Table Of Content

United States Department of Agriculture Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region Janine R. Rice, Linda A. Joyce, Claudia Regan, David Winters, Rick Truex Forest Service General Technical Report Rocky Mountain Research Station RMRS-GTR-376 June 2018 Rice, J.R.; Joyce, L.A.; Regan, C.; Winters, D.; Truex, R. 2018. Climate change vulnerability assessment of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-376. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 216 p. Abstract Vulnerability assessments are important tools to assist in climate adaptation planning. Six priority ecosystems were identified in the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region: alpine turf and dwarf-shrubland; aquatic, riparian, and wetland ecosystems in glaciated valleys; subalpine spruce-fir; low-gradient mountain stream reaches; ponderosa pine; and Great Plains streams and riparian areas. Vulnerability to nonclimate and climate stressors for these priority ecosystems is assessed. Criteria used to assess vulnerability include ecosystem traits related to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the ecosystem. We engaged scientists through an expert review to vet the vulnerability rankings and confidence in the assessment. Aquatic ecosystems were the most vulnerable priority ecosystem, and alpine ecosystems had higher vulnerability than lower elevation terrestrial ecosystems. The narrative for each priority ecosystem describes the nature of the vulnerability to climate change. Keywords: low-gradient mountain stream; subalpine spruce-fir; aquatic, riparian, and wetland ecosystems in glaciated valleys; alpine turf and dwarf-shrubland; Great Plains stream reach; ponderosa pine Cover photos by Robert Rice. All Rocky Mountain Research Station publications are published by U.S. Forest Service employees and are in the public domain and available at no cost. Even though U.S. Forest Service publications are not copyrighted, they are formatted according to U.S. Department of Agriculture standards and research findings and formatting cannot be altered in reprints. Altering content or formatting, including the cover and title page, is strictly prohibited. Acknowledgments We would like to acknowledge funding from the USFS Climate Change Advisor’s Office. We thank Hector Galbraith for his assistance in using his vulnerability assessment method and critiquing our modifications for the Rocky Mountain Region. We also acknowledge Lisa-Natalie Anjozian for her editing on the draft narratives. We acknowledge, in particular, the technical experts who reviewed the narratives and assessed the vulnerability and confidence for each narrative: Gregor Auble, Michael Battaglia, Jill Baron, William Bowman, Shannon Brewer, Jonathan Coop, Kate Dwire, Kelly Elder, Hector Galbraith, Carol Howe, Andrew Kratz, Noah Molotch, Robert Musselman, Jason Neff, Laura Perry, David Peterson, Leroy Poff, Frank Rahel, William Romme, Wayne Shepperd, Thomas Veblen, Mark Weinhold, and Ellen Wohl. We appreciate greatly the three reviewers who reviewed the entire General Technical Report: Greg Aplet, Sarah Sawyer, and Robert Hall. We would also like to thank Cynthia Moser for her careful editing of the final draft of the manuscript. Authors Janine R. Rice is a Research Ecologist with Rice Consulting LLC in Fort Collins, Colorado. Linda A. Joyce is a Research Ecologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Human Dimensions Research Program in Fort Collins, Colorado. Claudia Regan was the Regional Ecologist in the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, Regional Office in Golden, Colorado. David Winters (retired) was the Regional Fisheries Program Manager and Aquatic Ecologist in the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, Regional Office in Golden, Colorado. Rick Truex is the Regional Wildlife Program Leader in the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, Regional Office in Golden, Colorado. Contents Chapter 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 Janine R. Rice and Linda A. Joyce Assessing Vulnerability ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Assessing Vulnerability of Priority Ecosystems in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region ...........................................2 Regional Focus and Priority Ecosystems of the Rocky Mountain Region ........................................................................2 Vulnerability Assessment Framework, Expert Review, Manager Workshop ....................................................................3 Intended Audience and Potential Uses ....................................................................................................................................6 References ..............................................................................................................................................................................7 Chapter 2. Climate Overview for the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region ...................9 Linda A. Joyce and Janine R. Rice Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................9 Recent and Historical Climate—State-Level Summaries ........................................................................................10 Historical and Recent Climate at the Scale of a National Forest .............................................................................14 Projecting Climate Over the Next 100 Years ..........................................................................................................14 Modeling the Climate .................................................................................................................................................14 Understanding Climate Scenarios and Projections ......................................................................................................15 Climate Projections for the Rocky Mountain Region....................................................................................................16 Changing Climate, Changing Risks ........................................................................................................................17 References ............................................................................................................................................................21 Chapter 3. Alpine Turf and Dwarf-Shrubland Ecosystems: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region .........................23 Janine R. Rice, Claudia Regan, Dave Winters, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................24 Vulnerability of Alpine Turf and Dwarf-Shrubland Ecosystems to Nonclimate Stressors .........................................27 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................27 Current Status and Human Influences ...................................................................................................................28 Invasive and Nonnative Species ..................................................................................................................................29 Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition ...............................................................................................................................29 Dust on Snow .............................................................................................................................................................29 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors .....................................................................................30 Factors that Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................30 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ................................................................................................30 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................................................................31 Vulnerability of Alpine Turf and Dwarf-Shrubland Ecosystems to Climate Stressors ................................................31 Capacity for Range Shift ..............................................................................................................................................31 Elevation Potential for Range Shift ...............................................................................................................................32 Ecosystem Connectivity ..............................................................................................................................................32 Vulnerability of Cold-adapted, Foundation, or Keystone Species to Climate Change .............................................33 American Pika ............................................................................................................................................................33 Alpine Turf and Dwarf-Shrubland Vegetation ..............................................................................................................34 Pollinators ...................................................................................................................................................................35 Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events ...................................................................................................................36 Sensitivity to Drought ..................................................................................................................................................36 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ..........................................................................................................................................36 Sensitivity to Freeze Date Variability and Earlier Snowmelt ..........................................................................................37 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................................38 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................38 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ........................................................................................39 ii Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime .....................................................................................................39 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ....................................................................................................40 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa .....................................41 Drought and Dust on Snow, Warmer Temperatures, Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition .........................................41 Climate and Fire ...................................................................................................................................................42 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Alpine Turf and