Colombia 2015.

117 Pages·2015·2.744 MB·English

by  OECD

OECD Economic Surveys O
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COLOMBIA D
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SPECIAL FEATURES: TAX POLICY; PENSION REFORM n
o OECD Economic Surveys
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Most recent editions u
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e COLOMBIA
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Australia, December 2014 Israel, December 2013 s
Austria, July 2013 Italy, May 2013
Belgium, May 2013 Japan, April 2013
Brazil, October 2013 Korea, June 2014
Canada, June 2014 Luxembourg, December 2012
Chile, October 2013 Mexico, January 2015
China, March 2013 Netherlands, April 2014
Colombia, January 2015 New Zealand, June 2013 V JANUARY 2015
Czech Republic, March 2014 Norway, March 2014 o
Denmark, January 2014 Poland, March 2014 lu
m
Estonia, October 2012 Portugal, October 2014 e
2
Euro area, April 2014 Russian Federation, January 2014 0
1
European Union, April 2014 Slovak Republic, November 2014 5
/
Finland, February 2014 Slovenia, April 2013 2

France, March 2013 South Africa, March 2013
Germany, May 2014 Spain, September 2014
Greece, November 2013 Sweden, December 2012
Hungary, January 2014 Switzerland, November 2013
Iceland, June 2013 Turkey, July 2014
India, November 2014 United Kingdom, February 2013
Indonesia, September 2012 United States, June 2014
Ireland, September 2013
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Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-col-2015-en. B
IA
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Volume 2015/2 ISSN 0376-6438
2015 SUBSCRIPTION
January 2015
(18 ISSUES)
J
ISBN 978-92-64-22491-9 a
9HSTCQE*ccejbj+ n
10 2014 19 1 P u
a
r
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2
0
1
5
OECD Economic Surveys:
Colombia
2015
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sovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries
andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.
Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD(2015),OECDEconomicSurveys:Colombia2015,OECDPublishing.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-col-2015-en
ISBN978-92-64-22491-9(print)
ISBN978-92-64-22492-6(PDF)
Series:OECDEconomicSurveys
ISSN0376-6438(print)
ISSN1609-7513(online)
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
Table of contents
BasicstatisticsofColombia,2013............................................. 7
Executivesummary......................................................... 9
Mainfindings........................................................... 10
Keyrecommendations................................................... 11
Assessmentandrecommendations........................................... 13
MacroeconomicOutlook ................................................. 17
Macroeconomicpolicies ................................................. 23
Recommendationsonmacroeconomicandfinancialpolicies ...................... 27
Makingthetaxsystemmoreefficient,fairandgreen ........................ 27
Recommendationsonraisingrevenuesandmakingthetaxmix
moreefficientandfair ................................................... 32
Promotingmoreinclusivegrowth ......................................... 32
Recommendationsonpromotinginclusivegrowth.............................. 40
Reformingthepensionsystemandoldageincomesupport................... 41
Recommendationsonpensionsandold-ageincomesupport...................... 45
Bibliography............................................................ 46
Annex.Follow-uptopreviousOECDpolicyrecommendations .................... 49
Thematic chapters
Chapter1.Makingtaxpolicymoreefficient,fairandgreen....................... 57
Maintrendsandcharacteristicsofthetaxsystem........................... 58
Makingthetaxsystemmoreefficient...................................... 63
Towardsamoreprogressivetaxsystem.................................... 70
Tacklingtaxevasion..................................................... 76
Makingthetaxsystemgreener ........................................... 79
Strengtheningfiscalrelationsacrosslevelsofgovernment.................... 81
Towardsacomprehensivereformofthetaxsystem ......................... 86
Recommendationsontaxpolicy............................................ 87
Bibliography............................................................ 88
Chapter2.Reformingthepensionsystemtoincreasecoverageandequity......... 91
Elderlywell-beingisaffectedbyahighpovertyrate.......................... 92
Thepensionsystem..................................................... 93
Thepensionsystemfacesmanychallenges ................................ 96
Amoreambitiousreformofthepensionsystemisneededinthelongrun...... 108
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:COLOMBIA©OECD2015 3
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Theminimumincomesupportfortheelderly............................... 109
