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OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,6/5/2019,SPi Comparative Grand Strategy OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,6/5/2019,SPi OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,6/5/2019,SPi Comparative Grand Strategy A Framework and Cases Edited by Thierry Balzacq Peter Dombrowski Simon Reich 1 OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,6/5/2019,SPi 3 GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries ©OxfordUniversityPress2019 Themoralrightsoftheauthorshavebeenasserted FirstEditionpublishedin2019 Impression:1 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicenceorundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographics rightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016,UnitedStatesofAmerica BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Dataavailable LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2018968022 ISBN 978–0–19–884084–8(hbk.) ISBN 978–0–19–884085–5(pbk.) Printedandboundby CPIGroup(UK)Ltd,Croydon,CR04YY LinkstothirdpartywebsitesareprovidedbyOxfordingoodfaithand forinformationonly.Oxforddisclaimsanyresponsibilityforthematerials containedinanythirdpartywebsitereferencedinthiswork. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,6/5/2019,SPi ■ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Large, collaborative projects always require an abundance of goodwill to achieve their goals. That becomes even more emphatic when the project attempts to develop a novel research program rather than address questions inthemorecomfortableintellectualconfinesofawell-establishedone.Spon- sors require just a little more faith in allocating funds. Participants have to demonstrate a little more intellectual flexibility and dexterity when they ask questions like “what is the working definition of a grand strategy?” and the organizers’ answer is “well, it depends.” And administrators must show an even greater amount of patience dealing with the requisites of people assem- bledinatrulyglobalprojectwhentheyaredrawnfromfourcontinents. Under these circumstances, we, the organizers, have been very fortunate. We found generous sponsors who were willing to support two workshops, heldontwocontinents,inthesameyear,andasetofscholarswillingtomove beyond their comfort zones in exploring the relationship between inter- nationalrelationstheoryandareastudiesinanewway. ThefirstworkshopheldinNamur,BelgiuminJune2017,wasconvenedby Thierry Balzacq. Thierry wishes to acknowledge the Research Council of the University of Namur, and specifically both Christine Culot (Director of the Research Council) and former Vice-Rector Martine Raes who provided a generous grant to fund the workshop. The Francqui Foundation, the Faculty ofEconomics,SocialSciencesandManagement,andtheDepartmentofSocial and Political Science also offered financial assistance. Thierry also thanks BenjaminPuybareau,Nicole Desneux,andKarinDerochettefortheirinvalu- ablelogisticalsupportinorganizingthatgatheringofscholars.Finally,Thierry acknowledgestheAsia-PacificCollegeofDiplomacyattheAustralianNational Universityforhostinghimduringhissabbaticalin2017–18,whichenabledhim toundertaketheco-editorshipofthevolumeinidealcircumstances. Peter Dombrowski convened the second workshop at the US Naval War College (NWC) in Newport, Rhode Island in October 2017. Peter wishes to thank the Naval War College Foundation, the Strategic and Operational Research Department (SORD), and the Center of Naval Warfare Studies (CNWS)fortheirsupport.Andrew“Drew”WinnerandJacquelynSchneider moderated panels, while colleagues from across the NWC shared insights from their own experience and research. Among the many individuals who workedbehindthescenestomakethesecondworkshopasuccesswereMike Sherlock,JohnOdegaard,andWendySkinner.AsalwaystheNWCleadership from Rear Admiral Jeff Harley, Provost Lewis Duncan, CNWS Dean Tom OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,6/5/2019,SPi vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Culora, to SORD chair Andrew Winner provided expert leadership. Most importantly, Rachael Shaffer labored long and hard to coordinate arrange- ments for participants and guests from across the NWC, the United States, and the world; she also expertly edited multiple versions of the entire manu- script. Peter would like to thank his fellow editors Simon and Thierry, and Ariane Chebel d’Appollonia for hosting several visits to New Jersey, and, of course,AnnMartinoforherunwaveringfaith. SimonReichwishestothankbothPeterandThierryforrelievinghimofthe task of organizing the two workshops, the Gerda Henkel Foundation for its generous support of his work on this project, the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM) in Paris for