Communications After ad2000

259 Pages·1993·4.398 MB·English

by  I. D. T. Vallance (auth.), D. E. N. Davies, C. Hilsum, A. W. Rudge (eds.)

Communications After AD2000
Technology in the Third Millennium
1. The Treatment and Handling of Wastes
Edited by AD. Bradshaw, Sir Richard Southwood and
Sir Frederick Warner
2. A Global Strategy for Housing in the Third Millennium
Edited by W.A Allen, R.G. Courtney, E. Happold and
Sir Alan Muir Wood
3. Communications After AD2000
Edited by D.E.N. Davies, C. Hilsum and AW. Rudge
First edition 1993
© 1993 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Chapman & HaU in 1993
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1993
Typeset in 10/12 pt Times by Excel Typesetters Company
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or criticism or review, as permitted under the UK Copyright Designs and
Patents Act, 1988, this publication may not be reproduced, stored, or
transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in
writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction only
in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright
Licensing Agency in the UK, or in accordance with the terms of licences
issued by the appropriate Reproduction Rights Organization outside the
UK. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the terms stated here
should be sent to the publishers at the London address printed on this
page.
The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard
to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot
accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that
maybe made.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data
Communications after AD2000 / edited by D.E.N. Davies, C. Hilsum, and
A.W. Rudge. -lst ed.
p. cm. - (Technology in the third millenium; 3)
Based on a meeting of the Royal Society.
Inc1udes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-4613-6338-5 ISBN 978-1-4615-3066-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4615-3066-4
1. Telecommunication - Congresses. 1. Davies, D.E.N.
II. Hilsum, Cyril. III. Rudge, A.W. (Alan W.) IV. Royal Society
(Great Britain) V. Series.
TK5101.C6576 1993
384 - dc20 92-46391
CIP
Communications
After AD2000
Edited by
D.E.N. Davies,
C. Hilsum and
A.W. Rudge
Published by Chapman & HaU for The Royal Society
le I
1)
SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA. B. V.
Contents
Contributors ix
Preface xiii
1 Global strategies 1
I. D. T. Vallance
2 The American scene 9
I.S. Mayo
3 Future technological developments and their impact 19
G. Tenzer
4 The Japanese scene 31
I. Toda 31
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Japanese telecommunication market 32
4.3 Applications 33
4.4 Services 36
4.5 Networks 36
4.6 Conclusion 43
References 44
5 From telephony to information networking - renovating the
telecommunications infrastructure 45
G.J. Handler
5.1 The age of information 45
5.2 The changing environment 46
VI Contents
5.3 Network of the future 48
5.4 Turning opportunities into success 50
5.5 Challenges 55
References 56
6 Social implications 57
I. Miles
6.1 Prologue: January 1st 2001 57
6.2 Communications and social change 58
6.3 New communications opportunities 65
6.4 Implications of change 67
6.5 Conclusions 74
References 75
7 The impact of networks on financial services: the reality of
electronic banking 77
1. De Fea
7.1 Introduction 77
7.2 Technology developments 78
7.3 The technology potential 79
7.4 Life and work in the information age 81
7.5 The financial services industry 85
7.6 Organizational impact 90
8 Impact of regulations on communications 93
Sir Bryan Cars berg
9 Communications strategy - the impact of market forces,
regulation and technology 103
N. W. Horne
9.1 Introduction 103
9.2 Market forces 104
9.3 High capability communications 108
9.4 Defining communications strategy 110
9.5 Strategy implementation 113
9.6 What needs to be done 114
9.7 Conclusions 115
10 Architecture, technology and applications 117
M. Ward
10.1 Introduction 117
10.2 Bridging distance and adding value 118
10.3 The architecture of the distance domain 119
Contents Vll
10.4 ATM 121
10.5 Optics 124
10.6 Satellite mobile radio 127
10.7 Adding value 129
10.8 Applications of the technology: some possible new
servIces 132
11 Mobile communications in the 21st century 135
R. Steele
11.1 Introduction 135
11.2 The current scene in mobile communications 136
11.3 Predictions for mobile communications by the year 2020 140
11.4 Predictions for mobile communication by the year 2050 143
11.5 Predictions for mobile communications by the end of the
21st century 146
References 147
12 Broadcasting after AD2000 149
C. P. Sandbank
12.1 Introduction 149
12.2 Compatible enhancements using DATV - digitally
assisted television 150
12.3 Digital sound broadcasting 157
12.4 Digital television broadcasting 161
12.5 The digital network 167
12.6 A universal approach to digital television 169
12.7 Conclusion 174
Acknowledgements 174
References 174
13 Optical switching 177
J. E. Midwinter
13.1 Introduction 177
13.2 Optical attributes relevant to switching 179
13.3 The switching problem 181
13.4 Examples of optical switching technology? 184
13.5 System implications 193
13.6 Summary 197
References 198
14 Broadband fibre 201
T. R. Rowbotham
14.1 Introduction 201
Vlll Contents
14.2 Current progress 202
14.3 Services 206
14.4 Technology 207
14.5 Conclusion 212
Acknowledgements 213
References 213
15 Why software engineering at a communications meeting? 215
C.A.R. Hoare
16 Improving communications at the desktop 225
A. Hopper
16.1 Multi-media communication systems 225
16.2 Desktop camera 227
16.3 Desktop information 235
16.4 The active office environment 239
Acknowledgements 243
References 243
Index 245
Contributors
Sir Bryan Carsberg
Director General
Oft el
Export House
50 Ludgate Hill
London
EC4M 7JJ
Joseph De Feo
Chief Executive, Information Technology and Service Businesses Division
Barclays Bank PLC
Johnson Smirke Building
4 Royal Mint Court
London EC3N 4HJ
Dr Gary J. Handler
Vice President
Information Networking Service
Bellcore
331 Newman Springs Road
Redbank
NJ 07701-7030
USA
Professor C.A.R. Hoare, FRS
Computing Laboratory
Oxford University
8-11 Keble Road
Oxford OX1 3QD
x Contributors
Dr Nigel W. Horne
KPMG Management Consulting
P.O. Box 695
8 Salisbury Square
London EC4Y 8BB
Dr. Andy Hopper
University of Cambridge
Computer Laboratory
New Museums Site
Pembroke St.
Cambridge CB2 30G
and Olivetti Research Limited
Old Addenbrookes Site
24a Trumpington Street
Cambridge CB2 lOA
Dr. John S. Mayo
President
AT&T Bell Laboratories
101 John F. Kennedy Parkway
P.O. Box 1101
Short Hills
NJ 07078-0996
USA
John E. Midwinter FEng, FRS
Pender Professor and Head of Department
Department of electronic and
Electrical Engineering
University College London
Torrington Place
London WC1E 7JE
Professor Ian Miles
PREST
Programme of Policy Research in Engineering Science & Technology
The University
Manchester M13 9PL
Dr T.R. Rowbotham
Director, Network Technology
BT Development and Procurement
BT Laboratories
Martlesham Heath
Ipswich 1PS 7RE