Recommendationsonpensions............................................. 111
Bibliography............................................................ 111
Glossary................................................................... 113
Boxes
1.1. TaxeffortestimatesforColombia...................................... 60
1.2. Taxpolicychangesapprovedfor2015-18................................ 61
1.3. Mainaspectsofthe2012taxreform.................................... 63
1.4. MarginalcorporateeffectivetaxratesandcostofcapitalinColombia
underdifferentscenarios............................................. 64
1.5. Evaluatingsubnationalfiscalsustainability ............................. 85
2.1. Thepensionsystemandtheold-ageincomesupport..................... 95
2.2. Benefitoptionsintheprivatedefinedcontributionpensionsystem ........ 107
Tables
1. Macroeconomicindicatorsandprojections.............................. 18
2. ContributionbysectortoGDPgrowth .................................. 19
3. Centralgovernmentbudgetbalancetargetsandprojections............... 25
1.1. Costsofcapitalandmarginalcorporateeffectivetaxrates(METR)
inColombia......................................................... 68
1.2. Taxratesongasolineanddiesel,selectedLatinAmericancountries
andOECDaverage ................................................... 80
2.1. Statutoryretirementageandlifeexpectancyatretirement................ 104
Figures
1. Long-termmacroeconomicperformance................................ 15
2. Inequality,povertyandwell-beingindicators............................ 16
3. StrongtermsoftradeandFDIflowintooilandmininghaveled
toarealappreciation................................................. 17
4. Stronginvestmenthassupportedgrowthandlabourmarketperformance
hasbeensolid....................................................... 18
5. Inflationandinflationexpectationshavestabilisedaroundthetarget
mid-point .......................................................... 19
6. Thecurrentaccountdeficitiswidening................................. 20
7. Housingmarketindicatorssuggestsomeoverheatingrisks................ 22
8. Macroeconomicpolicyindicators ...................................... 24
9. TaxrevenuesinColombiaarelow...................................... 26
10. StatutorycorporateincometaxratesarehighinColombia................ 28
11. Roadfuelprices ..................................................... 31
12. Protectionofpermanentworkersagainstindividualandcollective
dismissals,2013..................................................... 33
13. Productmarketregulation ............................................ 34
14. Pavedroads(percentoftotalroads).................................... 35
15. ProfitabilityandintermediationmarginsintheColombianbankingsystem
remainhigh......................................................... 37
16. Efficiencyandcompetitioninthebankingsystemarecomparativelylow.... 38
17. Minimumwageaspercentofmedianwagein2012...................... 39
4 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:COLOMBIA©OECD2015
TABLEOFCONTENTS
18. Formalandinformaljobcreation ...................................... 40
19. Well-beingofpeopleaged65yearsandmore............................ 41
20. PensioncoverageinLACcountries ..................................... 42
21. Grosspensionreplacementratesin2013................................ 43
22. Dependencyratio.................................................... 43
23. Publicspendingonold-ageincomesupport ............................. 44
1.1. Taxefforthasstagnatedinrecentyears................................. 59
1.2. Predictedtaxrevenuesaccordingtoalternativeestimationmethods
(percentofGDP)..................................................... 60
1.3. Theshareofnatural-resourcerelatedrevenuesinGDPhasaccelerated
(inpercentofGDP) .................................................. 61
1.4. Taxrevenuecompositionin2012....................................... 62
1.5. TopstatutorycorporateincomeratesinOECDandLatinAmerican
countries........................................................... 64
1.6. Taxationhaslittleredistributivepower ................................. 70
1.7. TaxesinColombiaarelessprogressivecomparedtoMexico ............... 71
1.8. Colombia’sstandardVATrateisrelativelylow ........................... 72
1.9. Thepersonalincometaxlevieslittlerevenueinpartduetoahigh
minimumexemptionlevel............................................ 73
1.10. Combinedstatutorytaxratesondividends.............................. 75
1.11. Thereisroomtostrengthenthetaxadministration ...................... 77
1.12. Environmentallyrelatedtaxesarelow.................................. 79
1.13. Incomepercapitainequalityacrossregionsishigh ...................... 82
1.14. Compositionofsubnational(municipalanddepartmental)revenues ....... 83
2.1. Well-beingofpeopleaged65yearsandmore............................ 92
2.2. Povertyrateofthepopulationolderthan65years(2010).................. 93
