Commercial Airplanes

36 Pages·2004·1.01 MB·English

Commercial Airplanes
Overview
Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
Executive Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Demand for Air Travel
Air Travel Trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
Economics and Traffic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Regional Differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
Demand for Commercial Airplanes
Traffic and Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
Network Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Fleet Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
Airplane Replacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
Deliveries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
Freighter Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
Deliveries by Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
Regional Summaries
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
Northeast Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
Southeast Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
Southwest Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
Oceania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
Appendices
Regional Map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
Appendix A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26
Appendix B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28
Appendix C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
Appendix D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
About the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35
Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004 1 Table of Contents
Overview
Purpose
Welcome to the Boeing Commercial Airplanes Current Market Outlook2004,
which is available from our web site at www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo.
If you would like a printed version of the Outlook, click on the “print” button
found on every page. You will be able to download a printable .pdf file.
Every year, Boeing publishes its
latest assessment of the 20-year
demand for world air travel. This
assessment estimates the jet airplane
capacity needed to meet the projected
growth in travel demand, plus the
replacement market for older in-
service airplanes. This document
may be described as the Boeing world
outlook for the future of commercial
airplanes.
Boeing recently announced plans to
introduce a new twin-aisle airplane. The 7E7 is included for the first time
in the Current Market Outlook2004 analysis. Customers continue to request
frequent, nonstop service to their ultimate destinations. The efficient 7E7
will help airlines to meet this passenger demand profitably.
For more information about the Outlook you can send an e-mail using
the “contact us” link on any page, or write to:
Market Analysis
Current Market Outlook
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
P.O. Box 3707, MC 21-28
Seattle, WA 98124-2207 USA
Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004 2 Overview
Executive Overview
For over four decades, Boeing has published an annual assessment of
the future of air travel. This Current Market Outlookmodels traffic growth
and network development to describe the world airline system’s airplane
requirements over the next 20 years.
The long-term forecast for air travel is healthy.Cycles,
even severe ones such as occurred during the 2001–2003 period, do not
change the fundamentals of economic growth, globalization, and the
need for people to travel. The Current
20-Year Outlook—Airplanes
Market Outlookis a long-term fore-
Economic and traffic growth, 2004–2023
cast that assumes short-term cycles
throughout the forecast period, ■ Worldwide economic growth will average 3.0% per year.
but smooths these cycles to provide ■ Passenger traffic growth will average 5.2% per year.
a 20-year trend outlook. ■ Cargo traffic growth will average 6.2% per year.
Worldwide demand for commercial airplanes, 2004–2023
Economic growth is the
The world fleet will grow to 34,770 passenger and cargo jets and will consist of
major contributor to air travel
■ 17% regional jets. ■ 21% twin-aisle airplanes.
demand. Gross domestic product
■ 58% single-aisle airplanes. ■ 4% 747-size or larger airplanes.
(GDP) growth explains most of air
Total market potential is 25,000 new commercial airplanes worth
travel growth. Globalization and $2.0 trillion in 2003 U.S. dollars. Airlines will take delivery of
international trade, declining fares, ■ 4,290 regional jets. ■ 5,150 twin-aisle airplanes.
and network development, such as ■ 14,770 single-aisle airplanes. ■ 790 747-size or larger airplanes.
increased frequencies and more direct
service, explain the other portion of air travel demand. During the
next 20 years, annualized world GDP is forecast to grow at 3.0%.
Air travel will increase at an average annual rate of 5.2%.
Competition leads to more airline entrants, lower fares,
and improved networks.Across regions, governments continue
to deregulate air travel markets to realize profound consumer, business,
and tourism industry benefits. Typically, when deregulation occurs,
competition increases among airlines. History shows that competition
leads to an increase in new nonstop markets and frequency growth,
rather than an increase in average airplane size in seats. This trend
is forecast to continue throughout the forecast horizon.
Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004 3 Overview
Infrastructure develops alongside air travel demand.
History shows that in specific markets, infrastructure supply and air travel
demand are often not synchronized. Fortunately, the system adapts through
a variety of mechanisms, such as use of secondary airports, scheduling in
nonpeak hours, and improvements in Air Traffic Control. Many governments
and airport authorities have concrete plans to expand existing airports and
build new ones. Congestion will continue to be a cost to the airline system,
but it is not a barrier to growth.