Dwarf-Shrubland Ecosystems .......................................42 References ............................................................................................................................................................45 Chapter 4. Aquatic, Riparian, and Wetland Ecosystems in Glaciated Valleys: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region .....52 Janine R. Rice, Dave Winters, Claudia Regan, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................53 Vulnerability of Aquatic, Riparian, and Wetland Ecosystems in Glaciated Valleys to Nonclimate Stressors ............55 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................55 Current Status and Human Influences ...................................................................................................................56 Invasive and Nonnative Species ..................................................................................................................................57 Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition ...............................................................................................................................57 Dust on Snow .............................................................................................................................................................58 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors .....................................................................................58 Factors That Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ............................................................................................58 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ...............................................................................................59 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................................................................59 Vulnerability of Aquatic, Riparian, and Wetland Ecosystems in Glaciated Valleys to Climate Stressors ..................60 Capacity for Network Shift ..........................................................................................................................................60 Elevation Potential for Habitat Shift .............................................................................................................................60 Fragmentation ............................................................................................................................................................60 Vulnerability of Cold-Adapted, Foundation, or Keystone Species to Climate Change ............................................................61 Cold-Adapted Amphibians ..........................................................................................................................................62 Cold-Adapted Macroinvertebrates ...............................................................................................................................63 Cold-Water Native Fish ...............................................................................................................................................63 Riparian and Wetland Vegetation ................................................................................................................................64 Pollinators ...................................................................................................................................................................64 Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events ...................................................................................................................64 Sensitivity to Drought ..................................................................................................................................................64 Sensitivity to Floods ....................................................................................................................................................65 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ..........................................................................................................................................66 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................................66 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................66 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ........................................................................................67 Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime .....................................................................................................67 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ....................................................................................................68 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa .....................................69 Drought, Dust on Snow, Warmer Temperatures, Atmospheric Deposition ....................................................................69 Warming and Invasive Species ....................................................................................................................................71 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Aquatic, Riparian, and Wetland Ecosystems in Glaciated Valleys ..........71 References ............................................................................................................................................................74 Chapter 5. Subalpine Spruce-Fir Ecosystems: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region .................................81 Janine R. Rice, Claudia Regan, Dave Winters, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................82 Vulnerability of Subalpine Spruce-Fir Ecosystems to Nonclimate Stressors ............................................................85 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................85 Current Status and Human Influences .........................................................................................................................85 iii Invasive and Nonnative Species ..................................................................................................................................86 Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition ...............................................................................................................................87 Fire .............................................................................................................................................................................87 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors .....................................................................................88 Factors That Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ............................................................................................88 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Disturbances .........................................................................................89 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors ........................................................................................................................89 Vulnerability of Subalpine Spruce-Fir Ecosystems to Climate Stressors ..................................................................90 Capacity for Range Shift ..............................................................................................................................................90 Southern Limit Proximity .............................................................................................................................................90 Elevation Potential for Range Shift ...............................................................................................................................90 Connectivity ...............................................................................................................................................................91 Vulnerability of Cold-Adapted, Foundation, or Keystone Species to Climate Change .............................................91 Engelmann Spruce and Subalpine Fir ..........................................................................................................................91 Cold-Adapted Understory Vegetation ..........................................................................................................................92 Birds and Mammals ....................................................................................................................................................93 Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events ...................................................................................................................94 Sensitivity to Drought ..................................................................................................................................................94 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ..........................................................................................................................................95 Sensitivity to Freeze Dates ...........................................................................................................................................95 Sensitivity to Wind ......................................................................................................................................................96 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................................96 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................96 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ........................................................................................97 Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime .....................................................................................................97 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ....................................................................................................98 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate the Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa .............................100 Bark Beetle Outbreaks and Warmer Temperatures .....................................................................................................100 Fire, Drought, and Warmer Temperatures ..................................................................................................................101 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Spruce-Fir Ecosystems ........................................................................101 References ..........................................................................................................................................................104 Chapter 6. Low-Gradient Mountain Stream