILATIONMANUALFORANINDEXOFSERVICEPRODUCTION-ISBN9789264034433-®OECD2007 7 EuropeanUnionmemberstatestocollectawiderangeofturnoverdatafortheservicessectorona regularbasis. 6. Despitetheseandothersimilareffortselsewhere,indicatorsrepresentingtheservicessector have,todate,receivedlessattentionbyeconomicanalystsandpolicymakers.Suchuserstendtotreat thesedataassupplementarysourcesofinformation.Possibleexplanationsinclude: • Thetypesandrangeofindicatorsavailablefortheservicessectorarestillverylimitedand varysignificantlyfromcountrytocountry. • Serviceindicatorsarelesscomparablebetweencountriesthanthosefortheindustrialsector, dueinparttoanabsenceofinternationalguidelinesfortheirdevelopment. • Thereisalonglaginenhancingthestatisticalenvironmenttocollectthenecessary informationfortheservicessectorsinceservicescoverawiderangeofeconomicactivities. Thisarisesfrominherentcharacteristicsoftheservicessectoritself,suchasthelarge proportionofsmallandmediumsizedestablishmentsthatenterandleavethemarket frequently,makingitdifficulttoidentifyandmaintainanaccuratepopulationframe. Similarly,servicesmaybeperformedasasecondaryactivityofmanufacturingorbyother non-serviceestablishments. • Thebeliefthatindicatorsofthistypedonot"really"approximatethemonthlyvalueaddedof thesesectors. 7. TheOECDShort-termEconomicStatisticsWorkingParty(STESWP)taskforceonservices o(fTFiSs)suewsascocnrceeartneidnigns2u0pp0l2ytaonwdodrekmoanndthienidsiscuaetsorosuftolrinsehdoratb-otveer.mAslertvhiocuegshacittitviotuicehseidnoOnEaCwDidMeemrabnegre countries,theTFSwasparticularlyinterestedinissuesrelatedtothecompilationofaproductionindex tomeasureshort-termeconomicactivitiesintheservicessector.InthisManualtheindicatoris referredtoasan“IndexofServicesProduction(ISP)”. 8. TheTFSsoughttoidentifythemostpreferredandpracticalmethodologies forthe compilationofamonthlyISP.Itidentifiedthemostsuitablevariablestomeasurevariousservices activities,andformulatedrecommendationstoharmonisethedefinitionsandtitlesofkeyvariablesfor amonthlyISP.TheoutcomesfromthisworkareembodiedinthisManual.AsfortheIIP,theISPisa grossoutputindexwithvalue-addedweights.Sincecoherenceandconsistencywiththenational accountsisahigh-priorityobjectiveoftheISP,aggregationsofrealgrossvalueaddedwouldbethe conceptuallypreferredmeasureratherthanrealgrossoutputinconstructingtheindex.TheManual, however,recognizesthegenerallackofavailableshort-termmeasuresofgrossvalueaddedby industryinmakingitsrecommendations. 9. TheManualalsorecommendstheuseofawidevarietyofgrossoutputpriceindexesfor computingthepreferreddeflatedgrossoutputmeasures.Again,forconsistencywiththenational accounts,thepreferreddeflatorwouldordinarilybeagrossvalueaddedpriceindexthatreflectsthe differencebetweengrossoutputpricesandintermediateinputprices.Grossoutputpriceindexes generallyaregoodproxiesforgrossvalueaddedpriceindexes,however,sincegrossoutputand intermediateinputpriceindexesarehighlycorrelated.Somedistortionscouldhoweverarisewith sharpfluctuationsinthepriceofenergyinputsorotherrawmaterialsthatarenotfullyreflectedinthe grossoutputpriceindex.Inmakingitsrecommendations,theManualrecognizesthedifficultyin developingmonthlygrossvalueaddedpriceindexesandthegeneralabsenceofthesemeasures. COMPILATIONMANUALFORANINDEXOFSERVICEPRODUCTION-ISBN9789264034433-©OECD2007
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