Economic and traffic growth rates vary by region.Traffic
within Asia-Pacific will grow 6.1% annually over the next 20 years, and the
region’s share of world RPKs will increase by over three percentage points
to 18.4%. In contrast, Europe and North America are mature economies
with lower growth rates, although
these regions will continue to take the
most airplane deliveries. The market
share of flying within Latin America
will increase from 2% to 4% of world
RPKs reflecting the relatively high
7.6% annual traffic growth rate.
The world fleet will more
than double over the next
20 years to almost 35,000
airplanes. Three quarters of the
fleet in 2023 will be single-aisle jets.
Airlines need large numbers of single-aisle airplanes to fly the
many domestic short-haul routes within North America and Europe.
Within Asia-Pacific, a geographically wide region, a mix of single-aisle
and twin-aisle airplanes is required. In the long-haul transoceanic
markets, twin-aisle airplanes dominate the fleet.
Passengers will avoid itineraries that require multiple
hub connections and segments to complete a journey.
While the share of 747 and larger airplanes will fall from 6% to 4%, the
percentage of twin-aisle airplanes will increase from 18% to 21%. Twin-
aisle airplanes allow airlines to economically fly the increased frequencies,
city pairs, and nonstop flights requested by passengers.
Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004 4 Overview
Demand
For Air Travel
Air Travel Trend
World air travel has shown positive growth for 30 of
the past 34 years. Only 1991 and 2001 through 2003 have experienced
negative growth. Currently, the world air travel market is recovering, and
2004 is poised for double-digit traffic growth.
In short-term cycles, air travel demand can fluctuate widely.
Consumer confidence and business profits can be strong influences on air
travel demand during a business cycle. Travelers treat discretionary air
travel much as they treat more dur-
World Air Travel Continues to Grow
able goods such as computers and
Revenue passenger kilometers, billions
automobiles. Visits to friends and 10,000
relatives, vacations, and even
Long-term future growth annual rate
GDP 3.0%
business trips can be canceled or 7,500 Passenger 5.2%
Cargo 6.2%
delayed when income is depressed
or uncertain. The Current Market
5,000
Outlook forecast smooths these
short-term cycles and provides
2,500
a 20-year trend forecast.
The globalization of world 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
economies and societies
continues.Over the 20-year Outlook period, increasing numbers of
people will travel to visit friends and relatives, to transact business, and
to enjoy leisure and educational opportunities not available close to home.
The major determinant of air travel growth will continue to be economic
growth. Travel growth is also stimulated by lower fares, additional world
trade, and service improvements such as increased frequencies and more
direct service. Deregulation and liberalization enhance airline competition,
which in turn fosters lower fares, as well as the additional frequencies
and city pairs passengers desire.
Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004 5 Demand For Air Travel
Economics and Traffic Forecast
World GDP is forecast to grow by 3.0% over the
next 20 years. In mature economies, GDP growth will average
between 2% and 3% per year. By contrast, GDP growth in developing
regions will average over 4%. Mature economies rely on productivity gains,
service industries, and consumer markets for much of their gains, whereas
emerging economies are characterized by expanding labor forces, increased
manufacturing, and entry into global capital and trade markets. China
is forecast to have the fastest growing GDP, at 5.5%, as it continues
its successful melding of a centrally planned economy with the
world market economy.
World air traffic measured in RPKs will grow by 5.2%
annually over the next 20 years. Northeast Asia, South America,
and Europe have the largest growth of air traffic in excess of GDP. Europe will
experience the continuing positive effects of liberalization. South America
will experience increased air traffic through liberalization, international
trade, and tourist development. Japan
GDP and RPK Growth Varies by Domicile
and Korea currently generate less air
Annual growth, 2004–2023
travel than their wealth would indicate
WORLD
and in the long term should show Northeast Asia
RPK
Europe
more robust air travel rates. The GDP
Oceania
Middle East will experience growth North America
above the world average. Southwest Middle East
Africa
Asia and Africa GDP and traffic have
CIS
historically lagged the world. Both South America
Central America
regions are forecast to grow above the
Southeast Asia
world average over the next 20 years,
Southwest Asia
as their economies and airline China
0 2 4 6 8
industries modernize.
Percentage
Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004 6 Demand For Air Travel
Regional Differences
Two effects determine total air travel growth for a country.
