Climate Change Risks in Brazil PDF
Preview Climate Change Risks in Brazil
Carlos A. Nobre Jose A. Marengo Wagner R. Soares Editors Climate Change Risks in Brazil Climate Change Risks in Brazil Carlos A. Nobre • Jose A. Marengo Wagner R. Soares Editors Climate Change Risks in Brazil Editors Carlos A. Nobre Jose A. Marengo Institute for Advanced Studies National Center for Monitoring and Early University of São Paulo Warning of Natural Disasters São Paulo, Brazil São Paulo, Brazil Wagner R. Soares National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters São Paulo, Brazil ISBN 978-3-319-92880-7 ISBN 978-3-319-92881-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018949914 © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifcally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microflms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specifc statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affliations. Cover Illustration: Germano Ribeiro Neto, CEMADEN, São Paulo, Brazil This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland This book is dedicated to my wife Ana Amelia for her endless love, support, wise advice, and encouragement. It is also dedicated to my 6-year-old grandson Rafael, hoping that his generation will have the wisdom and determination that lacked to my generation to put our Planet on a sustainable pathway. Carlos A. Nobre This book is dedicated to my beloved wife Angela Cristina and son Jose Antonio, without whose love, encouragement, support, and inspiration I would never have made it this far. I also wish to dedicate this book to my mother and brothers for their continuous love and support all the way since the beginning. Jose A. Marengo This book is dedicated to my father Antônio Flávio de Almeida Soares (In Memoriam), my mother Lígia Soares, my family, and work colleagues for the support received in the elaboration of this scientifc material. Wagner R. Soares Foreword Political decision makers have to decide how much effort to spend on countering the impacts of climate change. That decision must be informed by a full risk assess- ment, and that assessment takes three different approaches. We need frst to estab- lish what we human beings are doing to our climate. Second, we must establish how the climate is likely to change in response to our actions, and how these changes will affect us and our essential habitat. Third, we need to examine carefully what we, in one country and also between countries, might do to each other. We should not be in any doubt that climate change poses a great risk to all societ- ies, and to our efforts at poverty eradication and economic prosperity. Eventually, this will threaten global civilization. But we need to get beyond that level of under- standing, to look at specifc risks that are possible threats to us. In doing this, we need to start with an approach not commonly used by climate scientists. If you own or manage a house or other building, you would take out an insurance policy to guard against the risks of burglary or fre. Even though these are low prob- ability events, the impact for you would be very great if one of these events did happen. Who are the experts at evaluating these low probability but high impact events? It is the actuaries, the statisticians working in the insurance and re-insurance industries, who use whatever scientifc, social, and historical information available to evaluate the likelihood of these events. Of course, with climate change the likeli- hood of high impact events happening is dependent on time. As the average global temperature and the sea level continue to rise, so will the impact of extreme weather events, such as storms at sea fooding further inland or hot summer days producing greater heat stress to populations. People have limited toleration for combinations of high temperature and high humidity. Coastal cities, particularly those at the mouths of large rivers, will have thresholds in the rate of sea level rise that they can deal with. These threats, viewed holistically, have unprecedented implications for humanity. Where will the 100 million people who live around the Ganges estuary, in Calcutta and Bangladesh, relocate to when these areas become unlivable? vii viii Foreword In this book, the authors take this risk analysis approach to analyze in particular the impacts of climate change for health, energy, and biodiversity in Brazil, and regional risks to the Amazon and North Eastern Brazil. Its importance cannot be underestimated. The editors have brought together a full range of appropriate experts to evaluate the risks that Brazil faces unless actions are taken quickly across the whole world to manage the challenges. All countries need to engage actively in the business of defossilizing their econo- mies, and where possible not only in avoiding deforestation, but in reforestation to create more carbon sinks. The era of fossil fuels has provided a massive boost to global economies since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Coal, oil, and gas have been an abundant source of the energy needed in those revolutionary develop- ments. And now we know that, together with deforestation, burning fossil fuels is the major cause of the increased content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This increase captures more of the energy from the earth that would otherwise escape into space, causing global warming. The new era, the era of clean fossil-fuel- free energy, is the way forward, with the co-beneft of providing clean air for all to breathe, free of carbon particulate matter, NOx and SOx. Renewable energy is already competitive