2.3. Publicspendingonnon-contributorypensions .......................... 94
2.4. Thepensionsystemandold-ageincomesupport ........................ 95
2.5. Distributionofcontributorsbyageandscheme,2013..................... 96
2.6. PensioncoverageinLACcountries ..................................... 96
2.7. CoverageratesandGDPpercapita..................................... 97
2.8. LabourinformalityandpensioncoverageinselectedLACcountries ........ 98
2.9. Workerscontributingtothepensionsystembylevelofincome ............ 99
2.10. Grosspensionreplacementratesin2013................................ 102
2.11. Dependencyratio.................................................... 103
2.12. Coverageandvalueofminimumpensions.............................. 110
OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:COLOMBIA©OECD2015 5
ThisSurveyispublishedontheresponsibilityoftheEconomicandDevelopment
ReviewCommittee(EDRC)oftheOECD,whichischargedwiththeexaminationofthe
economicsituationofmembercountries.
TheeconomicsituationandpoliciesofColombiawerereviewedbytheCommittee
on 12November2014. The draft report was then revised in the light of the
discussionsandgivenfinalapprovalastheagreedreportofthewholeCommitteeon
3December2014.
TheSecretariat’sdraftreportwaspreparedfortheCommitteebyChristianDaude,
Christine De la Maisonneuve and Guillaume Bousquet under the supervision of
PirittaSorsa. Editorial support was provided byAnthony Bolton, Inés Gómez Palacio
and Mikel Inarritu. The Survey also benefitted from contributions by Bert Brys,
JaneKorinek, Laurent Lambert, Sarah Perret, Julien Pascal, Mikaela Rambali and
VirginiaRobano.
ThepreviousSurveyofColombiawasissuedinDecember2012.
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BASICSTATISTICSOFCOLOMBIA,2013
(NumbersinparenthesesrefertotheOECDaverage)a
LAND,PEOPLEANDELECTORALCYCLE
Population(million) 48.3 Populationdensityperkm2 42.3 (34.8)
Under15(%) 27.7 (18.2) Lifeexpectancy(years,2012) 73.7 (80.2)
Over65(%) 6.2 (15.6) Men 70.0 (77.5)
Women 77.3 (82.9)
Latest5-yearaveragegrowth(%) 1.4 (0.6) Latestgeneralelection June2014
ECONOMY
Grossdomesticproduct(GDP) Valueaddedshares(%)
Incurrentprices(billionUSD) 378 Primarysector 19.4 (2.5)
Incurrentprices(trillionCOP) 707 Industryincludingconstruction 22.9 (27.8)
Latest5-yearaveragerealgrowth(%) 4.2 (0.8) Services 57.7 (69.5)
Percapita(000USDPPP) 12.6 (39.3)
CENTRALGOVERNMENTb
PercentofGDP
Expenditure 19.3 (42.4) Grossfinancialdebt 37.3 (109.5)
Revenue 16.9 (36.7) Netfinancialdebt 34.8 (69.6)
EXTERNALACCOUNTS
Exchangerate(COPperUSD) 1868.4 Mainexports(%oftotalmerchandiseexports)
PPPexchangerate(USA=1,2012) 1171.3 Petroleumandcrudeproducts 54.4
InpercentofGDP Coalandsolidfuelsmanufacturedfromcoal 10.6
Exportsofgoodsandservices 17.8 (52.6) Gold(includinggoldplatedwithplatinium) 3.8
Importsofgoodsandservices 20.2 (48.6) Mainimports(%oftotalmerchandiseimports)
Currentaccountbalance -3.3 (-0.1) Petroleumoils,otherthancrude 10.7
Netinternationalinvestmentposition -27.2 Motorcarsandothermotorvehicles 4.7
Electricalapparatus 3.9
LABOURMARKET,SKILLSANDINNOVATION
Employmentratefor15-64year-olds(%,2012) 60.3 (65.2) Unemploymentrate,LabourForceSurvey(age15andover)(%) 9.6 (7.9)
Men 73.3 (73.1) Youth(age15-24,%,2012) 19.5 (16.1)
Women 48.1 (57.4)
Participationratefor15-64year-olds(%) 63.7 (71.1) Tertiaryeducationalattainment25-64year-olds(%,2012)c 22.6 (32.2)
Averagehoursworkedperyear 1956 (1771) GrossdomesticexpenditureonR&D(%ofGDP,2012) 0.17 (2.4)
ENVIRONMENT
Totalprimaryenergysupplypercapita(toe/1000USD,2010) 0.08 (0.14) CO2emissionsfromfuelcombustionpercapita(tonnes,2011) 1.6 (9.9)
Renewables(%) 25.0 (8.8) Waterabstractionspercapita(1000m3,2007) 0.6
Fineparticulatematterconcentration(urban,PM10,g/m3,2011) 53.0 (28.0) Municipalwastepercapita(tonnes,2012) 0.2 (0.5)
SOCIETY
Incomeinequality(Ginicoefficient,2012) 0.539 (0.308) Educationoutcomes(PISAscore,2012)
Relativepovertyrate(%,2012) 32.7 (11.1) Reading 403 (497)
Publicandprivatespending(%ofGDP,2012) Mathematics 376 (494)
Healthcare 6.8 (9.2) Science 399 (501)
Pensions 4.0 (8.7) Shareofwomeninparliament(%,January2014) 12.1 (26.7)
Education(primary,secondary,postsec.nontertiary) 3.9 (3.9) Netofficialdevelopmentassistance(%ofGNI) 0.20 (0.37)
Betterlifeindex:www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org
a) WheretheOECDaggregateisnotprovidedinthesourcedatabase,asimpleOECDaverageoflatestavailabledataiscalculatedwhere
dataexistforatleast29membercountries.
b) FortheOECD,thenumbersrefertoGeneralGovernment.
c) ForColombia,thisindicatoristheshareoflabourforcepopulationwithatertiaryeducationalattainmentovertotallabourforcepopulation.
Source: Calculationsbasedondataextractedfromthedatabasesofthefollowingorganisations:OECD,InternationalEnergyAgency,
WorldBank,WDI,InternationalMonetaryFund,Inter-ParliamentaryUnion,DANEandCentralBankofColombia.

OECDEconomicSurveys:Colombia
©OECD2015
Executive summary
● Mainfindings
● Keyrecommendations
9