Reaches: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region .............................................112 Janine R. Rice, Dave Winters, Claudia Regan, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................113 Vulnerability of Low-Gradient Mountain Stream Reaches to Nonclimate Stressors ..............................................115 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors ...........................................................................................115 Current Status and Human Influences .................................................................................................................116 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................................119 Factors That Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ..........................................................................................119 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................119 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors .................................................................................................................120 Vulnerability of Low-Gradient Mountain Stream Reaches to Climate Stressors ....................................................121 Capacity for Network Shift ........................................................................................................................................121 Elevation Shift Potential for Stream Network Habitats ................................................................................................121 Fragmentation ..........................................................................................................................................................122 Vulnerability of Cold-Adapted, Foundation, or Keystone Species to Climate Change ...........................................123 Beaver.......................................................................................................................................................................124 Cold-Water Native Fish .............................................................................................................................................124 Amphibians ..............................................................................................................................................................126 Benthic Macroinvertebrates ......................................................................................................................................126 Riparian Plants ..........................................................................................................................................................127 iv Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events .................................................................................................................128 Sensitivity to Drought ...............................................................................................................................................129 Sensitivity to Floods ..................................................................................................................................................129 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ........................................................................................................................................130 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................................131 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change .................................................................................131 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................133 Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime ...................................................................................................133 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ..................................................................................................134 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa ...................................135 Climate Change and Disturbance ..............................................................................................................................135 Climate Change and Human Water Use ....................................................................................................................136 Climate Change and Water Quality ...........................................................................................................................136 Climate Change and Nonnative or Invasive Species ..................................................................................................136 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Low-Gradient Mountain Stream Reaches ............................................137 References ..........................................................................................................................................................139 Chapter 7. Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region ..................................................................148 Janine R. Rice, Claudia Regan, Dave Winters, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................148 Vulnerability of Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems to Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................152 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors ...........................................................................................152 Current Status and Human Influences .................................................................................................................152 Invasive and Nonnative Species ................................................................................................................................154 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................................154 Factors That Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ..........................................................................................154 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ..............................................................................................155 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors .................................................................................................................156 Vulnerability of Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems to Climate Stressors .........................................................................156 Capacity for Range Shift ............................................................................................................................................156 Southern Limit Proximity ...........................................................................................................................................157 Elevational Range Shift Potential ...............................................................................................................................157 Connectivity ............................................................................................................................................................157 Vulnerability of Cold-adapted, Foundation, or Keystone Species to Climate Change ...........................................158 Ponderosa Pine .........................................................................................................................................................158 Birds and Mammals ..................................................................................................................................................159 Understory Vegetation ...............................................................................................................................................160 Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events .................................................................................................................................161 Sensitivity to Drought ................................................................................................................................................161 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ........................................................................................................................................162 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................................163 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ..................................................................................163 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................164 Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime ...................................................................................................164 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ..................................................................................................164 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa ...................................166 Climate and Fire .......................................................................................................................................................166 Climate and Bark Beetle Outbreaks ...........................................................................................................................167 Climate and Invasive Species ....................................................................................................................................168 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems ................................................................168 References ..........................................................................................................................................................170 v Chapter 8. Great Plains Streams and Riparian Areas: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region .............................................179 Janine R. Rice, Dave Winters, Claudia Regan, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................180 Vulnerability of Great Plains Streams to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................184 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors ...........................................................................................184 Current Status and Human Influences .................................................................................................................185 Water Use .................................................................................................................................................................186 Invasive and Nonnative Species ................................................................................................................................186 