Cognitive Illusions: A Handbook on Fallacies and Biases in Thinking, Judgement and Memory

451 Pages·2005·1.4 MB·English

by  Rüdiger F Pohl

Cognitive Illusions
“This book is a marvellous achievement. Whereas many edited collections
are best dipped into, I recommend reading this one from beginning to end. In
doing so one becomes aware of the tantalizing possibility that different psy-
chological phenomena just might share some connection. In addition, the
inclusion of classroom demonstrations in each chapter will be an invaluable
resource for instructors.”
David Hardman, Department of Psychology,
London Metropolitan University
Cognitive Illusions investigates a wide range of fascinating psychological
effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our every day lives. At
the beginning of each chapter, leading researchers in the field introduce the
background to phenomena such as; illusions of control, overconfidence and
hindsight bias. This is followed by an explanation of the experimental con-
text in which they can be investigated and a theoretical discussion which
draws conclusions about the wider implications of these fallacy and bias
effects. Written with researchers and instructors in mind, this tightly edited
reader-friendly text provides both an overview of research in the area and
many lively pedagogic features such as chapter summaries, further reading
lists and experiment suggestions.
Rüdiger F. Pohl is Assistant Professor, Justus Liebig University Giessen,
Germany
234x156 HB

Cognitive Illusions
A Handbook on Fallacies and Biases in
Thinking, Judgement and Memory
Edited by
Rüdiger F. Pohl
First published 2004 by Psychology Press
27 Church Road, Hove, East Sussex BN3 2FA
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Psychology Press
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Psychology Press is a part of the Taylor & Francis Group
© 2004 Psychology Press
Typeset in Sabon by RefineCatch Ltd, Bungay, Suffolk
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic,
mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter
invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any
information storage or retrieval system, without permission in
writing from the publishers.
This publication has been produced with paper manufactured to strict
environmental standards and with pulp derived from sustainable
forests.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Cognitive Illusions : a handbook on fallacies and biases in thinking,
judgement and memory / [edited by] Rüdiger Pohl.—1st ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1-84169-351-0 (hardcover)
1. Errors. 2. Prejudices. I. Pohl, Rüdiger, 1954–
BF323.E7C64 2004
153.7′4—dc22 2004009834
ISBN 1-84169-351-0
Contents
List of tables and figures vii
List of contributors xi
Introduction: Cognitive illusions 1
RÜDIGER F. POHL
PART I
Illusions of thinking 21
1 Conjunction fallacy 23
JOHN E. FISK
2 Base rates in Bayesian inference 43
MICHAEL H. BIRNBAUM
3 Statistical formats in Bayesian inference 61
STEPHANIE KURZENHÄUSER AND ANDREA LÜCKING
4 Confirmation bias 79
MARGIT E. OSWALD AND STEFAN GROSJEAN
5 Illusory correlation 97
KLAUS FIEDLER
6 Illusions of control 115
SUZANNE C. THOMPSON
7 Biases in deductive reasoning 127
JONATHAN ST. B. T. EVANS
PART II
Illusions of judgement 145
8 Availability 147
ROLF REBER
vi Contents
9 Judgements by representativeness 165
KARL H. TEIGEN
10 Anchoring effect 183
THOMAS MUSSWEILER, BIRTE ENGLICH, AND FRITZ STRACK
11 Validity effect 201
CATHERINE HACKETT RENNER
12 Mere exposure effect 215
ROBERT F. BORNSTEIN AND CATHERINE CRAVER-LEMLEY
13 Overconfidence 235
ULRICH HOFFRAGE
14 Pollyanna Principle 255
MARGARET W. MATLIN
PART III
Illusions of memory 273
15 Moses illusion 275
HEEKYEONG PARK AND LYNNE M. REDER
16 Orientation illusions in memory 293
GREGORY V. JONES AND MARYANNE MARTIN
17 Associative memory illusions 309
HENRY L. ROEDIGER III AND DAVID A. GALLO
18 Effects of labelling 327
RÜDIGER F. POHL
19 Misinformation effect 345
JACQUELINE E. PICKRELL, DANIEL M. BERNSTEIN, AND
ELIZABETH F. LOFTUS
20 Hindsight bias 363
RÜDIGER F. POHL
21 Illusions of change or stability 379
ANNE WILSON AND MICHAEL ROSS
Perspectives 397
