CO2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion - International Energy Agency

138 Pages·2012·2.17 MB·English

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2012
E D I T I O N
CO EMISSIONS
2
FROM FUEL COMBUSTION
H I G H L I G H T S
International
Energy Agency
2012
EDITION
CO EMISSIONS
2
FROM FUEL COMBUSTION
H I G H L I G H T S
In the lead-up to the UN climate negotiations in Doha, the latest information on
the level and growth of CO emissions, their source and geographic distribution will be
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essential to lay the foundation for a global agreement. To provide input to and support
for the UN process the IEA is making available for free download the “Highlights”
version of CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion.
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This annual publication contains:
• estimates of CO emissions by country from 1971 to 2010;
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• selected indicators such as CO /GDP, CO /capita, CO /TPES and CO /kWh; and
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• C O emissions from international marine and aviation bunkers, and other
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relevant information.
The eighteenth session of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention
(COP 18), in conjunction with the eighth meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
(CMP 8), will be meeting in Doha, Qatar from 26 November to 7 December 2012. This
volume of ”Highlights”, drawn from the full-scale study, was specially designed for
delegations and observers of the meeting in Doha.
2012
E D I T I O N
CO EMISSIONS
2
FROM FUEL COMBUSTION
H I G H L I G H T S
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member
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The Agency’s aims include the following objectives:
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through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
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CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION Highlights (2012 Edition) - 3
FOREWORD
In the lead-up to the UN climate negotiations in Doha, Qatar, the latest information on the level and growth of
CO emissions, their source and geographic distribution will be essential to lay the foundation for a global agree-
2
ment. To provide input to and support for the UN process, the IEA is making available for free download – the
“Highlights” version of CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion. The PDF publication and an EXCEL file with the
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tables can be downloaded for free at www.iea.org/co2highlights.
Recent years have witnessed a fundamental change in the way governments approach energy-related environ-
mental issues. Promoting sustainable development and combating climate change have become integral aspects of
energy planning, analysis and policy making in many countries, including all IEA member states.
The purpose of this volume is to put our best and most current information in the hands of those who need it, in-
cluding in particular the participants in the UNFCCC process. The IEA Secretariat is a contributor to the official
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies for estimating greenhouse-gas emissions. The
IEA’s energy data are the figures most often cited in the field. For these reasons, we felt it appropriate to publish
this information in a comprehensive form.
These data are only for energy-related CO , not for any other greenhouse gases. Thus they may differ from countries'
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official submissions of emissions inventories to the UNFCCC Secretariat. However, the full-scale study contains
data for CO from non-energy-related sources and gas flaring, and emissions of CH , N O, HFC, PFC and SF . In
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addition, the full-scale study also includes information on “Key Sources” from fuel combustion, as developed in the
IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
This report is published under my responsibility as Executive Director of the IEA and does not necessarily reflect
the views of IEA member countries.
Maria Van der Hoeven
Executive Director
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4 - CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION Highlights (2012 Edition)