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................................187 Factors That Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ..........................................................................................187 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................188 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors .................................................................................................................188 Vulnerability of Great Plains Streams to Climate Stressors ...................................................................................189 Ecosystem Capacity for Network Shift .......................................................................................................................189 Elevational and Latitudinal Shift Potential ..................................................................................................................189 Fragmentation ..........................................................................................................................................................189 Vulnerability of Foundation or Keystone Species to Climate Change ...................................................................190 Fish ..........................................................................................................................................................................191 Benthic Macroinvertebrate Species ...........................................................................................................................191 Riparian Plant Communities and Riparian-Dependent Animals .................................................................................191 Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events .................................................................................................................192 Sensitivity to Drought ................................................................................................................................................192 Sensitivity to Floods ..................................................................................................................................................193 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ........................................................................................................................................193 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................................195 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ..................................................................................195 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................196 Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime ...................................................................................................196 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ..................................................................................................197 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa ...................................198 Warmer Temperatures and Invasive Species ..............................................................................................................198 Drought, Warmer Temperatures, and Human Water Use ...........................................................................................199 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Great Plains Streams and Riparian Areas ............................................199 References ..........................................................................................................................................................202 Appendix A: Assumptions and Structure of the Rocky Mountain Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment .........208 Appendix B: Criteria and Rationale for Assessing Ecosystem Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors ..210 Appendix C: Vulnerability Scoring Categories .....................................................................................................216 vi Chapter 1. Introduction Janine R. Rice and Linda A. Joyce Assessing Vulnerability__________________________________________ One of the first steps in the process of adapting to climate change is assessing the vulnerability of natural ecosystems and species to climate change (National Research Council 2011; USDA FS 2011). Conducting vulnerability assessments and developing adaptation options are a part of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USFS) Roadmap to Climate Change (USDA FS 2011). Vulnerability of a natural resource can be defined as a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which the natural resource is exposed, and its sensitivity, resilience, and adaptive capacity (Glick et al. 2011). Although this definition offers the conceptual components, no standard methodological approach to assessing vulnerability currently exists (USGCRP 2011). Assessing vulnerability in a consistent and transparent manner is critical where public review of land management planning occurs and where adaptation practices may be implemented with partners across ownership boundaries or within a larger region (USDA FS 2011). Vulnerability assessments in natural resource management have focused on species, habitats, ecosystems, watersheds, or ecosystem processes, or a combination thereof (Bagne et al. 2011; Case and Lawler 2011; Furniss et al. 2013; Galbraith and Price 2011; McCarthy and Enquist 2011; Rice et al. 2012; Swanston et al. 2011, 2016; Young et al. 2012). Various biological and ecological traits and processes have been used in these assessment tools to evaluate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This variety of approaches can make comparisons across as- sessments within a geographic area difficult. The legacy of past human activities and current underlying ecological stresses, often not considered, can result in a great vari- ation in the status of habitats, influencing adaptive capacity and vulnerability within a geographic region. Many of the methods have focused strictly on the physical or ecological vulnerabilities and have not integrated social vulnerability into the natural resource vulnerability assessment. Although the objective of vulnerability assessments is typically stated as assisting managers in developing adaptation options, many of the approaches for assessing vulnerability do not help with the difficult conversa- tions about what should be adapted; yet conversations are needed among scientists, resource managers, and decisionmakers to identify and implement adaptation actions (Joyce and Millar 2014; Yuen et al. 2013). There is a need for a structured vulner- ability assessment approach that can bring together the current literature on climate change vulnerability, engage experts in vetting the scientific information available to assess vulnerability, and initiate the dialogue with managers on what is vulnerable and how management may address these vulnerabilities. USDA Forest Service RMRS-GTR-376. 2018 1 Assessing Vulnerability of Priority Ecosystems in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region______________________ Incorporating ecosystem processes as well as species and habitat considerations into vulnerability assessments can begin the process of identifying adaptation options to maintain and enhance ecosystem services under climate change. In 2008, the Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences and the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife, with funding from the Wildlife Conservation Society, began a cooperative ef- fort to determine: (1) vulnerability to climate change of Massachusetts fish and wildlife habitats and species in greatest need of conservation, and (2) potential adaptations of conservation and management practices (Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences and Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife 2010). This approach was further developed when the Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences and the National Wildlife Federation collaborated with the Northeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies and Federal agencies. Through this effort, a consistent and transparent structure was developed to identify vulnerabilities of key habitats in the northeastern United States (Galbraith 2011; Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences and National Wildlife Federation 2013). The framework also included current stressors that are a focus of resource management. In addition to these two applications in the northeastern United States, this assessment framework has been used for assessments of habitat and species in the Gunnison Basin in Colorado (Neely et al. 2011) and the Badlands National Park in South Dakota (Amberg et al. 2012). We build on the work of this northeastern multi-institution collaboration and recent applications to extend the framework to consistently assess vulnerability of select aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across a large geographic region. In addition, we engaged subject-matter experts to evaluate the vulnerabilities, and managers to initi- ate consideration of adaptation actions. This collaboration between the USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station (hereafter RMRS) and the USFS Rocky Mountain Region, as with the northeastern collaboration, has the goal of increasing the capabilities of resource agencies to manage natural resources under climate change, and to increase the dialogue among resource managers across an ecologically varied region. Regional Focus and Priority Ecosystems of the Rocky Mountain Region We assess ecosystem vulnerability at the geographic scale of the USFS Rocky Mountain Region (fig. 1.1). Within this Region, 17 national forests and 7 national grasslands have been administratively combined into 11 units. These 11 administrative units cover 27.8 million ac and include 91 wetland and upland terrestrial ecological systems (Comer et al. 2003). These public lands are managed for multiple resources: timber, water, range, recreation, and more (USDA FS n.d.). Elevations range from about 2,500 ft on the central mixed-grass prairie to more than 14,000 ft in the alpine tundra of the Rocky Mountains. The mountainous areas receive the most precipitation, and the driest areas are on the Great Plains (Nebraska, Kansas) and the Intermountain Basins in Wyoming. Mean annual temperatures are coolest in the highest elevations, well below freezing for some months, and warmest in the lower elevations of the Great Plains. 2 USDA Forest Service RMRS-GTR-376. 2018

