Climate Change in the Midwest: Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation

349 Pages·2013·10.985 MB·English

by  Sara C. Pryor

Clim a te Change in the mid west
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Clim a te Change
in the mid west
Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation
Edited by S. C. Pryor
Indiana University Press
Bloomington and Indianapolis
This book is a publication of aspects—Middle West. 3. Climatic changes—Risk
assessment—Middle West. 4. Plants—Effect of global
Indiana University Press warming on—Middle West. 5. Vegetation and climate.
601 North Morton Street 6. Middle West—Climate. 7. Water levels—Great Lakes
Bloomington, Indiana 47404- 3797 USA (North America) I. Pryor, S. C., [date]
QC984.M53C55 2012
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© 2013 by Indiana University Press
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No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Climate change in the Midwest : impacts, risks, vul-
nerability, and adaptation / edited by S.C. Pryor.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-253-00682-0 (cloth : alk. paper)
ISBN 978-0-253-00774-2 (eb) 1. Climatic changes—
Middle West. 2. Climatic changes—Environmental
For Barbara Pryor, with love always.
“What we need is enough mitigation to avoid unmanageable climate
change and enough adaptation to manage unavoidable climate change.”
—John Holdren, U.S. Presidential Science Advisor (2010).
Presentation to the 2010 Kavli Prize Science Forum, Oslo, Norway
Contents
preface ix
acknowledgments xi
abbreviations and acronyms xiii
1. Climate Change Impacts, Risks, 7. Vulnerability of Soil Carbon Reservoirs in
Vulnerability, and Adaptation: An the Midwest to Climate Change 92
Introduction 1
8. Michigan’s Tart Cherry Industry:
2. The Midwestern United States: Vulnerability to Climate Variability
Socioeconomic Context and Physical and Change 104
Climate 12
9. Climate Change Vulnerability and Impacts
on Human Health 117
3. Vulnerability and Adaptability of
Agricultural Systems in the Southeast
10. Intra- Urban Variations in Vulnerability
United States to Climate Variability and
Associated with Extreme Heat Events in
Climate Change 48
Relationship to a Changing Climate 134
4. Uncertainty and Hysteresis in Adapting to
11. Historical and Projected Changes in
Global Climate Change 59
Human Heat Stress in the Midwestern
United States 146
5. Climate- Agriculture Vulnerability
Assessment for the Midwestern United 12. Vulnerability of the Electricity and
States 69 Water Sectors to Climate Change in
the Midwest 158
6. Potential Future Impacts of Climate on
Row Crop Production in the Great Lakes 13. The Drought Risk Management Paradigm
Region 82 in the Context of Climate Change 178
vii
14. Local Adaptation to Changing Flood 17. Climate Change Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability,
Vulnerability in the Midwest 190 and Adaptation in the Midwestern United
States: What Next? 230
15. The Response of Great Lakes Water Levels
and Potential Impacts of Future Climate
list of contributors 259
Scenarios 203
index 263
16. Vulnerability of the Energy System to
Extreme Wind Speeds and Icing 213 Color plates appear after pages 78 and 174.
viii contents
Preface
Informing effective responses to cli- change). We provide state- of- the- art, spa-
mate change is predicated on (1) advance- tially disaggregated information regarding
ment of fundamental understanding of the historical, current, and possible fu-
climate science, including development ture climate states within the region with
of projections at scales suitable for impact a particular focus on extremes, and we
assessments; (2) mitigation activities de- undertake assessments of the risks and
signed to limit the magnitude of climate vulnerabilities of critical socioeconomic
change; and (3) efforts to understand the and environmental systems in the region
risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities to climate change and variability. Key
posed by climate change and thus to de- sectors discussed herein are agriculture,
velop optimal adaptation strategies. Re- human health, water resources, energy,
search presented in this volume is focused and infrastructure, each of which exhibits
on identifying and quantifying the major current vulnerability to climate variability
vulnerabilities to climate change as mani- that may be amplified under current cli-
fest in the mid west ern United States and mate change trajectories. Challenges and
thus lays the foundation for addressing opportunities in developing local and re-
the “adaptation gap” (i.e., the difference gional strategies for addressing the risks
between the scale of efforts to mitigate posed by climate change are discussed in
anthropogenic forcing of climate and the context of developing an integrative
the likely scale and magnitude of climate policy for the region.
ix