Commercial Intratheater Airlift: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Use in US Central Command

105 Pages·2013·0.78 MB·English

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REPORT
Commercial Intratheater Airlift
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Use
in U.S. Central Command
Ronald G. McGarvey t Thomas Light t Brent Thomas t Ricardo Sanchez
PROJECT AIR FORCE
REPORT
Commercial Intratheater Airlift
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Use
in U.S. Central Command
Ronald G. McGarvey • Thomas Light • Brent Thomas • Ricardo Sanchez

Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
PROJECT AIR FORCE
The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under
Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic
Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
McGarvey, Ronald G.
Commercial intratheater airlift : cost-effectiveness analysis of use in U.S. Central Command / Ronald G.
McGarvey, Thomas Light, Brent Thomas, Ricardo Sanchez.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-7837-7 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Airlift, Military— United States—Costs—Evaluation. 2. Airlift, Military—Contracting out—United
States—Evaluation. 3. United States. Central Command. I. Light, Thomas, Ph. D. II. Thomas, Brent. III.
Sanchez, Ricardo R., 1979- IV. Title. V. Title: CITA, cost-effectiveness analysis of use in US CENTCOM.
UC333.M35 2013
358.4'40681—dc23
2013004955
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Preface
Te Department of Defense (DoD) has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on commercial
intratheater airlift (CITA) movements in the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) area
of responsibility. Tis is notable, beyond simply the magnitude of the expenditures, because
intratheater airlift within a combat theater of operation is typically assumed to be a mission
performed by military aircraft; indeed, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) has deployed a number of
C-130s and C-17s to USCENTCOM in support of this specifc mission.
Although some of the motivations provided for the use of CITA in this particular case
(that is, within USCENTCOM) are inherently noneconomic, the analysis detailed in this
report aims to answer the following question: Were these expenditures on CITA cost-efective,
relative to the cost of performing these same movements on USAF-organic aircraft? Tat is,
did DoD get a “good value” on these purchases? To answer that question, we frst had to iden-
tify how to measure cost-efectiveness of CITA. We then examined whether the use of CITA
should have been expanded or reduced, relative to the historical experience.
Te research described in this report was conducted within the Resource Management
Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE for a project titled “A Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF)–
Like Concept for Intratheater Lift: Approaches and Efects on Requirements,” sponsored by
Maj Gen Brooks Bash, former Director of Operations, Headquarters Air Mobility Command.
Tis report should be of interest to mobility planners, logisticians, and contracting per-
sonnel throughout DoD, in particular those associated with U.S. Transportation Command.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air
Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF pro-
vides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives afecting the development,
employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces.
Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower,
Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our website:
http://www.rand.org/paf/
iii
Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii
ChAPTer One
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
ChAPTer TwO
ITA in USCenTCOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Level of ITA Utilization in USCENTCOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
ChAPTer Three
Determining Cost-efectiveness of CITA Movements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
A Cost Model for TEP Movements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Cost of Charter Movements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Cost Model for USAF Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Optimization Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
ChAPTer FOUr
results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Optimization Using Assets Available in USCENTCOM in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Optimization if Additional USAF Assets Are Made Available in USCENTCOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Doubling the Number of C-130s Available in USCENTCOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Doubling the Number of C-17s Available in USCENTCOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Sensitivity Analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
ChAPTer FIve
Conclusions and Potential extensions to research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Potential Extensions to Future Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
v
vi Commercial Intratheater Airlift: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Use in U.S. Central Command
APPenDIxeS
A. Data Merging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
B. evaluation of the Teater express Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
C. estimating the Full Marginal Costs of Utilizing C-130 Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
D. Te Commercial Intratheater Airlift Optimization Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81