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United States Department of Agriculture Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region Janine R. Rice, Linda A. Joyce, Claudia Regan, David Winters, Rick Truex Forest Service General Technical Report Rocky Mountain Research Station RMRS-GTR-376 June 2018 Rice, J.R.; Joyce, L.A.; Regan, C.; Winters, D.; Truex, R. 2018. Climate change vulnerability assessment of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-376. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 216 p. Abstract Vulnerability assessments are important tools to assist in climate adaptation planning. Six priority ecosystems were identified in the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region: alpine turf and dwarf-shrubland; aquatic, riparian, and wetland ecosystems in glaciated valleys; subalpine spruce-fir; low-gradient mountain stream reaches; ponderosa pine; and Great Plains streams and riparian areas. Vulnerability to nonclimate and climate stressors for these priority ecosystems is assessed. Criteria used to assess vulnerability include ecosystem traits related to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the ecosystem. We engaged scientists through an expert review to vet the vulnerability rankings and confidence in the assessment. Aquatic ecosystems were the most vulnerable priority ecosystem, and alpine ecosystems had higher vulnerability than lower elevation terrestrial ecosystems. The narrative for each priority ecosystem describes the nature of the vulnerability to climate change. Keywords: low-gradient mountain stream; subalpine spruce-fir; aquatic, riparian, and wetland ecosystems in glaciated valleys; alpine turf and dwarf-shrubland; Great Plains stream reach; ponderosa pine Cover photos by Robert Rice. All Rocky Mountain Research Station publications are published by U.S. Forest Service employees and are in the public domain and available at no cost. Even though U.S. Forest Service publications are not copyrighted, they are formatted according to U.S. Department of Agriculture standards and research findings and formatting cannot be altered in reprints. Altering content or formatting, including the cover and title page, is strictly prohibited. Acknowledgments We would like to acknowledge funding from the USFS Climate Change Advisor’s Office. We thank Hector Galbraith for his assistance in using his vulnerability assessment method and critiquing our modifications for the Rocky Mountain Region. We also acknowledge Lisa-Natalie Anjozian for her editing on the draft narratives. We acknowledge, in particular, the technical experts who reviewed the narratives and assessed the vulnerability and confidence for each narrative: Gregor Auble, Michael Battaglia, Jill Baron, William Bowman, Shannon Brewer, Jonathan Coop, Kate Dwire, Kelly Elder, Hector Galbraith, Carol Howe, Andrew Kratz, Noah Molotch, Robert Musselman, Jason Neff, Laura Perry, David Peterson, Leroy Poff, Frank Rahel, William Romme, Wayne Shepperd, Thomas Veblen, Mark Weinhold, and Ellen Wohl. We appreciate greatly the three reviewers who reviewed the entire General Technical Report: Greg Aplet, Sarah Sawyer, and Robert Hall. We would also like to thank Cynthia Moser for her careful editing of the final draft of the manuscript. Authors Janine R. Rice is a Research Ecologist with Rice Consulting LLC in Fort Collins, Colorado. Linda A. Joyce is a Research Ecologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Human Dimensions Research Program in Fort Collins, Colorado. Claudia Regan was the Regional Ecologist in the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, Regional Office in Golden, Colorado. David Winters (retired) was the Regional Fisheries Program Manager and Aquatic Ecologist in the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, Regional Office in Golden, Colorado. Rick Truex is the Regional Wildlife Program Leader in the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, Regional Office in Golden, Colorado. Contents Chapter 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 Janine R. Rice and Linda A. Joyce Assessing Vulnerability ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Assessing Vulnerability of Priority Ecosystems in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region ...........................................2 Regional Focus and Priority Ecosystems of the Rocky Mountain Region ........................................................................2 Vulnerability Assessment Framework, Expert Review, Manager Workshop ....................................................................3 Intended Audience and Potential Uses ....................................................................................................................................6 References ..............................................................................................................................................................................7 Chapter 2. Climate Overview for the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region ...................9 Linda A. Joyce and Janine R. Rice Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................9 Recent and Historical Climate—State-Level Summaries ........................................................................................10 Historical and Recent Climate at the Scale of a National Forest .............................................................................14 Projecting Climate Over the Next 100 Years ..........................................................................................................14 Modeling the Climate .................................................................................................................................................14 Understanding Climate Scenarios and Projections ......................................................................................................15 Climate Projections for the Rocky Mountain Region....................................................................................................16 Changing Climate, Changing Risks ........................................................................................................................17 References ............................................................................................................................................................21 Chapter 3. Alpine Turf and Dwarf-Shrubland Ecosystems: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region .........................23 Janine R. Rice, Claudia Regan, Dave Winters, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................24 Vulnerability of Alpine Turf and Dwarf-Shrubland Ecosystems to Nonclimate Stressors .........................................27 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................27 Current Status and Human Influences ...................................................................................................................28 Invasive and Nonnative Species ..................................................................................................................................29 Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition ...............................................................................................................................29 Dust on Snow .............................................................................................................................................................29 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors .....................................................................................30 Factors that Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................30 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ................................................................................................30 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................................................................31 Vulnerability of Alpine Turf and Dwarf-Shrubland Ecosystems to Climate Stressors ................................................31 Capacity for Range Shift ..............................................................................................................................................31 Elevation Potential for Range Shift ...............................................................................................................................32 Ecosystem Connectivity ..............................................................................................................................................32 Vulnerability of Cold-adapted, Foundation, or Keystone Species to Climate Change .............................................33 American Pika ............................................................................................................................................................33 Alpine Turf and Dwarf-Shrubland Vegetation ..............................................................................................................34 Pollinators ...................................................................................................................................................................35 Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events ...................................................................................................................36 Sensitivity to Drought ..................................................................................................................................................36 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ..........................................................................................................................................36 Sensitivity to Freeze Date Variability and Earlier Snowmelt ..........................................................................................37 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................................38 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................38 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ........................................................................................39 ii Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime .....................................................................................................39 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ....................................................................................................40 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa .....................................41 Drought and Dust on Snow, Warmer Temperatures, Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition .........................................41 Climate and Fire ...................................................................................................................................................42 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Alpine Turf and Dwarf-Shrubland Ecosystems .......................................42 References ............................................................................................................................................................45 Chapter 4. Aquatic, Riparian, and Wetland