Combining Supernovae and LSS Information with the CMB 9 A.N. Lasenby, S.L. Bridle & M.P. Hobson 9 9 AstrophysicsGroup,Cavendish Laboratory,MadingleyRoad,Cambridge,CB3 0HE, 1 UK. n a J ABSTRACTObservationsoftheCosmicMicrowaveBackground(CMB),largescalestructure 1 (LSS)andstandardcandlessuchasType1aSupernovae (SN)eachplacedifferentconstraints on 2 the values ofcosmological parameters. Weassumeaninflationary ColdDarkMatter model with a cosmological constant, in which the initial density perturbations in the universe are adiabatic. 1 WediscusstheparameterdegeneraciesinherentininterpretingCMBorSNdata,andderivetheir v 3 orthogonalnature. WethenpresentourpreliminaryresultsofcombiningCMBandSNlikelihood 0 functions. TheresultsofcombiningtheCMBandIRAS1.2Jysurveyinformationaregiven,with 3 marginalisedconfidenceregionsintheH0,Ωm,bIRASandQrms−psdirectionsassumingn=1, 1 ΩΛ+Ωm = 1 and Ωbh2 = 0.024. Finallywe combine all three likelihoodfunctions and find 0 that the three data sets are consistent and suitably orthogonal, leading to tight constraints on 9 9 H0,Ωm,bIRAS andQrms−ps,givenourassumptions. / h p KEYWORDS:CMB,largescalestructure,supernovae, cosmology - o r 1. INTRODUCTION t s By comparing the observed CMB power spectrum with predictions from cos- a : mological models one can estimate cosmological parameters. This has become an v area of great current interest, with many groups carrying out the analyses for a i X range of assumed models (e.g. Hancock et al. 1998, Lineweaver et al. 1997, Bond r & Jaffe1998). Generally speaking, the results of using CMB data alone to do this a are broadly consistent with the expected range of cosmologicalparameters,though perhaps with a tendency for H to come out rather low (assuming spatially flat 0 models). Inanindependentmanner,similarpredictionscanbe madebycomparing Large Scale Structure (LSS) surveys with cosmologicalmodels (Willick et al. 1997, Fisher&Nusser1996,Heavens&Taylor1995). Also,whendistantType1Asuper- novae are used as a standard candle, one can assess the probability as a function of Ω and Ω . We demonstrate that the results from the different data sets are m Λ compatible. However using each data set alone it is only possible to constrain combinations of the cosmological parameters. We show how these combinations of parametersare differentforeachdataset, thereforewhen wecombine the datasets we obtain tight constraints. 1 FIGURE1PlotsshowingcontoursofconstantR0S(χ)atredshiftsof0.1,1,10and100. 2. THE COMPLEMENTARY NATURE OF SUPERNOVAE AND CMB DATA There has recently been great interest in combining Type Ia supernovae (SN) data with results from the CMB (e.g. Lineweaver 1998, Tegmark 1998). It is instructiveto seehowthe complementaritybetweenthesupernovaeandCMB data arises. ThekeyquantityforthisdiscussionisR S(χ),whichoccursinthedefinitions 0 of Luminosity Distance: d =R S(χ)(1+z), L 0 and Angular Diameter Distance: d =R S(χ)/(1+z). θ 0 Here R is the current scale factor of the Universe, χ is a comoving coordinate, 0 and S(χ) is sinh(χ), χ or sin(χ) depending on whether the universe is open, flat or closed respectively. For a general Friedmann-Lemaitre model, one finds that 1 z dz′ R S(χ) sin(h) Ω 1/2 0 ∝ Ωk 1/2 (cid:26)| k| Z0 H(z′)(cid:27) | | where Ω = 1 (Ω +Ω ), k m Λ − H2(z) = H2 (1+Ω z)(1+z)2 Ω z(2+z) . 0 m − Λ (cid:0) (cid:1) For small z, it is easy to show that 1 d z+ (1 2q )z2, L 0 ∝ 2 − where q = 1(Ω 2Ω ) is the usual deceleration parameter. 0 2 m− Λ 2 Contours of equal likelihooCd MinB the Ωm, ΩΛ plane (50 by 50 grid) 0.8 0.6 Λ Ω 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Ω m Supernovae 0.8 0.6 Λ Ω 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Ω m Supernovae + CMB 0.8 0.6 Λ Ω 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Ω m 1 sigma, 2 sigma, ..., 5 sigma contours Marginalised in 20 steps over 0.8 < n < 1.3 and 12 < Q< 25 Ωh2=0.145, Ωh2=0.0125 c b FIGURE2LikelihoodsintheΩm,ΩΛ planefromCMBandSNdata Therefore, for small z, SN results are degenerate along a line of constant q . 0 However, the contours of equal R0S(χ) shift around as z increases and for z∼>100 the contours are approximately orthogonal to those corresponding to q constant. 0 ThisisthereasonwhyCMBandSNresultsareideallycomplementary. Thecurrent microwavebackgrounddataismainlysignificantindelimitingtheleft/rightposition ofthefirstDopplerpeakinthepowerspectrum,andthisdependsonthecosmology via the angular diameter distance formula, evaluated at z 1000. Thus the CMB ∼ resultswilltendtobe degeneratealonglines roughlyperpendicularto thoseforthe supernovae in the (Ω ,Ω ) plane. m Λ We may calculate the likelihood of a given set of cosmological parameters for CMBdataaloneusingthebandpowerapproachdescribedine.g.Hancocketal.1998. We use Seljak and Zaldariagga’s CMBFAST code to calculate scalar mode CMB 3 power spectra for an adiabatic inflationary Cold Dark Matter universe and use the CMB data points described in Webster et al. 1998. In this