22 Suggestion and illusion 399
VLADIMIR A. GHEORGHIU, GÜNTER MOLZ, AND RÜDIGER F. POHL
Author Index 423
Subject Index 433
Tables and Figures
Tables
2.1 Mean judgements of probability that the cab was blue (%) 51
2.2 Bayesian predictions (converted to percentages) 52
3.1 Information of the breast cancer problem represented in
four statistical formats 64
5.1 Common notation to describe the correlation between two
dichotomous variables 100
6.1 Questions used to demonstrate illusory control over
driving 117
7.1 Examples of four kinds of syllogisms presented by Evans
et al. (1983) together with the percentage rates of
acceptance of each argument as valid over three
experiments 139
8.1 Vulnerability to heart disease as a function of type and
number of recalled behaviours and family history 159
11.1 Examples of true and false statements 202
14.1 List of skills, mean difficulty rating, mean bias score,
number below average, and number above average 257
14.2 Percentage of behaviours recalled from MOPI feedback, as
a function of presentation time and the nature of the
feedback 262
14.3 Percentage of items recalled, as a function of mood and the
nature of the stimulus 263
15.1 The exemplar questions used in the Moses illusion
experiment 276
15.2 Mean target reading times and proportion of correct and
incorrect responses (in parentheses) 279
18.1 The 12 ambiguous stimuli with two lists of labels (adapted
from the original experiment of Carmichael et al., 1932) 331
21.1 Current and retrospective past self-ratings (2 months ago)
when the past was described as either recent or distant 383
22.1 Examples for perceiving illusion as reality in different
cognitive domains 411
viii Tables and Figures
Figures
2.1 Mean inference that the cab was Blue, expressed as a
percentage, plotted against the Bayesian solutions, also
expressed as percentages (H = high-, M = medium-
credibility witness). 52
2.2 Fit of averaging model: Mean judgements of probability
that the cab was Blue, plotted as a function of the
estimated scale value of the base rate. 53
3.1 Structure of the statistical information in the breast
cancer problem in the natural frequency format (left
side) and normalized frequency format (right side). 65
5.1 (a) Mean estimated percentage of stereotype-consistent
and inconsistent behaviour and (b) mean trait rating on
stereotype-consistent and inconsistent scales. 109
10.1 Response latencies for lexical decisions as a function of
word type and anchor (Mussweiler & Strack, 2000a). 194
12.1 Effects of stimulus type and exposure frequency on
liking ratings of merely exposed stimuli. 224
12.2 Effects of stimulus type and exposure frequency on
complexity ratings of merely exposed stimuli. 224
13.1 Left: Calibration curves for representative and selected
sets of items. Right: The graphs labelled confidence
depict mean confidence judgements minus mean
percentage correct, and those labelled frequency depict
mean frequency estimates (which have been transformed
to percentages to be comparable) minus percentage correct.
Data taken from Gigerenzer et al. (1991). 241
15.1 Mean illusion rates from four experiments of Kamas
et al. (1996). 288
16.1 Recognition responses (proportional to line lengths) for
Comet Hale-Bopp at eight different orientations, for
left-handed and for right-handed participants. 299
17.1 The DRM false-recognition effect (Roediger &
McDermott, 1995, Exp. 2). 314
17.2 Scatterplot of the relationship between false recall and
backward associative strength across 55 DRM lists. 317
17.3 The effects of retention interval on true and false recall
(Toglia et al., 1999, Exp. 2). 319
19.1 The effect of the type of information on the proportion
of correct answers given on the recognition test 2 days
after viewing the slide show and completing the
questionnaire. 350
Tables and Figures ix
20.1 Mean shift indices for experimental and control items in
several studies in the memory design (ordered according
to values for experimental items; positive values indicate
that the recalled estimates were closer to the solution
than the original ones had been). 369
20.2 Scattergram of mean individual shift indices for experi-
mental and control items in one study (Pohl et al., 2003). 370