Climate Change in Sustainable Water Resources Management

417 Pages·2022·6.04 MB·English

by  Omid Bozorg-Haddad

Springer Water
SeriesEditor
AndreyKostianoy,RussianAcademyofSciences,P.P.ShirshovInstituteof
Oceanology,Moscow,Russia
EditorialBoard
AngelaCarpenter,SchoolofEarth&Environment,UniversityofLeeds,Leeds,
WestYorkshire,UK
TamimYounos,GreenWater-InfrastructureAcademy,Blacksburg,VA,USA
AndreaScozzari,AreadellariceraCNRdiPisa,CNRInstituteofGeosciencesand
EarthResources,Pisa,Italy
StefanoVignudelli,CNR-IstitutodiBiofisica,Pisa,Italy
AlexeiKouraev,LEGOS,UniversitédeToulouse,TOULOUSECEDEX9,France
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Omid Bozorg-Haddad
Editor
Climate Change
in Sustainable Water
Resources Management
Editor
OmidBozorg-Haddad
IrrigationandReclamationEngineering
UniversityofTehran
Karaj,Iran
ISSN 2364-6934 ISSN 2364-8198 (electronic)
SpringerWater
ISBN 978-981-19-1897-1 ISBN 978-981-19-1898-8 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-1898-8
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Preface
Oneofthemostimportantandcomplexconcernsofthepresentandfuturecenturies
is climate change. The phenomenon of climate change is not confined to our era,
andevidenceindicatesthattheEarthhasfacedclimatechangeindifferentperiods,
although this issue in the present era attracts the attention of many of the world’s
scientific and political societies. Any change in the climate can be due to natural
climaticchangeortheresultofhumanactivities.Suchachangecanoccurintemper-
ature,rainfall,humidity,weatherpatterns,wind,radiation,andotherclimaticvari-
ables.However,evenasmallchangeintheclimateconditionscanleadtotangible
changesinhydrologyandthesensiblewaterresourcesystems.Theimpactsofclimate
change on water resources include the changes in rainfall and runoff patterns, sea
level,landuse,waterdemand,andmanyotheraspects.Thenegativeeffectsofthis
phenomenononwaterresourcescancauseirreparabledamages.Thus,identification
oftheseeffectsandtheirreasonsisessential.Investigationofsuchchangescanfacil-
itatethestudiesonaseriesofhydroclimatic,economic,andsocialproblemssuchas
droughts,floods,foods,andhumanmigration.
In this book, to gain a comprehensive understanding of climate change, water
expertscanbenefitthecontentofthreeseparatedsectionsaccordingtotheirback-
ground.InthePartI,basicconceptsofclimatechange,itsnaturalandanthropogenic
drivers, and its effects on water resources, from both quality and quantity aspects,
arediscussed.Resultsoftheaccreditedresearchesshowthatgreenhousegasestake
the first place in the consistent growth of the radiative forcing and the Earth’s
energy level since the 1950s. Increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation
havereducedthedischargeofsurfacerunoffsindifferentpartsoftheworld,which
leadstoadeclineinthelevelofgroundwateraquifers.InPartII,climaticscenarios
and IPCC reports are discussed. In order to analyze future climate conditions in
water resource studies, we explain several categories of climate models, including
EnergyBalanceModels(EBMs),radiative-convectivemodels,andGeneralCircula-
tionModels(GCMs).Beingmostcomprehensive,GCMshavebeenwidelyapplied
forfutureclimatechangeprojectionsusingdifferentscenariosofpopulationgrowth,
greenhousegasemissions,andland-usechanges.Asthefinalstepinclimatechange
v
vi Preface
studies, downscaling method, including statistical and dynamic, is explained thor-
oughly.ThelastPartfocusesonwaterresourcemodelingunderclimechangecondi-
tions. To broaden the viewpoint of experts on available mitigation and adaptation
measures,numerouscasestudiesofallcontinentsontheeartharepresented.Gener-
ally, this book is arranged in a manner to meet the need of readers with diverse
backgroundthroughchoosingthemostappropriatesection.
Karaj,Iran OmidBozorg-Haddad
Contents
1 OverviewofClimateChangeinWaterResourcesManagement
Studies ....................................................... 1
OmidBozorg-Haddad,SabaJafari,andXuefengChu
PartI IntroductiontoClimateChangewithFocusonWater
Resources
2 BasicConcepts ................................................ 31
ArezooBoroomandnia, OmidBozorg-Haddad, ScottBaum,
ChristopherNdehedehe,KefengZhang,andVeljkoProdanovic
3 ClimateChangeDrivers ....................................... 59
HosseinAhmadi, OmidBozorg-Haddad, StevenLucas,
VeljkoProdanovic,andKefengZhang
4 TheEffectofClimateChangeonWaterResources ............... 95
ArmanOliazadeh,OmidBozorg-Haddad,HugoA.Loáiciga,
SajjadAhmad,andVijayP.Singh
PartII ClimaticScenariosandPracticalAnalysis
5 ReviewonIPCCReports ...................................... 123
AnisHasani,OmidBozorg-Haddad,ScottBaum,StevenLucas,
andAminSoltani
6 IntroductiontoKeyFeaturesofClimateModels ................. 153
MahsaJahandidehTehrani, OmidBozorg-Haddad,
SantoshMurlidharPingal,MohammedAchite,andVijayP.Singh
7 DownscalingMethods ......................................... 179
ArashYoosefdoost, OmidBozorg-Haddad, JieChen,
KwokWingChau,andFahmidaKhan
vii
viii Contents
PartIII ModelingtoPlanMitigationandAdaptationMeasures
8 HydrologicalModels .......................................... 283
IcenYoosefdoost, OmidBozorg-Haddad, VijayP.Singh,
andKwokWingChau
9 MitigationandAdaptationMeasures ............................ 331
SaharBaghban, OmidBozorg-Haddad, RonnyBerndtsson,