in the market place for most countries in the world. Energy is the largest global industry: the clean energy sector provides a new era for wealth creation too. The pledge of the Paris Agreement, to keep the average global temperature rise to less than 2ºC and to aim for no more than 1.5ºC rise, is now a common commit- ment of 195 signatory countries. No other issue has brought such universal agree- ment for action. But this agreement is not matched by universal actions to meet the challenge. This book underlines the importance for all of us, as individuals, as urban, regional and national citizens, as city mayors and regional governors, and as politicians and heads of government, to act now to help to avoid the severe risks set out here. Cambridge, UK Sir David King Preface In a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the country has a high likelihood (over 70%) of suffering a greater than 4ºC temperature rise before the end of the century. For high degrees of global warming exceeding 4ºC in relation to the pre-industrial era, climatic conditions in large areas of Brazil may become dangerous for the population: mean temperatures may reach 30ºC—double the current global average—increasing the risk of dying from heat stress, particularly for infants and the elderly. Maximum temperatures above the human body’s ability to adapt will reduce labor productivity in sectors like agriculture and civil construction. In some regions, heat waves and changes in the rainfall regime may increase the spatial-temporal incidence of diseases. Aside from the serious impacts on human health, higher warming rates may increase the risk of extreme or even catastrophic events like species extinction, reduce the availability of water and hydropower, and severely impact food produc- tion, limiting the crop area available for major agricultural crops in Brazil, severely limiting the country’s role as a key provider of global food security. The aim of this book is to explain how changes in the physical climate can lead to multiple complex changes in human systems, many of which are hard to predict, and which tend to have adverse consequences when the changes fall far outside the normal range of variability. This study aimed to map extreme temperature increase scenarios in Brazil and their impacts on four key sectors: agriculture, health, biodiversity, and energy. It also examines in-depth likely consequences of high degrees of warming for two critical regions in Brazil, the Amazon and Northeast Brazil. The assessments of climate risks for high degrees of warming were accomplished through a careful review of the literature and climate projections, including relative risk estimates. This synthesis, which summarizes the state of the art of knowledge on the subject, provides decision-makers with risk analysis tools: events that are unlikely to occur but could have signifcant and even catastrophic consequences need to be under- stood and incorporated to public policy planning. São Paulo, Brazil Carlos A. Nobre Jose A. Marengo ix Acknowledgments The book Climate Change Risks in Brazil is a result of contributions from a wide range of experts from across Brazil. We thank everyone who contributed to its rich- ness and multidisciplinary outlook. It has been written by a team from the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters CEMADEN, the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation EMBRAPA, the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro UFRJ, the Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development FBDS, the National Public Health School at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation FIOCRUZ, and the National Institute for Space Research, including Carlos A. Nobre, Jose A. Marengo, Wagner R. Soares (Editors), Eduardo Assad, Sandra Hacon, Fabio Scarano, Roberto Schaeffer, and Gilvan Sampaio, leading authors of the various chapters. Insightful comments were provided by scientifc peer reviewers. We thank Dan Bernie, Stoecio Maia, Jurandir Zullo Junior, Andrea Sobral, Eliane Ignotti, Donald Wilhite, Rita Vieira, Jose Maria Cardoso da Silva, Rafael Loyola, Chris Jones, Sergio Margulis, and Luis Alberto da Cunha Saporta for their review of early ver- sions of the various book chapters. The report was commissioned by the United Kingdom Embassy in Brasilia, Brazil, that was funding the research project Climate Change Risks - Limits to Adaptation. Results presented in this book were derived from research funded by the National Institute of Science and Technology (INCT) for Climate Change Phase 1 under the Brazilian National Council for Scientifc and Technological Development (CNPq) Grant 573797/2008-0 and the São Paulo Research Support Foundation (FAPESP) Grant 2008/57719-9; and Phase 2 under CNPq Grant 465501/2014-1, and FAPESP Grants 2014/50848-9; the National Coordination for High Level Education and Training (CAPES) Grant 16/2014. We are also grateful to the Brazilian Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (BPBES) for support xi xii Acknowledgments (CNPq; project: 405593/2015-5). The authors also would like to thank the Brazilian Network of Climate Change (Rede CLIMA) for its collaboration in performing studies and analyses that helped in the elaboration of the chapters. Carlos A. Nobre, Jose A. Marengo, and Wagner R. Soares provided valuable guidance and oversight. We would like to thank Elisangela Rodrigues de Sousa and Ana Paula Soares for outreach efforts to partners, the scientifc community, and the media. São Paulo, Brazil Carlos A. Nobre Jose A. Marengo Wagner R. Soares
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