Climate treaties and approaching catastrophes PDF
Preview Climate treaties and approaching catastrophes
Barrett, Scott Working Paper Climate treaties and approaching catastrophes CESifo Working Paper, No. 4024 Provided in Cooperation with: Ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Suggested Citation: Barrett, Scott (2012) : Climate treaties and approaching catastrophes, CESifo Working Paper, No. 4024, Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/68198 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. 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Climate Treaties and Approaching Catastrophes Scott Barrett CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 4024 CATEGORY 10: ENERGY AND CLIMATE ECONOMICS DECEMBER 2012 An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from the RePEc website: www.RePEc.org • from the CESifo website: www.CESifo-group.org/wp T T CESifo Working Paper No. 4024 Climate Treaties and Approaching Catastrophes Abstract If the threshold that triggers climate catastrophe is known with certainty, and the benefits of avoiding catastrophe are high relative to the costs, treaties can easily coordinate countries’ behavior so as to avoid the threshold. Where the net benefits of avoiding catastrophe are lower, treaties typically fail to help countries cooperate to avoid catastrophe, sustaining only modest cuts in emissions. These results are unaffected by uncertainty about the impact of catastrophe. By contrast, uncertainty about the catastrophic threshold typically causes coordination to collapse. Whether the probability density function has “thin” or “fat” tails makes little difference. JEL-Code: Q540. Keywords: catastrophe, uncertainty, thresholds, impacts, coordination, cooperation, international. Scott Barrett School of International and Public Affairs & Earth Institute Columbia University 420 West 118th Street, Room 1427 USA - 10027 New York NY [email protected] 31 July 2011 Revised 24 July 2012 Second Revision 26 October 2012 The idea for this paper came to me as I was thinking of how to respond to a question posed by William Nordhaus at a seminar I was giving at Yale a few years ago. I am grateful to Kenneth Arrow, Geir Asheim, Mark Cane, Arthur Campbell, Astrid Dannenberg, Claude Henry, Robert Keohane, Matthew Kotchen, Robert Mendelsohn, Erin Mansur, Apurva Sanghi, Thomas Schelling, Robert Socolow, and Martin Weitzman for comments on a previous draft. I am also grateful to the editor, two anonymous referees, and participants at seminars given at Columbia, Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, the World Bank, and Yale (a later seminar) for their comments. An earlier version of this paper was given at the invitation of Michael Finus as a keynote lecture at the Environmental Protection and Sustainability Forum, University of Exeter, April 2011. )(*+,$%-./'$0-,* ! ! )2(*(!$+!:,$@(*+&#!&3*((%(,'>!10-$7$(-!$,!'2(!b*&%(C0*E!"0,@(,'$0,!0,!"#$%&'(! "2&,3(>!'2&'!&'%0+/2(*$1!10,1(,'*&'$0,+!07!3*((,20:+(!3&+(+!+20:#-!;(!+'&;$#$_(-! U&'!&!#(@(#!'2&'!C0:#-!/*(@(,'!*%'."#),/!d%A!(%/2&+$+e!&,'2*0/03(,$1!$,'(*7(*(,1(! C$'2!'2(!1#$%&'(!+A+'(%SV!)2(!ZA0'0!9*0'010#!'*$(-!'0!3('!10:,'*$(+!'0!*(-:1(!'2($*! (%$++$0,+!C$'20:'!$-(,'$7A$,3!&!'2*(+20#-!70*!-&,3(*0:+!$,'(*7(*(,1(>!;:'!ZA0'0! 7&$#(->! %&$,#A! 70*! #&1E! 07! &,! (,70*1(%(,'! %(12&,$+%SF!)2(! *(1(,'#A! ,(30'$&'(-! 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