The first and more significant effect is economic growth. The second is the
value created as airlines reduce prices and increase service offerings and as
international trade grows. Over time, this second effect causes the share
of GDP that a country devotes to air travel to increase. The share of GDP
spent on air travel by countries with high initial travel shares has tended
to grow more slowly than the world average. These countries have maturing
air travel markets. In contrast, GDP share spent on air travel by countries
with low historical travel shares
Air Travel Growth Differs by Flow
has tended to rise faster than the
Added traffic, 2004–2023 2004–2023 Annual
world average. The RPK forecast, 2003 traffic growth growth, %
North America 4.1
thus, shows considerable variation
Asia-Pacific* 5.5
among regional flows.
Europe 4.1
North Atlantic 4.9
Because of its maturity, the
Europe–
Asia Pacific 6.0
intra-North America market
Transpacific 6.1
share of world traffic will
China 8.1
decline from 24% to 20%, North America– 5.2
Latin America
Europe–
as less developed markets grow Latin America 5.4
Latin America 7.6
faster. For example, the market
Africa–Europe 5.1
share of all intra-Asia-Pacific
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
markets will increase from 15% to RPKs, billions
* Excluding within China
18%. The North Atlantic market will
fall slightly from 11% market share to 10%, and the South Atlantic
(Europe–Latin America) will remain constant at 4% share. Europe will
decline from a 14% to a 12% market share. Latin America, a small region
with only 2% world market share, will increase its share to 4% because
of a high 7.6% traffic growth rate fueled by liberalization and
increased world trade.
Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004 7 Demand For Air Travel
Demand For
Commercial Airplanes
Traffic and Fleet
Airlines purchase airplanes to fly specific routes in response to traffic
demand. Route characteristics vary by region. Airlines need large numbers
of single-aisle airplanes to fly the many domestic short-haul routes within
North America and Europe.
Within Asia-Pacific, a far-flung region that stretches from Northeast Asia
to New Zealand and across to India, a mix of single-aisle and twin-aisle
airplanes is required. In the long-haul
Growth in Regional Traffic Shapes Fleet Requirements
transoceanic markets, twin-aisle
Available seat kilometers, billions
airplanes dominate the fleet. 3,000
Short-haul markets dominate
Regional jets
Single-aisle
departures. More than 17,000 jets
2,000 Twin-aisle
in the under-175-seat categories 747 and larger
will be delivered by 2023. In short-
haul markets, single-aisle airplanes 1,000
will continue to dominate and will
represent almost 90% of total world
departures. Domestic flying in 0 2003 2023 2003 2023 2003 2023 2003 2023 2003 2023 2003 2023
Asia–Europe Transpacific North Atlantic Europe Asia-Pacific North America
Europe and North America alone
will constitute over 40% of the world’s added ASKs and will absorb
a majority of the deliveries of single-aisle airplanes.
Asia-Pacific requires the major share of large capacity.
Over 80% of the world’s added ASKs generated by large airplanes will serve
travel within, to, and from the Asia-Pacific region. Because of long routes
and the high number of seats on these airplanes, relatively few large airplanes
are needed to provide the ASKs that market characteristics require.
Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004 8 Demand For Commercial Airplanes
Network Development Strategies
Airlines’ network development strategies influence their airplane acquisition
decisions. Airlines take into account government regulations, airplane cap-
abilities and economics, passenger requirements, competition from other
airlines, alliances, and the maturity of an airline’s existing network.
Over time, network development strategies have increasingly focused
on adding new nonstop services; boosting frequencies on existing routes;
competing with other carriers on their routes; and building complementary
primary, secondary, alliance, domestic, and gateway hub networks.
Passengers want to reach their destinations quickly.
Passengers will avoid itineraries that require several hub connections and
numerous segments to complete a journey. Where possible, airlines will
provide passengers point-to-point service on busy routes. When this is not
economically feasible, passengers will prefer carriers that move them over
a single hub with one-stop connecting service to their final destination.
These network strategies generally demand that airlines maintain or
reduce airplane size to provide frequent, nonstop service. High-fare
customers in particular are sensitive
Airlines Provide Passengers With More Frequencies and Airport Pairs
to convenient departure and arrival
Index (1980 = 100) Nonstop markets > 3,000 statute miles
times. The value they perceive in 1,200 ASKs
more flight-time choices outweighs
the cost to airlines of offering the 900
Frequency
added flights.
growth
600
Airport pairs
300
Airplane size in seats
0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004 9 Demand For Commercial Airplanes