MikeHobbins,andNadhirAl-Ansari
10 CaseStudiesAroundtheWorld ................................ 361
BaharehHossein-Panahi,OmidBozorg-Haddad,HugoLoáiciga,
SujoMalMeghwar,andMartinaZelenˇáková
Chapter 1
Overview of Climate Change in Water
Resources Management Studies
OmidBozorg-Haddad,SabaJafari,andXuefengChu
1.1 Introduction
In general, climate change takes place whenever the climate condition in a region
changescomparedtoitslong-termbehavior(KaramouzandAraghinejad2005).The
riseofglobaltemperaturesandthechangesinprecipitationpatternsaretheeffects
ofclimatechange,whichleadtoadecreaseinstreamflow.Globalclimatechangein
thefuturealsoisathreattotheworld’swaterresources,whichmakesitdifficultto
accesstheseresources.
Mirzaetal.(2003)examinedtheimpactsofglobalwarmingandclimatechange
on the possibility of flooding of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) river
basin in Bangladesh using four General Circulation Models (GCMs). The output
of the GCM models was used as an input of the Mike11-GIS hydrological model.
TheirresultsshowedanincreaseintheaverageofmaximumdischargesintheGBM,
whichpotentiallyledtoflooding.
Rosenzweig et al. (2004) assessed the influences of the changes in agricultural
waterdemandandtheavailabilityofwaterinducedbyclimatechangeonirrigation
reliabilityusingaseriesofmodels,includingtheWaterBalance(WATBAL)model
forwatersupply,theCeres-MaizeIndexModel,theSoygromodel,andtheCropwat
B
O.Bozorg-Haddad( )·S.Jafari
DepartmentofIrrigationandReclamationEngineering,FacultyofAgriculturalEngineeringand
Technology,CollegeofAgricultureandNaturalResources,UniversityofTehran,31587-77871
Karaj,Tehran,Iran
e-mail:[email protected]
S.Jafari
e-mail:[email protected]
X.Chu
DepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,Dept.2470,NorthDakotaStateUniversity,
Fargo,ND58108-6050,USA
e-mail:[email protected]
©TheAuthor(s),underexclusivelicensetoSpringerNatureSingaporePteLtd.2022 1
O.Bozorg-Haddad(ed.),ClimateChangeinSustainableWaterResourcesManagement,
SpringerWater,https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-1898-8_1
2 O.Bozorg-Haddadetal.
modelforproductoperation,andtheWaterEvaluationandPlanning(WEAP)model
for water demand forecasting, evaluation, and planning. These models were used
in conjunction with different climate change scenarios to evaluate the adaptation
strategiesofwaterresourcesinmajoragriculturalareasinArgentina,Brazil,China,
Hungary,Romania,andtheUnitedStates.Theresultsshowedthateveninrelatively
water-rich areas, the effects of global warming on agricultural water demand and
theincreasedwaterdemandduetourbanizationwouldrequireimprovedirrigation
technologyandwatermanagement.
Zhaoetal.(2005)investigatedtheresponseofclimaticvariablestogreenhouse
gasemissionsinSouthAfricabyusingtheoutputsofthreeGCMsandB2scenarios
from the set of Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES). The simulations for
most parts of South Africa indicated that by the end of the twenty-first century,
rainfallwoulddropby8.2%.Batesetal.(2008)foundfromtheirstudyontheTsha
RolpaGlacierLakeinNepalthatduetorisingtemperaturesinrecentyearsandthe
meltingofthelake’sglaciers,thelake’swaterareaincreasedfrom0.23km2in1957
to1.65km2in1997,whichaddedabout100millionm3ofwatertothelake.Sincethe
waterinthelakewasmaintainedonlybyitsicymasses,theincreaseinthisvolume
elevatedtheriskofdevastatingfloods.
By analyzing the effects of climate change on river flow in Northern China,
Zhenmei et al. (2008) also examined the trend of annual flow changes in the past
50yearsusingtheMann–Kendalltest.Theyfoundthatclimatechangereducedthe
average annual flow rate by 64% and decreased the amount of rainfall. Traynham
et al. (2010) assessed the effects of climate change and population growth on the
water resources system of the Puget region in the United States. The response of
thewaterresourcessystemtofuturewaterdemandsundertheinfluenceofclimate
change was examined for different cities in the Puget area. Three GCMs and two
emission scenarios were used to assess the region’s water supply over a 75-year
period.Theperformanceofthewatersupplysystemineachcitywasdeterminedby
thereliabilityandfirmyieldcriteria.Theresultsshowedthatclimatechangewould
reduce the future system’s yield, and the existing operation policies needed to be
changedtomeetthefuturedemand.
Tabarietal.(2011)studiedtheaverage,maximum,andminimumannualtrendsof
rainfallandtemperatureseriesat13stationsinwestern,southern,andsouthwestern
Iran for the period of 1966–2005 to understand how global warming affected the
regional climate. Their results showed that the average, maximum, and minimum
annualtemperaturesincreased0.412,0.452,and0.493°Cperdecade,respectively,
whiletherainfalltimeseriesexhibiteddifferentchangingpatterns(i.e.,increasing–
decreasingtrends)throughouttheregion.Theirstudyalsoindicatedthattherewasa
needformoreresearchonhumanimpactsontheenvironmentasafactorofclimate
change.
Georgakakosetal.(2012)assessedtheadaptivereservoirmanagementstrategies
under climate change in the Central Valley of Northern California. The reservoir
management assessment included the adaptive policy with the developed Inform
Decision Support System (INFORM DSS) and the current policy obtained from
the Department of Water Resources Planning Simulation (DWRPS). Two sets of