Climate, Chaos and Collective Behaviour: A Rising Fickleness

352 Pages·2022·4.252 MB·English

by  Jaap van Ginneken

FRONTIERS OF GLOBALIZATION
Climate, Chaos and
Collective Behaviour
A Rising Fickleness
Jaap van Ginneken
Frontiers of Globalization
Series Editor
Jan Nederveen Pieterse
Global Studies Department
University of California
Santa Barbara, CA, USA
With the onset of the twenty-first century, key components of the
architecture of twentieth-century globalization have been crumbling.
American hegemony has weakened politically and economically. Laissez-
faire capitalism that shaped neoliberal globalization has proved to be
crisis-prone and is giving way to a plurality of ways of organizing and
regulating capitalism. With the rise of emerging societies, the driving
forces of the world economy are shifting not merely geographically but
structurally; industrializing societies, rather than postindustrial consumer
societies, are again propelling the world economy. These changes involve
major breaks: an era of multipolarity; the affirmation of the plurality of
capitalisms; the emergence of new modernities; and the new patterns of
East-South and South-South relations, in contrast to the North-South
relations. These changes unfold on a global scale and cannot be properly
understood on a national, regional or even international basis.
Understanding these changes requires interdisciplinary and kaleidoscopic
approaches that range from global political economy to cultural transforma-
tions. The series welcomes contributions to global studies that are inno-
vative in topic, approach or theoretical framework. Since the fin-de-regime
of the millennium, with globalization in the throes of dramatic change,
the series will cater to the growing interest in material on contemporary
globalization and its ramifications. Proposals can be submitted by mail to
the series editor: Jan Nederveen Pieterse, Mellichamp Professor of Global
Studies and Sociology, Global & International Studies Program,
University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-7065, USA
Jaap van Ginneken
Climate, Chaos and
Collective Behaviour
A Rising Fickleness
Jaap van Ginneken
Amersfoort, The Netherlands
Frontiers of Globalization
ISBN 978-3-031-15236-8 ISBN 978-3-031-15237-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15237-5
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature
Switzerland AG 2022
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or
information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or
the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any
errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional
claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface
I could honestly title this book “What I wish I had known forty years ago.” It is
a book of ideas, observations and lessons learned, not a book of management
techniques.
—Richard Farson, American management consultant1
Of all the prizes that come from surviving more than 50 years, the best is the
freedom to be eccentric. What a joy to be able to explore the physical and mental
bounds of existence in safety and comfort, without bothering whether I look or
sound foolish.
—James Lovelock, British environmentalist2
Upon completion, this book suddenly surged in relevance and topical-
ity. Because the October 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to a
Japanese, a German and an Italian scholar ‘for groundbreaking models of
the hidden rules that govern complex systems, including predictions of the
human impact on the Earth’s climate’.3 This theory had emerged from
Chaos theory, and it also applies to the Covid pandemic.
1 p. 16.
2 p. 3.
3 American Physical Society Newsletter, Oct. 5, 2021.
v
vi Preface
The book focuses on a readable scientific explanation in ten steps of
Complex Systems, Chaos theory and the new family of related notions
around it, that seem strange and hard to understand at first. It then takes
it one step further, by applying it to the psycho-social sciences. In par-
ticular to the mysterious domains of mass psychology and collective
behavior sociology, that deal with capricious ‘rapids’ in our mutual inter-
actions. Fake news, rumors, urban legends, conspiracy theories and
more—here all about Climate change and Covid.
It also looks at new social movements, protests, confrontations, riots,
violence, from this perspective. Media hypes, panic, financial crises.
Earlier everyday certainties lose their grip, as if public opinion and com-
munication become ever more volatile, from one day to the next. Just
look at today’s newspaper, or evening television news. Small items in
them may suddenly turn out to have huge implications.
Yet we still live under the illusion, that everything is well under con-
trol, or can easily be brought under control. But this is not true, and ever
less so. Our whole world is changing, more rapidly than ever before. But
we don’t understand why and how this is the case. As we still cling to the
naïve superstition of the Holy Trinity of mechanicist science. Meaning: To
measure is to know; to know is to predict; to predict is to control.
In doing so, we have consistently avoided other phenomena, more
volatile ones: 10, 1 or 0.1% of them. They obey an entirely different,
seemingly illogical logic. What is more: they tend to periodically derail
our certainties in dramatic ways, and confront us with mysterious occur-
rences. We have no idea how they come about. But if we further delve
into them, they suddenly open unknown vistas into another world, like
through Alice’s looking glass. Every new discovery triggers an Aha Erlebnis,
the recognition of a new creative insight.
Upon publication of an earlier different forerunner of this book, long
sold out, there were enthusiastic reactions from reviewers, at home and
abroad. Some talked about a paradigm shift, an entirely new way of
looking at the subject. The introduction in the first section of each chapter
does once again look at one lively current example of the phenomenon in
Preface vii
question.4 The chapter then continues with a further elaboration of that
category, in terms of mass psychology and collective behavior sociology.
But in the last section, it skips to similar processes in nature and the natural
sciences, for parallel insights. That often provides a surprising twist.
Amersfoort, The Netherlands Jaap van Ginneken
4 Earlier case studies were based on the huge archives with clippings and files which I kept on all
related subjects (48 mover’s boxes in all). This time, I have limited myself to current press clippings
and broadcasting texts from serious media. All literal quotes and precise data are well-documented.
But as this publication is aimed at a somewhat larger audience, the number of notes has been
drastically reduced.
Praise for Collective Behavior and Public
Opinion
“A rather enjoyable read.”
—Anthony E. Adams, American Communication Journal, USA
“Alternative explanations … Very readable.”
—International Journal of Public Opinion Research
ix
Contents
Part I Mind Quakes 1
1 Public Opinion as a Complex Adaptive System (CAS) 3
2 The Continuous Mutation of Informal Messages 29
3 Circular Reaction in Media Hypes 55
Part II Emerging Collective Behavior 81
4 The Formation of Synergy in Crowds 85
5 The Emergence of Patterns in Opinion Currents 109
6 The Self-Organization of Social Movements 139
xi