Ecosystems in Glaciated Valleys: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region .....52 Janine R. Rice, Dave Winters, Claudia Regan, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................53 Vulnerability of Aquatic, Riparian, and Wetland Ecosystems in Glaciated Valleys to Nonclimate Stressors ............55 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................55 Current Status and Human Influences ...................................................................................................................56 Invasive and Nonnative Species ..................................................................................................................................57 Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition ...............................................................................................................................57 Dust on Snow .............................................................................................................................................................58 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors .....................................................................................58 Factors That Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ............................................................................................58 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ...............................................................................................59 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................................................................59 Vulnerability of Aquatic, Riparian, and Wetland Ecosystems in Glaciated Valleys to Climate Stressors ..................60 Capacity for Network Shift ..........................................................................................................................................60 Elevation Potential for Habitat Shift .............................................................................................................................60 Fragmentation ............................................................................................................................................................60 Vulnerability of Cold-Adapted, Foundation, or Keystone Species to Climate Change ............................................................61 Cold-Adapted Amphibians ..........................................................................................................................................62 Cold-Adapted Macroinvertebrates ...............................................................................................................................63 Cold-Water Native Fish ...............................................................................................................................................63 Riparian and Wetland Vegetation ................................................................................................................................64 Pollinators ...................................................................................................................................................................64 Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events ...................................................................................................................64 Sensitivity to Drought ..................................................................................................................................................64 Sensitivity to Floods ....................................................................................................................................................65 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ..........................................................................................................................................66 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................................66 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................66 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ........................................................................................67 Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime .....................................................................................................67 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ....................................................................................................68 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa .....................................69 Drought, Dust on Snow, Warmer Temperatures, Atmospheric Deposition ....................................................................69 Warming and Invasive Species ....................................................................................................................................71 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Aquatic, Riparian, and Wetland Ecosystems in Glaciated Valleys ..........71 References ............................................................................................................................................................74 Chapter 5. Subalpine Spruce-Fir Ecosystems: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region .................................81 Janine R. Rice, Claudia Regan, Dave Winters, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................82 Vulnerability of Subalpine Spruce-Fir Ecosystems to Nonclimate Stressors ............................................................85 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................85 Current Status and Human Influences .........................................................................................................................85 iii Invasive and Nonnative Species ..................................................................................................................................86 Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition ...............................................................................................................................87 Fire .............................................................................................................................................................................87 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors .....................................................................................88 Factors That Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ............................................................................................88 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Disturbances .........................................................................................89 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors ........................................................................................................................89 Vulnerability of Subalpine Spruce-Fir Ecosystems to Climate Stressors ..................................................................90 Capacity for Range Shift ..............................................................................................................................................90 Southern Limit Proximity .............................................................................................................................................90 Elevation Potential for Range Shift ...............................................................................................................................90 Connectivity ...............................................................................................................................................................91 Vulnerability of Cold-Adapted, Foundation, or Keystone Species to Climate Change .............................................91 Engelmann Spruce and Subalpine Fir ..........................................................................................................................91 Cold-Adapted Understory Vegetation ..........................................................................................................................92 Birds and Mammals ....................................................................................................................................................93 Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events ...................................................................................................................94 Sensitivity to Drought ..................................................................................................................................................94 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ..........................................................................................................................................95 Sensitivity to Freeze Dates ...........................................................................................................................................95 Sensitivity to Wind ......................................................................................................................................................96 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................................96 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................96 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ........................................................................................97 Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime .....................................................................................................97 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ....................................................................................................98 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate the Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa .............................100 Bark Beetle Outbreaks and Warmer Temperatures .....................................................................................................100 Fire, Drought, and Warmer Temperatures ..................................................................................................................101 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Spruce-Fir Ecosystems ........................................................................101 References ..........................................................................................................................................................104 Chapter 6. Low-Gradient Mountain Stream Reaches: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region .............................................112 Janine R. Rice, Dave Winters, Claudia Regan, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................113 Vulnerability of Low-Gradient Mountain Stream