What’s New?
Electricity-only emission factors
In previous editions of this publication, the IEA has published an indicator for CO emissions per kWh for the
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electricity and heat generating industries. This indicator was useful as an overall carbon intensity measure of a
country’s electricity and heat generating sectors, and it was easy to calculate. However, this indicator had a
number of drawbacks and the IEA received many requests for electricity-only emission factors.
We are pleased to announce that starting with this edition, we have replaced the former indicator with an
electricity-only factor expressed in grammes of CO per kWh. For a complete description of the methodology
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used to estimate this indicator, please see Chapter 4.
Country/territory coverage
Starting with this edition, Kosovo and Montenegro are now available separately. Data for Kosovo are
available starting in 2000. Between 1990 and 1999, data for Kosovo are included in Serbia. Prior to 1990, they
are included in Former Yugoslavia. Data for Montenegro are available starting in 2005. Between 1990 and
2004, data for Montenegro are included in Serbia. Prior to 1990, they are included in Former Yugoslavia.
The IEA has also made some small changes in the terminology of countries and regions. The region Latin
America and the region Other Latin America have been renamed Non-OECD Americas and Other Non-
OECD Americas.
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CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION Highlights (2012 Edition) - 5
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. SNAPSHOT OF CO EMISSIONS .................................................................................................7
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2. REGIONAL ASPECTS OF THE ENERGY-CLIMATE CHALLENGE ................................. 17
3. IEA EMISSIONS ESTIMATES ...................................................................................................... 29
Inventory quality ................................................................................................................................................. 29
Reference Approach vs. Sectoral Approach ....................................................................................................... 29
Differences between IEA estimates and UNFCCC submissions ........................................................................ 30
Key sources ......................................................................................................................................................... 32
Notes on tables and graphs ................................................................................................................................. 33
Country notes ...................................................................................................................................................... 35
4. INDICATOR SOURCES AND METHODS ................................................................................. 37
Population ........................................................................................................................................................... 37
GDP and GDP PPP ............................................................................................................................................. 37
CO emissions ..................................................................................................................................................... 38
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Total primary energy supply ............................................................................................................................... 38
Electricity output................................................................................................................................................. 38
CO / TPES ......................................................................................................................................................... 38
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CO / GDP .......................................................................................................................................................... 38
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CO / population ................................................................................................................................................. 39
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Per capita CO emissions by sector .................................................................................................................... 39
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CO emissions per kWh ...................................................................................................................................... 39
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5. GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE ................................................................................................... 43
6. SUMMARY TABLES ....................................................................................................................... 47
CO emissions: Sectoral Approach ..................................................................................................................... 48
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CO emissions: Reference Approach .................................................................................................................. 60
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CO emissions from international marine bunkers ............................................................................................. 63
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CO emissions from international aviation bunkers............................................................................................ 66
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CO emissions by sector in 2010 ........................................................................................................................ 69
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CO emissions with electricity and heat allocated to consuming sectors in 2010 .............................................. 72
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Total primary energy supply ............................................................................................................................... 75
GDP using exchange rates .................................................................................................................................. 81
GDP using purchasing power parities ................................................................................................................. 84
Population ........................................................................................................................................................... 87
CO emissions / TPES ........................................................................................................................................ 90
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CO emissions / GDP using exchange rates ........................................................................................................ 93
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CO emissions / GDP using purchasing power parities ...................................................................................... 96
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CO emissions / population ................................................................................................................................. 99
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Per capita emissions by sector in 2010 ............................................................................................................. 102
Per capita emissions with electricity and heat allocated to consuming sectors in 2010 ................................... 105
Electricity output............................................................................................................................................... 108
CO emissions per kWh .................................................................................................................................... 111
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7. GLOBAL TOTAL ........................................................................................................................... 123
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Important cautionary notes
The estimates of CO emissions from fuel combustion presented in this publication are calculated using the
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IEA energy balances and the default methods and emission factors from the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines
for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. There are many reasons why the IEA Secretariat estimates may
not be the same as the numbers that a country submits to the UNFCCC, even if a country has accounted
for all of its energy use and correctly applied the IPCC Guidelines.
In this publication, the IEA Secretariat presents CO emissions calculated using both the IPCC Reference
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Approach and the IPCC Tier 1 Sectoral Approach. In some of the OECD non-member countries, there can be
large differences between the two sets of calculations due to various problems in some energy data. As a
consequence, this can lead to different emission trends between 1990 and 2009 for certain countries. Please
see Chapter 3 for further details.

Energy data on OECD member and non-member other countries are available on CD-ROM suitable
countries1 are collected by the Energy Data Centre for use on Windows-based systems. To order, please
(EDC) of the IEA Secretariat, headed by Jean-Yves see the information provided at the end of this
Garnier. The IEA would like to thank and publication.
acknowledge the dedication and professionalism of
In addition, a data service is available on the Internet. It
the statisticians working on energy data in the
includes unlimited access through an annual subscription
countries. Karen Tréanton, with the assistance of
as well as the possibility to obtain data on a pay-per-
Aidan Kennedy, is responsible for the estimates of
view basis. Details are available at www.iea.org.
CO emissions from fuel combustion. Alex Blackburn
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developed the new indicator for CO emissions per Enquiries about data or methodology should be
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kWh. Desktop publishing support was provided by addressed to:
Sharon Burghgraeve.
Karen Tréanton:
CO emission estimates from 1960 to 2010 for the Telephone: [phone],
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Annex II countries and from 1971 to 2010 for all E-mail: [email protected].

1. This document is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty
over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and 2
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boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. In this publi- 0
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cation, “country” refers to a country or a territory, as the case may be. D,
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CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION Highlights (2012 Edition) - 7
1. SNAPSHOT OF CO EMISSIONS
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growth rates, the share of total emissions (excluding
Latest developments in
bunkers) for non-Annex I countries increased slightly to
20102 (and beyond) just over 54% (their share surpassed that of Annex I
countries for the first time in 2008).
The changes were not equal across fuels, regions and
Global CO2 emissions rose by 4.6% in 2010, after sectors. The 0.4-GtCO2 increase in emissions for
having declined in 2009 due to the impact of the Annex I countries was primarily due to similar
financial crisis, in particular on Western economies. increases in gas and coal demand (demand for oil was
Emissions in Annex I3 countries increased by 3.3% in almost static). By contrast, the 0.8-GtCO2 increase in
2010 after falling sharply in 2009, while emissions in emissions for non-Annex I countries was more spread
out: 50% from coal, 25% from oil and 23% from
non-Annex I countries continued to increase rapidly
natural gas (Figure 1).
(5.6%). A more positive long-term assessment shows
that, collectively, emissions in Annex I countries were Early indications suggest that CO emissions in de-
2
3.7% below their 1990 level, while emission levels for veloping countries in 2011 continued to increase at a
faster rate than in the Annex I countries, mainly as a
the group of countries participating in the Kyoto
result of growing fossil fuel consumption in some of
Protocol were 12.4% below their 1990 level.
the larger countries.
In absolute terms, global CO emissions increased by
2
1.3 GtCO between 2009 and 2010. However, growth
2 Figure 1. Global change in CO emissions
rates by region varied greatly: emissions in Latin 2
(2009-10)
America4, Asia and China grew strongly (6.0% to
MtCO
6.5%), while as mentioned above, emissions in 2
Annex I countries grew at a more modest rate (3.3%).
900
Africa was the only region where emissions did not
800
increase in 2010 (-0.1%). Due to these differing
700
600

