Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet PDF
Preview Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet
Climate Shock PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD Copyright © 2015 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW press.princeton.edu All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Wagner, Gernot, 1980– Climate shock : the economic consequences of a hotter planet / Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-691-15947-8 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Climatic changes— Economic aspects. I. Weitzman, Martin L., 1942– II. Title. QC903.W34 2015 363.738’74—dc23 2014028540 British Library Cataloging- in- Publication Data is available This book has been composed in Sabon Next LT Pro, DINPro Printed on acid- free paper. ∞ Printed in the United States of America 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 To Siri and Jennifer Contents Preface: Pop Quiz ix Chapter 1. 911 1 Chapter 2. 411 30 Chapter 3. Fat Tails 48 Chapter 4. Willful Blindness 80 Chapter 5. Bailing Out the Planet 92 Chapter 6. 007 116 Chapter 7. What You Can Do 128 Epilogue: A Different Kind of Optimism 148 Acknowledgments 153 Notes 155 Bibliography 207 Index 243 Preface Pop Quiz Two quick questions: Do you think climate change is an urgent problem? Do you think getting the world off fossil fuels is difficult? If you answered “Yes” to both of these questions, wel- come. You’ll nod along, on occasion even cheer, while read- ing this book. You’ll feel reaffirmed. You are also in the minority. The vast majority of people answer “Yes” to one or the other question, but not both. If you answered “Yes” only to the first question, you probably think of yourself as a committed environmen- talist. You may think climate change is the issue facing society. It’s bad. It’s worse than most of us think. It’s hit- ting home already, and it will strike us with full force. We should be pulling out all the stops: solar panels, bike lanes, the whole lot. You’re right, in part. Climate change is an urgent prob- lem. But you’re fooling yourself if you think getting off fos- sil fuels will be simple. It will be one of the most difficult challenges modern civilization has ever faced, and it will require the most sustained, well- managed, globally coop- erative effort the human species has ever mounted. If you answered “Yes” only to the second question, chances are you don’t think climate change is the defining problem of our generation. That doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a “skeptic” or “denier” of the underlying scientific
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