preliminary analysis we fix Ω h2 = 0.145 and Ω h2 = 0.0125 (where h = H /100 and Ω = Ω Ω ). We c b 0 c m b − marginalise over the initial power spectrum index, n, and CMB power spectrum normalisation, C . The result is shown in the top panel of Figure 2. Contours are 2 at changes in log(Likelihood) of 0.5, 2, 4.5, 8 and 12.5 from the minimum value. − As expected, there is a degeneracy in a similar direction to the last plot in Figure 1. The SN likelihoods we use are based on data in Perlmutter et al. 1998 and are plotted in the secondpanelof Figure 2. Again,the directionof degeneracyis along the lines of the first two plots of Figure 1. The lines of degeneracy are orthogonal and overlap, leaving a small patch of parameter space that fits both data sets. However we may be more quantitative than this. The probability of the Universe having a particular Ω , Ω given both m Λ theCMBandSNdatasetsissimplyfoundbymultiplyingtogethertheprobabilities ofthoseΩ ,Ω foreachdataset. WetherebyobtainthefinalplotinFigure2. The m Λ preferred universe is close to flat with a low Ω . However, we have applied very m limiting assumptions. Detailed likelihoodcalculations coveringa muchwider range of assumptions using both supernovae and CMB data are currently being carried out by Efstathiou et al., and should be submitted shortly. 3. COMBINING CMB AND LSS Recently, Webster et al. have combined the CMB likelihoods with IRAS likeli- hoods obtained from the 1.2Jy galaxy redshift survey following the spherical har- monic approach of Fisher, Scharf & Lahav. They assume a Harrison–Zel’dovich primordial scalar power spectrum (n = 1) and the nucleosynthesis constraint s Ω h2 = 0.024 (Tytler, Fan & Burles 1996) in a flat universe with a cosmologi- b cal constant, although clearly it would be interesting to relax these constraints. ThisapproachiscomplementarytothatofGawiser&Silk,whousedacompilation oflargescalestructureandCMBdatatoassessthegoodnessoffitofawidevariety of cosmologicalmodels. Because the CMB and LSS predictions are degenerate with respect to different parameters(roughly: Ω vsΩ forCMB;H andΩ vsb forLSS),thecombined m Λ 0 m iras data likelihood analysis allows the authors to break these degeneracies,giving new parameter constraints. The different degeneracy directions in the Ω , h plane are m showninthetoptwopanelsofFigure4. Notethatthetwodatasetsagreewellinthe region where the lines of degeneracy cross. Figure 3 shows the final 1-dimensional probability distributions for the main cosmological parameters after marginalizing over each of the others. The verticaldashed lines denote the 68% confidence limits and the horizontal plot limits are at the 99% confidence limits. The best fit results from the joint analysis of the two data sets on all the free parametersareshowninTable1,forwhichwecanderiveΩ =0.085,σ =0.67and b 8 shape parameter (Sugiyama 1995, Efstathiou, Bond & White 1992) Γ = 0.15. A detaileddiscussionoftheseestimatesandcomparisonwithotherresultsiscontained 4 0.35 4 0.3 0.25 3 d d o o o 0.2 o h h eli eli2 Lik0.15 Lik 0.1 1 0.05 0 0 16 18 20 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Qrms−ps h 3.5 1.4 3 1.2 2.5 1 d d oo 2 oo0.8 h h Likeli1.5 Likeli0.6 1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Ωm b FIGURE3Theprobabilitydistributions,usingCMBandIRASdata,aftermarginalisingover theotherfreeparameters. inWebster et al. 1998,but inbroadtermsitis clearthatfairlysensible valueshave resulted, which is encouraging for future prospects within this area. Table 1. — Parameter values at the joint optimum. The 68% confidence limits are shown, calculatedforeachparameterbymarginalisingthelikelihoodovertheother variables. Ω 0.39 0.29< Ω < 0.53 m m h 0.53 0.39< h < 0.58 Q (µK) 16.95 15.34< Q <17.60 b 1.21 0.98<b < 1.56 IRAS IRAS For a spatially flat model, the age of the universe is given by: 2 tanh−1√Ω Λ t= 3H0 √ΩΛ which evaluates to 16.5 Gyr in the current case, again compatible with previous estimates. 4. COMBINING CMB, SUPERNOVAE AND LSS DATA Finally, we combine all three data sets under the assumption applied in the above CMB+IRAS analysis and find that the data sets agree well and tighten the 5 Contours of equal −log(likelihood) CMB IRAS 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 h 0.6 h 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Ω Ω m m SN CMB, IRAS and SN 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 h 0.6 h 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Ω Ω m m Marginalised over 5 < Q < 30 and 0.7 < b < 2.0 for Ω h2=0.024, Ω =1−Ω , n=1 rms−ps b Λ m 1 sigma, 2 sigma, ..., 5 sigma contours shown FIGURE4Likelihoodsintheh,Ωm planeaftermarginalisingoverQrms−ps andbIRAS for CMB,IRAS,SNandallthreedatasetscombined. constraintsonthefourparametersinvestigated. WefindthatQrms−ps =17.5 1µK, H =59 8kms−1Mpc−1, Ω =0.33 0.07andb =1.05 0.2,whichm±ay be 0 m IRAS ± ± ± compared to the results in Table 1. 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