Comparing combat models using analytical surrogates.

104 Pages·1.2 MB·en_US

by  Green, John R.;Barr, Donald Roy.

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
Monterey, California
THESIS
Comparing CombatModels UsingAnalytical Surrogates
by
Captain John R. Green, U.S. Army
June, 1991
Thesis Advisor: Donald R. Barr
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
T256950

Unclassified
SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOFTHISPAGE
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE
1a REPORTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION 1b RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS
UNCLASSIFIED
2a SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONAUTHORITY 3 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYOFREPORT
Approvedfor publicrelease;distributionisunlimited.
2b DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADINGSCHEDULE
4 PERFORMINGORGANIZATION REPORTNUMBER(S) 5 MONITORINGORGANIZATIONREPORTNUMBER(S)
6a NAMEOF PERFORMINGORGANIZATION 6b OFFICESYMBOL 7a NAMEOFMONITORINGORGANIZATION
NavalPostgraduateSchool (Ifapplicable) NavalPostgraduateSchool
38
6c ADDRESS(City,State,andZIPCode) 7b ADDRESS(C/ty,State,andZIPCode)
Monterey,CA 93943 5000 Monterey,CA 93943-5000
8a.NAMEOFFUNDING/SPONSORING 8b OFFICESYMBOL 9 PROCUREMENTINSTRUMENTIDENTIFICATION NUMBER
ORGANIZATION (Ifapplicable)
8c ADDRESS(City,State,andZIPCode) 10 SOURCEOFFUNDING NUMBERS
ProgramElementNo ProjectNo IaskNo WorkUnitAccession
Number
11 TITLE(IncludeSecurityClassification)
COMPARINGCOMBATMODELSUSINGANALYTICALSURROGATES
12 PERSONALAUTHOR(S) GREEN,JOHNR.
13a.TYPEOFREPORT 13b TIME COVERED 14 DATEOFREPORT(year,month,day) 15 PAGE COUNT
Master'sThesis From To JUNE 1991 91
16 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION
TheviewsexpressedinthisthesisarethoseoftheauthoranddonotreflecttheofficialpolicyorpositionoftheDepartmentofDefenseortheU.S.
Government.
17 COSATICODES 18 SUBJECTTERMS(continueonreverseifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber)
FIELD GROUP SUBGROUP CombatModels,SimulatedAnnealing,Regression,DifferenceEquations,Stochastic Models
19 ABSTRACT(continueonreverseifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber)
Thewidespreadavailabilityofinexpensivehigh-speedcomputershasledtothedevelopmentofcomplex,detailedtechnicalmodelsofcombat.
Thesehighresolutioncomputersimulationsandwargamesaretoutedbytheirproponentsaslow-costalternaticestoextensive,high-costfield
trainingexercisesforthetrainingofcombatleaders. Thevalidityofthesesimulationsasmodelsofcombat,andthusasusefultrainingtoolsis
unproven. Directcomparisonofsimulationswithfieldtrainingexercisesisoftenfrustratedbytheinherentcomplexitiesineach,andtheshortage
ofqualitydatafromfieldexercises. Thisthesisexaminesthefeasibilityofcomparingthesesystemsindirectlythroughtheuseofsurrogate
analyticalmodels. Asimplediscretetimestochasticsurrogatemodelisexamined. Techniquesforusingthesurrogatemodeltocomparebattle
dataarestudiedusingsimulateddatafromasimplecombatmodel. Areasforfurtherresearcharediscussed.
20 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYOFABSTRACT 21 ABSTRACTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION
FKunclassieied/unlimited J sameasreport J dticusers UNCLASSIFIED
22a NAMEOF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL 22b TELEPHONE(IncludeAreacode) 22c OFFICESYMBOL
DONALDR.BARR 408646-2763 MA/BA
DD FORM 1473,84 MAR 83APReditionmaybeuseduntilexhausted SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOFTHISPAGE
Allothereditionsareobsolete UNCLASSIFIED
Approved for public Release; distribution is unlimited
Comparing Combat Models
Using Analytical Surrogates
by
John R. Green
Captain, United States Army
B.S., Siena College, 1981
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degrees of
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH
and
MASTERS OF SCIENCE IN APPLIED MATHEMATICS
from the
ABSTRACT
The widespread availability of inexpensive high-speed computers has led to
the development of complex, detailed, technical models of combat. These high
resolution computer simulations andwargames are touted bytheirproponents as low-
cost alternatives to extensive, high-cost field training exercises for the training of
combat leaders. The validity of these simulations as models of combat, and thus as
useful training tools is unproven. Direct comparison ofsimulationswith field training
exercises is often frustrated by the inherent complexities in each, and the shortage
of quality data from field exercises. This thesis examines the feasibility ofcomparing
A
these systems indirectly through the use of surrogate analytical models. discrete
mathematical surrogate model is examined, and used to generate probability surfaces
We
for comparison. consider several techniques of fitting surrogate models to
combat data, includingsimulated annealing, steepest descent, and multiple regression.
Areas for further research are discussed.
m
fU>0/^
/
Q72&
THESIS DISCLAIMER
The Reader is cautioned that computer programs developed in this research may not have
been exercised for all cases of interest. While every effort has been made, within the time
available, to ensure that the programs are free of computational and logic errors, they can
not be considered validated. Any application of these programs without additional
verification is at the risk of the user.