500
2. Energy consumption in 2009 was affected by the global financial 400
crisis and some of the CO2 emission trends seen may be deceptive. 300
3. The Annex I Parties to the 1992 UN Framework Convention on
200
Climate Change (UNFCCC) are: Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium,
Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, 100
European Economic Community, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, 0
Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lichtenstein, Lithuania, Coal Oil Gas Other Total
Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway,
Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, the Slovak Republic, Annex I Non-Annex I
Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United
Kingdom and United States. See www.unfccc.int. For country coverage Key point: CO emissions increased in both Annex I
of Annex I EIT and Annex II, see Geographical Coverage. 2
and non-Annex I countries in 2010; however, the 12
4. For the purposes of this discussion, Latin America includes non- 0
OECD Americas and Chile. source of the emissions growth varied. D, 2
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In the medium term, in its New Policies Scenario, the CO emissions from oil represented 10.9 GtCO in
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World Energy Outlook (WEO 2012)5 projects that 2010, an increase of 2.7%. The decreasing share of oil
global CO emissions from fuel combustion will con- in total primary energy supply (TPES), as a result of
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tinue to grow unabated, albeit at a lower rate, reaching the growth of coal and the penetration of gas, limited
37.0 GtCO by 2035, compared to 30.3 GtCO in the increase of CO emissions from oil. WEO 2012
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2010. This is an improvement over the WEO Current projects, however, that emissions from oil will grow
Policies Scenario and in line with the worst-case sce- to 12.6 GtCO in 2035, principally due to increased
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nario presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on transport demand.
Climate Change (IPCC)6 in the Fourth Assessment
Emissions of CO from gas in 2010 represented
Report (2007), which projects that emissions will 2
6.2 GtCO , 7.1% higher than in the previous year.
stimulate a world average temperature increase of 2
Again, the WEO 2012 projects emissions from gas
between 2.4°C and 6.4°C by 2100.
will continue to grow, rising to 9.2 GtCO in 2035.
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CO emissions by fuel
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Figure 2. CO emissions by fuel
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In 2010, 43% of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion GtCO2
were produced from coal, 36% from oil and 20% from
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gas. Growth of these fuels in 2010 was quite different,
reflecting varying trends that are expected to continue 30
(Figure 2).
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Between 2009 and 2010, CO emissions from the
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combustion of coal increased by 4.9% and represented 20
13.1 GtCO . Currently, coal fills much of the growing
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energy demand of those developing countries (such as
China and India) where energy-intensive industrial 10
production is growing rapidly and large coal reserves
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exist with limited reserves of other energy sources.
Without additional abatement measures, the WEO 2012 0
projects that emissions from coal will grow to 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
15.3 GtCO in 2035. However, adopting a pathway
2 Coal and peat Oil Natural gas Other
towards limiting the long-term temperature increase to
2°C as in the WEO 2012 450 Scenario – through use of Key point: Combustion of coal has driven the growth
more efficient plants and end-use technologies as well in global emissions in recent years. Although there
as increased use of renewables, nuclear and carbon was a decline in 2009 due to the financial crisis, this
capture and storage (CCS) technologies – could see anomaly was short term and the trend has returned to
coal consumption drop and CO2 emissions from coal its previous trajectory.
reduced to 5.6 Gt by 2035. Energy Technology
Perspectives 2012 (ETP 2012) also shows that
CO emissions by region
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intensified use of coal would substantially increase CO
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emissions unless there was a very widespread Between 2009 and 2010, CO emissions increased in
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deployment of CCS. all regions except Africa, however, growth rates
varied among regions. As mentioned earlier, CO
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emissions from non-Annex I countries grew by 5.6%,
while those of Annex I countries rose by a more
5. Unless otherwise specified, projections from the World Energy
modest 3.3%, having decreased in 2009. As a result,
Outlook refer to the New Policies Scenario from the 2012 edition. This
scenario takes account of the broad policy commitments and plans that the gap between the aggregate emissions of non-
have been announced by countries around the world, including national Annex I countries and Annex I countries continued to
pledges to reduce GHG emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy
grow.
subsidies – even where the measures to implement these commitments
have yet to be identified or announced. These commitments are
At the regional level (Figure 3), between 2009 and
assumed to be implemented in a relatively cautious manner, reflecting
2010, CO emissions increased significantly in Latin
their non-binding character and, in many cases, the uncertainty 2
shrouding how they are to be put into effect. America (6.5%), Asia excluding China (6.1%) and
6. The IPCC was created in 1988 by the World Meteorological China (6.0%). CO emissions increased at a lower rate
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Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme to in Annex II regions, ranging from 2.1% in Annex II
assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for 2
Europe to 3.4% in Annex II North America. 1
the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts, and options 0
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for adaptation and mitigation. Emissions in Africa remained stable. D,
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