Reaches to Nonclimate Stressors ..............................................115 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors ...........................................................................................115 Current Status and Human Influences .................................................................................................................116 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................................119 Factors That Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ..........................................................................................119 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................119 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors .................................................................................................................120 Vulnerability of Low-Gradient Mountain Stream Reaches to Climate Stressors ....................................................121 Capacity for Network Shift ........................................................................................................................................121 Elevation Shift Potential for Stream Network Habitats ................................................................................................121 Fragmentation ..........................................................................................................................................................122 Vulnerability of Cold-Adapted, Foundation, or Keystone Species to Climate Change ...........................................123 Beaver.......................................................................................................................................................................124 Cold-Water Native Fish .............................................................................................................................................124 Amphibians ..............................................................................................................................................................126 Benthic Macroinvertebrates ......................................................................................................................................126 Riparian Plants ..........................................................................................................................................................127 iv Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events .................................................................................................................128 Sensitivity to Drought ...............................................................................................................................................129 Sensitivity to Floods ..................................................................................................................................................129 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ........................................................................................................................................130 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................................131 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change .................................................................................131 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................133 Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime ...................................................................................................133 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ..................................................................................................134 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa ...................................135 Climate Change and Disturbance ..............................................................................................................................135 Climate Change and Human Water Use ....................................................................................................................136 Climate Change and Water Quality ...........................................................................................................................136 Climate Change and Nonnative or Invasive Species ..................................................................................................136 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Low-Gradient Mountain Stream Reaches ............................................137 References ..........................................................................................................................................................139 Chapter 7. Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region ..................................................................148 Janine R. Rice, Claudia Regan, Dave Winters, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................148 Vulnerability of Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems to Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................152 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors ...........................................................................................152 Current Status and Human Influences .................................................................................................................152 Invasive and Nonnative Species ................................................................................................................................154 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................................154 Factors That Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ..........................................................................................154 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ..............................................................................................155 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors .................................................................................................................156 Vulnerability of Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems to Climate Stressors .........................................................................156 Capacity for Range Shift ............................................................................................................................................156 Southern Limit Proximity ...........................................................................................................................................157 Elevational Range Shift Potential ...............................................................................................................................157 Connectivity ............................................................................................................................................................157 Vulnerability of Cold-adapted, Foundation, or Keystone Species to Climate Change ...........................................158 Ponderosa Pine .........................................................................................................................................................158 Birds and Mammals ..................................................................................................................................................159 Understory Vegetation ...............................................................................................................................................160 Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events .................................................................................................................................161 Sensitivity to Drought ................................................................................................................................................161 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ........................................................................................................................................162 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................................163 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ..................................................................................163 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................164 Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime ...................................................................................................164 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ..................................................................................................164 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa ...................................166 Climate and Fire .......................................................................................................................................................166 Climate and Bark Beetle Outbreaks ...........................................................................................................................167 Climate and Invasive Species ....................................................................................................................................168 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Ponderosa Pine Ecosystems ................................................................168 References ..........................................................................................................................................................170 v Chapter 8. Great Plains Streams and Riparian Areas: Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region .............................................179 Janine R. Rice, Dave Winters, Claudia Regan, Rick Truex, and Linda A. Joyce Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................180 Vulnerability of Great Plains Streams to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................184 Summary of Key Vulnerabilities to Nonclimate Stressors ...........................................................................................184 Current Status and Human Influences .................................................................................................................185 Water Use .................................................................................................................................................................186 Invasive and Nonnative Species ................................................................................................................................186 Intrinsic Resilience of Ecosystem to Nonclimate Stressors ...................................................................................187 Factors That Enhance Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors ..........................................................................................187 Factors That Lower Resilience to Nonclimate Stressors .............................................................................................188 Future Trends of Nonclimate Stressors .................................................................................................................188 Vulnerability of Great Plains Streams to Climate Stressors ...................................................................................189 Ecosystem Capacity for Network Shift .......................................................................................................................189 Elevational and Latitudinal Shift Potential ..................................................................................................................189 Fragmentation ..........................................................................................................................................................189 Vulnerability of Foundation or Keystone Species to Climate Change ...................................................................190 Fish ..........................................................................................................................................................................191 Benthic Macroinvertebrate Species ...........................................................................................................................191 Riparian Plant Communities and Riparian-Dependent Animals .................................................................................191 Sensitivity to Extreme Climatic Events .................................................................................................................192 Sensitivity to Drought ................................................................................................................................................192 Sensitivity to Floods ..................................................................................................................................................193 Sensitivity to Extreme Heat ........................................................................................................................................193 Intrinsic Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ....................................................................................................195 Factors That Strengthen Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ..................................................................................195 Factors That Weaken Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change ......................................................................................196 Dependence on Specific Hydrological Regime ...................................................................................................196 Likelihood of Managing Climate Change Effects ..................................................................................................197 Potential for Climate Change to Exacerbate Effects of Nonclimate Stressors, or Vice Versa ...................................198 Warmer Temperatures and Invasive Species ..............................................................................................................198 Drought, Warmer Temperatures, and Human Water Use ...........................................................................................199 Summary of the Regional Vulnerability of Great Plains Streams and Riparian Areas ............................................199 References ..........................................................................................................................................................202 Appendix A: Assumptions and Structure of the Rocky Mountain Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment .........208 Appendix B: Criteria and Rationale for Assessing Ecosystem Vulnerability to Nonclimate and Climate Stressors ..210 Appendix C: Vulnerability Scoring Categories .....................................................................................................216 vi Chapter 1. Introduction Janine R. Rice and Linda A. Joyce Assessing Vulnerability__________________________________________ One of the first steps in the process of adapting to climate change is assessing the vulnerability of natural ecosystems and species to climate change (National Research Council 2011; USDA FS 2011). Conducting vulnerability assessments and developing adaptation options are a part of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USFS) Roadmap to Climate Change (USDA FS 2011). Vulnerability of a natural resource can be defined as a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which the natural resource is exposed, and its sensitivity, resilience, and adaptive capacity (Glick et al. 2011). Although this definition offers the conceptual components, no standard methodological approach to assessing vulnerability currently exists (USGCRP 2011). Assessing vulnerability in a consistent and transparent manner is critical where public review of land management planning occurs and where adaptation practices may be implemented with partners across ownership boundaries or within a larger region (USDA FS 2011). Vulnerability assessments in natural resource management have focused on species, habitats, ecosystems, watersheds, or ecosystem processes, or a combination thereof (Bagne et al. 2011; Case and Lawler 2011; Furniss et al. 2013; Galbraith and Price 2011; McCarthy and Enquist 2011; Rice et al. 2012; Swanston et al. 2011, 2016; Young et al. 2012). Various biological and ecological traits and processes have been used in these assessment tools to evaluate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This variety of approaches can make comparisons across as- sessments within a geographic area difficult. The legacy of past human activities and current underlying ecological stresses, often not considered, can result in a great vari- ation in the status of habitats, influencing adaptive capacity and vulnerability within a geographic region. Many of the methods have focused strictly on the physical or ecological vulnerabilities and have not integrated social vulnerability into the natural resource vulnerability assessment. Although the objective of vulnerability assessments is typically stated as assisting managers in developing adaptation options, many of the approaches for assessing vulnerability do not help with the difficult conversa- tions about what should be adapted; yet conversations are needed among scientists, resource managers, and decisionmakers to identify and implement adaptation actions (Joyce and Millar 2014; Yuen et al. 2013). There is a need for a structured vulner- ability assessment approach that can bring together the current literature on climate change vulnerability, engage experts in vetting the scientific information available to assess vulnerability, and initiate the dialogue with managers on what is vulnerable and how management may address these vulnerabilities. USDA Forest Service RMRS-GTR-376. 2018 1 Assessing Vulnerability of Priority Ecosystems in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region______________________ Incorporating ecosystem processes as well as species and habitat considerations into vulnerability assessments can begin the process of identifying adaptation options to maintain and enhance ecosystem services under climate change. In 2008, the Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences and the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife, with funding from the Wildlife Conservation Society, began a cooperative ef- fort to determine: (1) vulnerability to climate change of Massachusetts fish and wildlife habitats and species in greatest need of conservation, and (2) potential adaptations of conservation and management practices (Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences and Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife 2010). This approach was further developed when the Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences and the National Wildlife Federation collaborated with the Northeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies and Federal agencies. Through this effort, a consistent and transparent structure was developed to identify vulnerabilities of key habitats in the northeastern United States (Galbraith 2011; Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences and National Wildlife Federation 2013). The framework also included current stressors that are a focus of resource management. In addition to these two applications in the northeastern United States, this assessment framework has been used for assessments of habitat and species in the Gunnison Basin in Colorado (Neely et al. 2011) and the Badlands National Park in South Dakota (Amberg et al. 2012). We build on the work of this northeastern multi-institution collaboration and recent applications to extend the framework to consistently assess vulnerability of select aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across a large geographic region. In addition, we engaged subject-matter experts to evaluate the vulnerabilities, and managers to initi- ate consideration of adaptation actions. This collaboration between the USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station (hereafter RMRS) and the USFS Rocky Mountain Region, as with the northeastern collaboration, has the goal of increasing the capabilities of resource agencies to manage natural resources under climate change, and to increase the dialogue among resource managers across an ecologically varied region. Regional Focus and Priority Ecosystems of the Rocky Mountain Region We assess ecosystem vulnerability at the geographic scale of the USFS Rocky Mountain Region (fig. 1.1). Within this Region, 17 national forests and 7 national grasslands have been administratively combined into 11 units. These 11 administrative units cover 27.8 million ac and include 91 wetland and upland terrestrial ecological systems (Comer et al. 2003). These public lands are managed for multiple resources: timber, water, range, recreation, and more (USDA FS n.d.). Elevations range from about 2,500 ft on the central mixed-grass prairie to more than 14,000 ft in the alpine tundra of the Rocky Mountains. The mountainous areas receive the most precipitation, and the driest areas are on the Great Plains (Nebraska, Kansas) and the Intermountain Basins in Wyoming. Mean annual temperatures are coolest in the highest elevations, well below freezing for some months, and warmest in the lower elevations of the Great Plains. 2 USDA Forest Service RMRS-GTR-376. 2018

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identified in the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region: alpine turf and dwarf-shrubland; aquatic, .. Current Status and Human Influences .
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