hosting him while working on this project during his sabbatical in 2018, and Ariane Chebel d’Appollonia for providing himwithalltheperspectiveheneededonthesignificanceofhiswork. Finally,inadditiontotwoworkshops,theeditorsalsoorganizedaseriesof panels at the International Studies Association Annual Meetings, beginning in2016.Participants,inadditiontothecontributorstothisvolume,included RobertArt,HalBrands,ShaunBreslin,ColinDueck,StevenF.Jackson,Bruce Jentleson, and Andrew Ross. They asked important and probing questions, forcing the editors and authors to refine their ideas and better articulate the issuescriticalforthinkingaboutComparativeGrandStrategy. Withcontributionsfrom AndrewS.Erickson C.ChristineFair DanielFiott GhaidaaHetou RobertJohnson CélineMarangé CarlosR.S.Milani TiagoNery WendyRamadan-Alban NorrinM.Ripsman EitanShamir LuisSimón OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,6/5/2019,SPi ■ CONTENTS LISTOFCONTRIBUTORS ix 1 Introduction:ComparingGrandStrategiesintheModernWorld 1 ThierryBalzacq,PeterDombrowski,andSimonReich PARTI MAJORPOWERS 2 TheUnitedStatesofAmerica 25 PeterDombrowskiandSimonReich 3 Russia 50 CélineMarangé 4 China 73 AndrewS.Erickson 5 France 99 ThierryBalzacq 6 UnitedKingdom 123 RobertJohnson PARTII PIVOTALPOWERS 7 Brazil 149 CarlosR.S.MilaniandTiagoNery 8 India 171 C.ChristineFair 9 Iran 192 ThierryBalzacqandWendyRamadan-Alban 10 Israel 217 EitanShamir 11 SaudiArabia 239 GhaidaaHetou 12 TheEuropeanUnion 262 DanielFiottandLuisSimón 13 Conclusion:TheEmergingSub-fieldofComparativeGrandStrategy 284 NorrinM.Ripsman BIBLIOGRAPHY 303 INDEX 339 OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,6/5/2019,SPi OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,6/5/2019,SPi ■ LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS Editors Thierry Balzacq is Professor of International Relations at Sciences Po Paris and Professorial Fellow at CERI-Sciences-Po. He was formerly a Visiting Fellow at the Asia-PacificCollegeofDiplomacyattheAustralianNationalUniversity(2017–18).In 2016, he was awarded a Francqui Research Chair (Belgium’s highest academic title) and elected Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He was the Scientific Director of the French Ministry of Defense’s research center(2014–16).AformerPostdoctoralFellowatHarvard,BalzacqheldanHonorary ProfessorialFellowshipattheUniversityofEdinburgh,wherehewasalsoFellowfor “outstanding research” at the Institute for Advanced Studies in the Humanities. In 2015,hewasawardedaTier1CanadaResearchChairinDiplomacyandInternational Security. “Tier 1 Chairs are for outstanding researchers acknowledged by their peers as world leaders in their fields.” His articles have been published in Review of International Studies, Security Studies, European Journal ofInternational Security, International Studies Review, Cooperation and Conflict, European Journal of Inter- national Relations, Security Dialogue, International Relations, and the Journal of Common Market Studies. He is author/editor of over twelve books in English and French. He has held visiting positions at various universities, including McGill, the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, the National University of Singapore (NUS), The InternationalRelationsInstituteofCameroon(IRIC),Aberystwyth,andtheUniversity AbdouMoumouniofNiamey(Niger).Heiscurrentlyco-editing(withRonaldKrebs) TheOxfordHandbookofGrandStrategy.BalzacqholdsaPhDfromtheUniversityof CambridgeandcompletedhisPostdoctoralstudiesatHarvardin2004. PeterDombrowskiisaProfessorofStrategyintheStrategicandOperationalResearch DepartmentaswellastheDirectoroftheCyberandInnovationPolicyInstituteatthe Naval War College. His prior positions include Chair of the Strategic Research Department,DirectoroftheNavalWarCollegePress,editoroftheNavalWarCollege Review, co-editor of International Studies Quarterly, Associate Professor of Political ScienceatIowaStateUniversity,anddefenseanalystatANSER,Inc.Hehasalsobeen affiliated with research institutions including the East-West Center, The Brookings Institution,theFriedrichEbertFoundation,andtheWatsonInstituteforInternational Studies at Brown University. Dr Dombrowski is the author of over sixty books, monographs,articles,bookchapters,andgovernmentreports.Dombrowski’sawards include a Chancellor’s Scholarship for Prospective Leaders from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Navy Meritorious Civilian Service Medal, and the Navy DistinguishedCivilianServiceMedal.HereceivedhisBAfromWilliamsCollegeand anMAandPhDfromtheUniversityofMaryland. SimonReichisaProfessorintheDivisionofGlobalAffairsandDepartmentofPolitical Science at Rutgers, Newark and a Chercheur Associé at the Centre de Recherches Internationales (CERI), Sciences Po (Paris). Reich is author, coauthor and editor of